CutchTruth wrote: Jeff Karstens' Development

I totally agree with your stance on Karstens.  While many here seem to think that he'll be vying for the #5 role, I don't think it's at all out of the question that in April, he could be the #3.  As I've said in other places, while guys like McDonald, Liriano and even McPherson and Locke all certainly have a chance to beat out Karstens for a rotation slot, as far as I'm concerned, none of then should be considered as locks to have any specific role.

Depth depth and more depth. That is the key. The more proven innings eaters the better.

Definitely. Karstens has been a solid pitcher for a substantial period of time now.

Just like to note, that it's not "my" stance.  I didn't write that specific article so I can't take credit haha.  Thanks for reading though.

Karstens will most likely be the swing man on the staff, he hasn't been able to stay healthy as a full time starter so his top value will be spot starter, fill in for multiple starts do to an injury, and long-man in the bullpen.  He will still get many starts, but hopefully this role will keep him healthy for the duration of the season.  You have to factor in health when looking at a pitchers role.

cferrel3 wrote: Karstens will most likely be the swing man on the staff, he hasn't been able to stay healthy as a full time starter so his top value will be spot starter, fill in for multiple starts do to an injury, and long-man in the bullpen.  He will still get many starts, but hopefully this role will keep him healthy for the duration of the season.  You have to factor in health when looking at a pitchers role.

Going into Spring Training, I see him as the 3rd best pitcher on this staff... performance-wise.  Now, potential could place him 4th behind McDonald, but to pigeon hole Karstens at this point in time to a 5th/6th starter is a bit ridiculous.  Let's at least see what happens in the March.  At this point in time, based on past results, I'd have him penciled in as my #3 behind Burnett and Rodriguez.

TBayXXXVII wrote:

cferrel3 wrote: Karstens will most likely be the swing man on the staff, he hasn't been able to stay healthy as a full time starter so his top value will be spot starter, fill in for multiple starts do to an injury, and long-man in the bullpen.  He will still get many starts, but hopefully this role will keep him healthy for the duration of the season.  You have to factor in health when looking at a pitchers role.

Going into Spring Training, I see him as the 3rd best pitcher on this staff... performance-wise.  Now, potential could place him 4th behind McDonald, but to pigeon hole Karstens at this point in time to a 5th/6th starter is a bit ridiculous.  Let's at least see what happens in the March.  At this point in time, based on past results, I'd have him penciled in as my #3 behind Burnett and Rodriguez.

I think we have to wait for March for all of them.  The final three starting jobs should all be open to competition in spring training, and the three pitchers who perform the best should get the jobs.

They don't want to put Karstens in the rotation because they don't feel his arm can hold up in the rotation over a full season. I believe the plan is to keep him as the 6th starter because they can protect him there. If they need him to make a spot start now and then they can give him plenty of rest. If you read between the lines of the articles when they non tendered Karstens it's pretty clear they don't believe in his body to start for a year. This means they aren't going to start the year with Karstens in the rotation with the risk he'll blow his arm out by June from pitching every fifth day and be lost for the season. In the bullpen they can protect him. If a pitcher goes for a short DL stint they can let Karstens get 2 or 3 starts in that time and then go back to the bullpen. He'll get about 75-100 innings this year I would imagine.

I agree that Karstens was signed as a spot-starter/middle reliever. He can't be counted on as a full-time starter because of his lack of durability. I'm glad we signed him, though, as he is a versatile, proven major league pitcher.

Could just start Karstens for half the year with the plan to replace him with Cole mid-season and then move Karstens to a swing-man role.

CutchTruth wrote: Could just start Karstens for half the year with the plan to replace him with Cole mid-season and then move Karstens to a swing-man role.

Those were my thoughts exactly.  In a perfect world, Morton and Cole are both ready mid-season and we can trade Karstens (who will hopefully be having a solid season) to a contender for a decent haul.

See the issue is the Pirates likely don't think he can handle 16 starts in a row.

Look how last year broke down.

He pitched 3 starts in April and then got hurt and was out until the end of June. He then started 10 more games in a row and then broke down again where he missed some time and came back as a reliever.

I think the team wants to use him in short spurts. Such as when they want to perhaps skip someone in the rotation to give their arm a rest. If someone goes on a short DL stint where they will miss a couple of starts he will fill in. Ideally I would imagine the team doesn't want to give him more than 2 starts a month to not put a lot of burden on his body. He can get a few relief innings now and then in between.

The Pirates just don't trust Karstens body to stay healthy taking the ball every fifth day on a consistent basis.

You also won't get anything in a trade for Karstens. Teams know about his health issues and no contending team is going to use him full time as a starter. He signed for 2.5 million. Which means no team wanted to give him much more than that. 2.5 million is nothing so it shows what other teams think of him. It's a small enough salary that won't scare anyone off but teams know what they're getting so there won't be any kind of haul. Maybe you could get a C level prospect. (Usually someones 20-30) That pretty much isn't even worth doing unless the other option was just to release Karstens outright. He would probably be more valuable to the Pirates then what you would get in return in a trade.

We could just roll with a 6 man rotation.  Or like have Burnett, Wandy, and James pitch normally, then rotate the other 3 guys in the last two spots.

Or just trade Jeff Locke + prospects for Elvis Andrus.

I dunno.

CutchTruth wrote: We could just roll with a 6 man rotation.  Or like have Burnett, Wandy, and James pitch normally, then rotate the other 3 guys in the last two spots.

Or just trade Jeff Locke + prospects for Elvis Andrus.

I dunno.

If the prospects were Jameson Taillon and Alen Hanson then maybe Texas would be interested.  That is probably fair value for Andrus.  However no way would I pay that price.

If we could trade Jeff Locke for anybody of real value, we should do it asap.

gr1111 wrote: If we could trade Jeff Locke for anybody of real value, we should do it asap.

I'd keep him around for depth the first half of the season (until Cole and Morton are ready) and he should get a few starts.  If the Pirates are in contention come July I definitely think that Locke or McPherson (whoever isn't in the rotation) is used in a package to acquire something of need to help us in the second half.  A team like Minnesota that probably won't be in contention and is absolutely deperate for young pitching comes to mind.

Oh ya. Screw that price. For 2 years of Andrus.  I'll pass.  I'm working on article now about how the Pirates aren't really in a position to make a big trade.  However, they hopefully will be in 2-3 years, so I'm looking at who will realistically be available at that time.