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Pirates projected to win.......

Posted: 01/18/2013 4:18 PM

Pirates projected to win....... 


I guess I am not so crazy after all. tongue

I cant get the link to work so if you go to Bucsdugout.com and then lick on the Projecting the 2013 Pirates link.



I had an exchange with Dan Szymborski, the creator of ZiPS, on Twitter today. He has the Pirates at 75-77 wins. Cody Stomp did a similar analysis to mine and he has them at 74 wins. More optimistically, Tim Williams came up with between 81-84 wins. It’s going to be interesting.






Edit. I added two other projections.

Updated the link

Last edited 01/19/2013 11:00 AM by vinnybravo

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Posted: 01/19/2013 6:51 AM

Re: Pirates projected to win....... 


I was hoping Katoy would comment on this because he understands the numbers better than any of us. He could put it more into perspective.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 10:20 AM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


I can't get the links to work...
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Posted: 01/19/2013 10:45 AM

Re: Pirates projected to win....... 


Click on the word "analysis" and words "came up with" on the underlined text.

Last edited 01/19/2013 10:57 AM by vinnybravo

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Posted: 01/19/2013 11:15 AM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


Well the one that projects the 73-89 season is based off runs scored and runs allowed to determine a record.

It has the Pirates scoring 677 runs which is a pretty fair estimate as I think the offense will be better in 2013 than it was in 2012. A full year of Marte, adding Martin, Sanchez as a platoon, etc. That represents 26 more runs than the 651 the Pirates scored in 2012. I think they will get a little more than that but it sounds like a good number.

Where this projection falls off a cliff is the runs allowed. It projects that the team will allow 740 runs in 2013. The Pirates allowed 674 runs in 2012. That is a massive 66 run difference. That is .41 runs a game more than last year and I just don't see that happening. For one you get an entire year of Wandy Rodriguez. I assume both Burnett and Rodriguez are safe bets for a sub 4.00 ERA. Then you will have Cole coming up midseason and Karstens should post respectable numbers. Lets give both pitchers a 4.25 ERA for the season which is probably a high estimate. We'll give James McDonald a 4.25 ERA as well which is also high. Now assuming a league average bullpen in order to get to allowing 740 runs Kyle McPherson would need to pitch the entire season and have a 9.00 ERA and that isn't going to happen as he would get pulled out of the rotation long before that.

I would say the 2013 rotation is better than the 2012 rotation. The 2012 rotation consisted of the following

24 starts from Erik Bedard at a 5.01 ERA
9 starts from Charlie Morton at a 4.65 ERA
6 starts from Jeff Locke at a 5.50 ERA

So in total 39 starts in 2012. I doubt you will have 39 poor starts like that in 2013. Bedard is gone, Morton will be healthy and Locke will have more experience. I just don't see where this guy thinks all these extra runs we will allow will come from. I would say the 2013 Pirates would allow less runs than the 2012 Pirates. Injuries can change things obviously but I'm going on the assumption that starters like Burnett and Rodriguez each make 30 starts.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 11:18 AM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


The ZIPS projection is a lot more accurate. I like our pitching better so I would put it in the 84-86 win range personally but it's in the ballpark at least. The other one is completely out to lunch though.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 12:03 PM

Re: Pirates projected to win....... 


Good analysis there katoy.  I'm just about on board with everything you said.  The only thing that concerns me on offense is the possibility that Jones, Alvarez and McCutchen all have a hard time duplicating last year's numbers.  If so, we could really struggle.  Of course, it's possible one of our young guys like Tabata really breaks out and all those guys I mentioned have similar if not better years.  Hard to tell.  I'm still hoping we add somebody significant.
"I originally said he would get fired in mid-May after a poor start, but honestly, he might not make it to May at this rate." A 'professional' opinion of Manager of the Year Clint Hurdle 4/8/13
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Posted: 01/19/2013 12:29 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


Yes there will likely be some regression with at least one or two of those players. Particularly McCutchen but that is because his year was so good.

I think Jones will probably hit for a little less power but remember his walks were abnormally low last year. I would say both even out so instead of the 2012 he had where he went .274/.317/.516 you get something along the lines of .275/.340/.495

Alvarez I think will be better in 2013. He was .244/.317/.467 last year and this year I think he will be more like .265/.340/.525 so a significant increase.

We'll differ on this I know but I expect Barmes to improve as well. He was at .229/.272/.321 last year and I think this year will be more like .240/.305/.355.

I have the following lines from the rest of the team

Marte - .285/.340/.450
Tabata - .295/.365/.395
Snider - .275/.335/.480
Walker - .290/.350/.445
Martin - .245/.350/.395
McCutchen - .300/.390/.515
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Posted: 01/19/2013 1:36 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 



If those numbers happen the Pirates will have a very exciting offense.
---------------------------------------------
--- katoy2j wrote:

Yes there will likely be some regression with at least one or two of those players. Particularly McCutchen but that is because his year was so good.

I think Jones will probably hit for a little less power but remember his walks were abnormally low last year. I would say both even out so instead of the 2012 he had where he went .274/.317/.516 you get something along the lines of .275/.340/.495

Alvarez I think will be better in 2013. He was .244/.317/.467 last year and this year I think he will be more like .265/.340/.525 so a significant increase.

We'll differ on this I know but I expect Barmes to improve as well. He was at .229/.272/.321 last year and I think this year will be more like .240/.305/.355.

I have the following lines from the rest of the team

Marte - .285/.340/.450
Tabata - .295/.365/.395
Snider - .275/.335/.480
Walker - .290/.350/.445
Martin - .245/.350/.395
McCutchen - .300/.390/.515

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 01/19/2013 2:22 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


Made a mistake on Snider.

.275/.335/.450 is what I have him for.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 3:30 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 



katoy2j wrote: Well the one that projects the 73-89 season is based off runs scored and runs allowed to determine a record.

It has the Pirates scoring 677 runs which is a pretty fair estimate as I think the offense will be better in 2013 than it was in 2012. A full year of Marte, adding Martin, Sanchez as a platoon, etc. That represents 26 more runs than the 651 the Pirates scored in 2012. I think they will get a little more than that but it sounds like a good number.

Where this projection falls off a cliff is the runs allowed. It projects that the team will allow 740 runs in 2013. The Pirates allowed 674 runs in 2012. That is a massive 66 run difference. That is .41 runs a game more than last year and I just don't see that happening. For one you get an entire year of Wandy Rodriguez. I assume both Burnett and Rodriguez are safe bets for a sub 4.00 ERA. Then you will have Cole coming up midseason and Karstens should post respectable numbers. Lets give both pitchers a 4.25 ERA for the season which is probably a high estimate. We'll give James McDonald a 4.25 ERA as well which is also high. Now assuming a league average bullpen in order to get to allowing 740 runs Kyle McPherson would need to pitch the entire season and have a 9.00 ERA and that isn't going to happen as he would get pulled out of the rotation long before that.

I would say the 2013 rotation is better than the 2012 rotation. The 2012 rotation consisted of the following

24 starts from Erik Bedard at a 5.01 ERA
9 starts from Charlie Morton at a 4.65 ERA
6 starts from Jeff Locke at a 5.50 ERA

So in total 39 starts in 2012. I doubt you will have 39 poor starts like that in 2013. Bedard is gone, Morton will be healthy and Locke will have more experience. I just don't see where this guy thinks all these extra runs we will allow will come from. I would say the 2013 Pirates would allow less runs than the 2012 Pirates. Injuries can change things obviously but I'm going on the assumption that starters like Burnett and Rodriguez each make 30 starts.
As it is right now I would say the staring pitching is about the same. The bullpen however is worse than last year. And our bullpen was a huge part of the success that the Pirates had last year. I think offensively the Pirates will not be any better then they were last year. I think Martin will be a improvement over Baraja, but if he bats .220 again how much of an impact will that be. I do see Marte having more of an impact but I do believe Jones will come back a bit and im worried about the health of Walker.

So two if the 3 prediction I loaded up had the Pirates right about 73 wins and I think that is pretty much right on the money.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 5:49 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


Wow where do I start?

So we subtracted a horrible Bedard, an injured Morton and Kevin Correia and instead replaced them with a full year of Wandy Rodriguez and Kyle McPherson and you think the pitching is the same?

Bedard and Morton basically combined for an entire seasons worth of starts. So roughly the Bedard/Morton combination is worth a combined ERA of about 4.90. Do you honestly see McPherson being worse than that for 33 starts? I doubt he will but if he is for even 10 starts he's going to get replaced pretty quick.

Do you think Wandy Rodriguez is going to be the same pitching wise as Kevin Correia? Correia had a 4.21 ERA and I would say Rodriguez will have an ERA about a half run lower.

I would say the pitching is significantly improved today as opposed to last season even if we don't add another starter which I think we will anyway be it Liriano, Marcum or Saunders. One of those guys will just make it that much better.

Lets not also forget the impact that Russel Martin will have. He's been one of the best at pitch framing and there is all kind of research out there about that for those that want to research it. It's hard to imagine that having anything but a positive impact on the pitching staff.

As for the bullpen I see it as a pretty small downgrade if any. The only key guy we lost was Hanrahan and his spot was taken by Melancon who was very effective after coming back up from the minors. I would say the rest of the bullpen is pretty strong when you consider Morris will likely be an improvement over Resop. They will probably bring in another guy here as well like they always do. If Neil Huntington gets a passing grade anywhere it's his ability to put together strong bullpens to start a season. He seems to do it every year. Complain about anything else you want but building a bullpen out of spring training hasn't been an issue yet. This will be the 4th different closer now since Huntington got here so he did pretty well in evaluating closers. I think it's premature to call the bullpen worse.

You also think the offense is better so no point getting into that. I just don't see how this team is worse. They've upgraded multiple positions including catcher and the bench. Yet you think we will be worse by 6 games this year because we lost Hanrahan? If that is the case then Hanrahan should get a 35 million dollar contract because he would be the most valuable player in baseball.

The big losses for the Pirates have been Hanraahan which is a pretty easy position to replace as small market teams have been replacing closers forever and seem to get by just fine. Oakland got rid of their "proven all-star closer" and did all right. In fact he just lost his job to Hanrahan.

The only way I can really see the Pirates falling back to 73 wins is if they get a rash of injuries. They have a pretty decent amount of depth right now but if McCutchen, Burnett, Alvarez and Rodriguez all get hurt then yeah the team is going to be in rough shape. If that happens you can't do anything but throw your hands up in the air and say it wasn't meant to be. Other than that though I think this team if it stays relatively healthy is a pretty good lock to end the losing streak.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 6:01 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 



katoy2j wrote: Wow where do I start?

So we subtracted a horrible Bedard, an injured Morton and Kevin Correia and instead replaced them with a full year of Wandy Rodriguez and Kyle McPherson and you think the pitching is the same?

Bedard and Morton basically combined for an entire seasons worth of starts. So roughly the Bedard/Morton combination is worth a combined ERA of about 4.90. Do you honestly see McPherson being worse than that for 33 starts? I doubt he will but if he is for even 10 starts he's going to get replaced pretty quick.

Do you think Wandy Rodriguez is going to be the same pitching wise as Kevin Correia? Correia had a 4.21 ERA and I would say Rodriguez will have an ERA about a half run lower.

I would say the pitching is significantly improved today as opposed to last season even if we don't add another starter which I think we will anyway be it Liriano, Marcum or Saunders. One of those guys will just make it that much better.

Lets not also forget the impact that Russel Martin will have. He's been one of the best at pitch framing and there is all kind of research out there about that for those that want to research it. It's hard to imagine that having anything but a positive impact on the pitching staff.

As for the bullpen I see it as a pretty small downgrade if any. The only key guy we lost was Hanrahan and his spot was taken by Melancon who was very effective after coming back up from the minors. I would say the rest of the bullpen is pretty strong when you consider Morris will likely be an improvement over Resop. They will probably bring in another guy here as well like they always do. If Neil Huntington gets a passing grade anywhere it's his ability to put together strong bullpens to start a season. He seems to do it every year. Complain about anything else you want but building a bullpen out of spring training hasn't been an issue yet. This will be the 4th different closer now since Huntington got here so he did pretty well in evaluating closers. I think it's premature to call the bullpen worse.

You also think the offense is better so no point getting into that. I just don't see how this team is worse. They've upgraded multiple positions including catcher and the bench. Yet you think we will be worse by 6 games this year because we lost Hanrahan? If that is the case then Hanrahan should get a 35 million dollar contract because he would be the most valuable player in baseball.

The big losses for the Pirates have been Hanraahan which is a pretty easy position to replace as small market teams have been replacing closers forever and seem to get by just fine. Oakland got rid of their "proven all-star closer" and did all right. In fact he just lost his job to Hanrahan.

The only way I can really see the Pirates falling back to 73 wins is if they get a rash of injuries. They have a pretty decent amount of depth right now but if McCutchen, Burnett, Alvarez and Rodriguez all get hurt then yeah the team is going to be in rough shape. If that happens you can't do anything but throw your hands up in the air and say it wasn't meant to be. Other than that though I think this team if it stays relatively healthy is a pretty good lock to end the losing streak.
To start I dont see McP as the 5th starter. I see Oliver. And yes I see him posting a ERA well over 5.00. I see Karstens as the 4 and see his stats regressing. I think McD will pitch as an in between of the two halves he had last year. Burnett is a year older and I feel he will pitch about the same, but I dont see him getting better. As far as Wandy I am not a fan. But I do think he will be about a 4.00 ERAis Pitcher.

As for the Pen there is no way that Melancon will put up the numbers that Grilli had as the set up man. And I will bet anyone anything that Grilli will not be as good as Hanny was last year in the closer role. We have no idea if Wilson will be able to feel Resop's spot.

You are banking on every player having career years or putting up the same numbers they had in their best years. I am basing 73ish wins on history of the game and player averages. Come October we will see who is closer.

And a quick question. Are you related to NH in any way? I dont think you have ever said a bad thing about him or ever disagreed with any move he has ever made. Im just wondering.

Last edited 01/19/2013 6:15 PM by vinnybravo

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Posted: 01/19/2013 7:08 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


You can see Oliver all you want it's not going to happen.

I guess I could come up with the Pirates winning 62 games too if they go with a rotation of Oliver, Locke, Mazzaro, Karstens and McDonald. That rotation isn't going to happen though. You seem to think Oliver will be the 5th starter but then say he will pitch to an ERA over 5.00. Your logic is so flawed beyond belief. Just listen to it as your reading this. Oliver is going to win a rotation spot and pitch over a 5.00 ERA yet Kyle McPherson who pitched to a 2.73 ERA when he had a chance to start in the majors isn't going to crack the rotation. I'm glad the Pirates or anyone really use this logic because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

As for Melancon not being able to put up the numbers that Grilli did... In 2011 Melancon pitched to a 2.78 ERA in Houston. Jason Grilli pitched to a 2.91 ERA last year. You can't tell me there is no way Melancon can't do that because he already has. Will he do it? I have no idea because that's why they play the games but your completely dismissing the possibility of it as it's some kind of crazy thought to expect Melancon to simply repeat what he already has done in his past. Your betting people anything that Grilli won't be better than Hanrahan based on what? They were pretty much the same pitcher except that Hanrahan was a lot luckier. From a peripheral basis Grilli was a lot stronger. All signs point to Grilli having a better season than Hanrahan will in 2013.

Do you know why I'm banking on young players having career years? Because that's what tends to happen with young players. They struggle when they start out and tend to get better over time. Up until they reach their peak which is around age 27. This isn't a huge surprise it's how most players tend to work. They generally get better as they have more experience. I don't think Martin or Barmes will have career years but when you have a core of players in the 24-26 range that is the age range where players tend to break out. I'm not posting any crazy numbers in with any of those guys. I'm basically saying they become average players at their positions especially in the cases of Marte, Snider and Tabata. I'm sure some guys will miss my projections just like I'm sure some guys will out perform my projections. I had McCutchen last year to break out with a projection of .300/.380/.490. Instead he broke out with .327/.400/.553.

I've had plenty of disagreements regarding Huntington. Some I was right and some I was wrong. I did not like trading away Gorzelanny. I did not like trading away Navarro. I didn't like the Correia signing. I didn't like the hiring of Clint Hurdle. I think he can be a little too much of a stickler in terms of value he assigns to players. For example I thought they should of brought Karstens back for 4 million dollars instead of non tendering him. I understand why they did it I just didn't really think they should of went that route. They ended up getting him back for 2.5 million so it looks like a pretty good move.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 8:25 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


McP has 3 starts. He had one good start, one bad and one so so. That does not mean he will be a star. Like I said I am willing to bet Oliver starts the season in the 5 spot.

You crack me up with Melancon. You keep harping back to 2011 like 2012 didn't happen. Yet for a guy like Hanny you only use 2012 and forget about his 2011 season. Melancon did have a good 2011 season and last year he stunk. I believe that he will continue to put up number more like 2012.

As far as young guys yes some get better, some don't. Lets use Tabata for an example. You think he can win multiple batting titles. I think he is a mental midget. In fact I called his 2012 season. I didnt need advance statistics to see that. Snyder is the same way.

Dude, I love the fact you think that the Pirates are going to be such a great team this year and in the future. I really hope they are. But I cant get on your bandwagon. Other than Willingham every player that you have talked up has never performed up to what you made them out to be. As this team is built they are more a 73 win team than a 85 win team.
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Posted: 01/19/2013 10:10 PM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


I'm right on players and I'm wrong on others. Just like everyone who works in the baseball industry. If I could be right all the time I certainly wouldn't be on a message board posting my thoughts.

I've been right on a lot of players. I was following Jurickson Profar before he was highly regarded and in 2010 and 2011 I pretty much thought he was a guy that the Pirates should try and grab. I was high on Oscar Tavares and I've wanted the Pirates to get Chase Headley for years well before he broke out. I'm a hige Adam LaRoche fan when nearly everyone else wanted him lynched. Some guys worked out after they left Pittsburgh. I always liked Bautista and I always liked Brandon Moss. I understand that sometimes the team just needs to move on and I can't really fault them in those instances. I've certainly been wrong on a lot of guys as well. Sometimes it probably has a lot to do with injury with guys like Brad Lincoln and Andy LaRoche. Sometimes the player wasn't used correctly like Lastings Milledge. Sometimes the player just doesn't play well like Brandon Wood. It happens.

I don't think an 84 win team is anything special. It's a few games over .500. As for players not performing we're talking about guys who are primarily 23 and 24 year olds. If you want to write off Jose Tabata that's your prerogative. Most players his age are just coming up to the majors. I still think he will be a very good player. I hope it happens in 2013 and I hope it happens with the Pirates. It may not happen but I think eventually he will be very good. He reminds me of Shis-Soo Choo and Alex Gordon. Those guys were both much older when they became good players so perhaps Tabata will follow the same path.

I think the Pirates will be very good in the future. I'm really high on a lot of the prospects in the system. I've followed the system for years and it gets better and deeper by the year despite the fact it has graduated a lot of talent.

I don't think McPherson will be a star. I think he will be better than what Bedard and Morton did last year. I think Rodriguez will be better than what Correia was last year. Based on the fact that last year the primary rotation was Burnett, McDonald, Bedard, Karstens and Correia and this you replaced Correia and Bedard with Rodriguez and McPherson I consider that an upgrade. I don't see how that can't be seen as an upgrade really. It seems pretty obvious.

2012 did happen for Melancon. He struggled went to the minors and was pretty good after getting called up. He had a few rough outings to start the year. Take out his first two innings pitched and his ERA goes down to 4.18 from 6.20. He was excellent in September with a 0.90 ERA. He fixed a lot of his issues which happens with pitchers all the time. A starting pitcher gets rocked it's no big deal because you have 200 innings to get your numbers back on track. If you're a reliever forget it a bad outing will ruin your year. I believe in Melancon because his peripherals were solid, he's coming back to the NL and I'm not sure if you watched a lot of Boston games but Bobby Valentine pretty much destroyed that bullpen. Andrew Bailey, Aceves, Melancon and Bard all had bad years. What is more likely that suddenly all four of these pitchers contacted suckitis or perhaps they wern't used properly? You're awfully negative if you believe Melancon will be putting up 6.20 ERA's considering his peripherals. It screams fluke considering he had a very solid 2.4 BB/9 and a 8.2 K/9 which were better than what he posted in 2011. His only issue was allowing homeruns where he allowed 1.6 HR/9. Considering he is a ground ball pitcher I like his chances for a rebound.
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Posted: 01/20/2013 6:02 AM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 


To answer your question, he agrees with NH about 99.9% of the time, and the .01 percent is very mild.

Nothing wrong with that, but it has been the case since day one.

---------------------------------------------
--- vinnybravo wrote:


And a quick question. Are you related to NH in any way? I dont think you have ever said a bad thing about him or ever disagreed with any move he has ever made. Im just wondering.

---------------------------------------------

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/20/2013 6:10 AM

Re: Pirates projected to win....... 


Kind of off topic, but have you guys ever wondered if a GM in any sport has ever actively participated in a message board just for fresh ideas?  Haha!  How funny would it be if one of our posters was NH?!
"I originally said he would get fired in mid-May after a poor start, but honestly, he might not make it to May at this rate." A 'professional' opinion of Manager of the Year Clint Hurdle 4/8/13
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Posted: 01/20/2013 7:02 AM

RE: Pirates projected to win....... 



katoy2j wrote: I'm right on players and I'm wrong on others. Just like everyone who works in the baseball industry. If I could be right all the time I certainly wouldn't be on a message board posting my thoughts.

I've been right on a lot of players. I was following Jurickson Profar before he was highly regarded and in 2010 and 2011 I pretty much thought he was a guy that the Pirates should try and grab. I was high on Oscar Tavares and I've wanted the Pirates to get Chase Headley for years well before he broke out. I'm a hige Adam LaRoche fan when nearly everyone else wanted him lynched. Some guys worked out after they left Pittsburgh. I always liked Bautista and I always liked Brandon Moss. I understand that sometimes the team just needs to move on and I can't really fault them in those instances. I've certainly been wrong on a lot of guys as well. Sometimes it probably has a lot to do with injury with guys like Brad Lincoln and Andy LaRoche. Sometimes the player wasn't used correctly like Lastings Milledge. Sometimes the player just doesn't play well like Brandon Wood. It happens.

I don't think an 84 win team is anything special. It's a few games over .500. As for players not performing we're talking about guys who are primarily 23 and 24 year olds. If you want to write off Jose Tabata that's your prerogative. Most players his age are just coming up to the majors. I still think he will be a very good player. I hope it happens in 2013 and I hope it happens with the Pirates. It may not happen but I think eventually he will be very good. He reminds me of Shis-Soo Choo and Alex Gordon. Those guys were both much older when they became good players so perhaps Tabata will follow the same path.

I think the Pirates will be very good in the future. I'm really high on a lot of the prospects in the system. I've followed the system for years and it gets better and deeper by the year despite the fact it has graduated a lot of talent.

I don't think McPherson will be a star. I think he will be better than what Bedard and Morton did last year. I think Rodriguez will be better than what Correia was last year. Based on the fact that last year the primary rotation was Burnett, McDonald, Bedard, Karstens and Correia and this you replaced Correia and Bedard with Rodriguez and McPherson I consider that an upgrade. I don't see how that can't be seen as an upgrade really. It seems pretty obvious.

2012 did happen for Melancon. He struggled went to the minors and was pretty good after getting called up. He had a few rough outings to start the year. Take out his first two innings pitched and his ERA goes down to 4.18 from 6.20. He was excellent in September with a 0.90 ERA. He fixed a lot of his issues which happens with pitchers all the time. A starting pitcher gets rocked it's no big deal because you have 200 innings to get your numbers back on track. If you're a reliever forget it a bad outing will ruin your year. I believe in Melancon because his peripherals were solid, he's coming back to the NL and I'm not sure if you watched a lot of Boston games but Bobby Valentine pretty much destroyed that bullpen. Andrew Bailey, Aceves, Melancon and Bard all had bad years. What is more likely that suddenly all four of these pitchers contacted suckitis or perhaps they wern't used properly? You're awfully negative if you believe Melancon will be putting up 6.20 ERA's considering his peripherals. It screams fluke considering he had a very solid 2.4 BB/9 and a 8.2 K/9 which were better than what he posted in 2011. His only issue was allowing homeruns where he allowed 1.6 HR/9. Considering he is a ground ball pitcher I like his chances for a rebound.
If you take away the horrid first month for Melancon he still had an ERA of 4.37 and hitters hit over .250 against him. That is not horrible, but not the numbers you want for a set up man.
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Posted: 01/20/2013 7:09 AM

Re: Pirates projected to win....... 



GhostOfPBG wrote: Kind of off topic, but have you guys ever wondered if a GM in any sport has ever actively participated in a message board just for fresh ideas?  Haha!  How funny would it be if one of our posters was NH?!
Well if NH is coming on here and listening to me that may explain 20 years of losing!!
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