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Top 30 Prospects: #16-30

Posted: 01/09/2013 7:56 PM

Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


*No longer with organization.

Click on each player's name for a player profile. Enjoy!

16 - Dilson Herrera
17 - Brock Holt*
18 - Max Moroff
19 - Justin Wilson
20 - Matt Curry
21 - Victor Black
22 - Willy Garcia
23 - Zack Von Rosenberg
24 - Zack Dodson
25 - Bryan Morris
26 - Elvis Escobar
27 - Harold Ramirez
28 - Jin-De Jhang
29 - Adalberto Santos
30 - Jarek Cunningham


Last edited 01/10/2013 2:44 PM by CutchTruth

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Posted: 01/09/2013 8:53 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


I really like Herrera and think he is going to break out this year. Would not be surprised to see him as a top 100 prospect a year from now.
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Posted: 01/09/2013 9:46 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


#18 and rising with a bullet: shortstop Max Moroff.  I really like this kid.
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Posted: 01/09/2013 9:58 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


I really never understood those that say the Pirates system isn't deep. That list is going to have likely three players make the majors this season. It also has some pretty interesting names in Herrera, Garcia and Jhang.

This is also coming off a year in which Marte, Locke, Hughes, Mercer and D'Arnaud lost their prospect status. When you can pump out players with as high an upside as Morris, Wilson, Black and Herrera in the bottom half of your top 30 I would say that is a pretty deep system
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Posted: 01/10/2013 5:42 AM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



katoy2j wrote: I really never understood those that say the Pirates system isn't deep. That list is going to have likely three players make the majors this season. It also has some pretty interesting names in Herrera, Garcia and Jhang.

This is also coming off a year in which Marte, Locke, Hughes, Mercer and D'Arnaud lost their prospect status. When you can pump out players with as high an upside as Morris, Wilson, Black and Herrera in the bottom half of your top 30 I would say that is a pretty deep system
I think some say the system is not deep because the players that make the ML make it out of need not because they were great players or earned their way up. I also think they feel that one or two make the ML team, but they dont ever do anything when they reach the ML level.

I like the talent in our system. I think it has been the best in a long time.
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Posted: 01/10/2013 5:49 AM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


ZVR lives!
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Posted: 01/10/2013 8:23 AM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


ZVR is only 22. Unfortunately he never got the increase in velocity the team had hoped for when they drafted him. While his performance in West Virginia was much better than the year before, his peripherals went into the toilet which is a bad sign. 2013 will be a huge year for him. They are pretty much forced to move him up to high A which is the toughest jump. If he does well then a major league career is possible in some capacity. If he struggles he could pretty much become a nonentity. Sadly I don't really like his chances.
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Posted: 01/10/2013 2:46 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


Big fan of Moroff too. Love the plate discipline and ability to stick at short longterm.
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Posted: 01/10/2013 2:53 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



vinnybravo wrote:
katoy2j wrote: I really never understood those that say the Pirates system isn't deep. That list is going to have likely three players make the majors this season. It also has some pretty interesting names in Herrera, Garcia and Jhang.

This is also coming off a year in which Marte, Locke, Hughes, Mercer and D'Arnaud lost their prospect status. When you can pump out players with as high an upside as Morris, Wilson, Black and Herrera in the bottom half of your top 30 I would say that is a pretty deep system
I think some say the system is not deep because the players that make the ML make it out of need not because they were great players or earned their way up. I also think they feel that one or two make the ML team, but they dont ever do anything when they reach the ML level.

I like the talent in our system. I think it has been the best in a long time.
To me it is weird that people knock the depth.  I guess I kinda see the point considering the system is fairly thin in AA and AAA, but the lower minor talent is incredible.  I mean, outside my personal top 9 prospects, which are the more elite guys (and everyone one of them will start next year at A+ Bradenton save for Heredia mind you), you have a plethora of very interesting guys.

Glasnow, Herrera, Moroff, Mathisen, De-Jhang, Holmes, Osuna, Dickerson, Garcia, Ramirez, Escobar, Burnette, Creasy, Brewer, Sandfort, Sampson, Ross, etc.  I think there is a lot to like and a lot of potential outside the elite prospects in the system.  It strikes me as fairly deep.
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Posted: 01/10/2013 3:34 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



katoy2j wrote: ZVR is only 22. Unfortunately he never got the increase in velocity the team had hoped for when they drafted him. While his performance in West Virginia was much better than the year before, his peripherals went into the toilet which is a bad sign. 2013 will be a huge year for him. They are pretty much forced to move him up to high A which is the toughest jump. If he does well then a major league career is possible in some capacity. If he struggles he could pretty much become a nonentity. Sadly I don't really like his chances.
A $1.2 million guess gone wrong.
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Posted: 01/10/2013 6:11 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


You'll have those.  Looks like the 1.2 million dollar guess on Clay Holmes might pay off better.
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Posted: 01/11/2013 7:21 AM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



CutchTruth wrote:
vinnybravo wrote:
katoy2j wrote: I really never understood those that say the Pirates system isn't deep. That list is going to have likely three players make the majors this season. It also has some pretty interesting names in Herrera, Garcia and Jhang.

This is also coming off a year in which Marte, Locke, Hughes, Mercer and D'Arnaud lost their prospect status. When you can pump out players with as high an upside as Morris, Wilson, Black and Herrera in the bottom half of your top 30 I would say that is a pretty deep system
I think some say the system is not deep because the players that make the ML make it out of need not because they were great players or earned their way up. I also think they feel that one or two make the ML team, but they dont ever do anything when they reach the ML level.

I like the talent in our system. I think it has been the best in a long time.
To me it is weird that people knock the depth.  I guess I kinda see the point considering the system is fairly thin in AA and AAA, but the lower minor talent is incredible.  I mean, outside my personal top 9 prospects, which are the more elite guys (and everyone one of them will start next year at A+ Bradenton save for Heredia mind you), you have a plethora of very interesting guys.

Glasnow, Herrera, Moroff, Mathisen, De-Jhang, Holmes, Osuna, Dickerson, Garcia, Ramirez, Escobar, Burnette, Creasy, Brewer, Sandfort, Sampson, Ross, etc.  I think there is a lot to like and a lot of potential outside the elite prospects in the system.  It strikes me as fairly deep.


I'm not sure why you would call it "weird", since the few commentators who have said the system  is thin (outside of the first round picks)have explained the reason for the comment -- given that the Pirates have spend more money than anyone else on the draft for several years, one would expected to see more top prospects in their system than in anyone else's.  In other words, the Pirates spend more money to bring in more top prospects, but their system isn't significantly deeper.

I have no idea if this is true or not, in part because we don't know how "deep" the system really is.  We won't know that until we see the results on the major league field in coming years.  Without a crystal ball, one can only hope.

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/11/2013 7:50 AM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



CutchTruth wrote: You'll have those.  Looks like the 1.2 million dollar guess on Clay Holmes might pay off better.
Agreed - I think we will hear the name Clay Holmes alot going forward.
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Posted: 01/11/2013 12:03 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



gr1111 wrote:

I'm not sure why you would call it "weird", since the few commentators who have said the system  is thin (outside of the first round picks)have explained the reason for the comment -- given that the Pirates have spend more money than anyone else on the draft for several years, one would expected to see more top prospects in their system than in anyone else's.  In other words, the Pirates spend more money to bring in more top prospects, but their system isn't significantly deeper.

I have no idea if this is true or not, in part because we don't know how "deep" the system really is.  We won't know that until we see the results on the major league field in coming years.  Without a crystal ball, one can only hope.
It's sort of a not really the case that spending the most should yield a deeper farm system.  The Pirates paid over half of their draft budget to four first round picks and Josh Bell.  When you draft high those guys will cost a lot.  The Red Sox on the other hand have spent peanuts on their first round picks but are right up there in spending with the Pirates.  The Pirates have spent much less in later rounds than teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.  The fact that they've spent a lot is simple because they're generally taking the best player available which costs a lot since it's usually a Boras representative as opposed to the years when they took third starters with the first pick overall because they would sign cheap.
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Posted: 01/11/2013 1:47 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



CutchTruth wrote:
vinnybravo wrote:
katoy2j wrote: I really never understood those that say the Pirates system isn't deep. That list is going to have likely three players make the majors this season. It also has some pretty interesting names in Herrera, Garcia and Jhang.

This is also coming off a year in which Marte, Locke, Hughes, Mercer and D'Arnaud lost their prospect status. When you can pump out players with as high an upside as Morris, Wilson, Black and Herrera in the bottom half of your top 30 I would say that is a pretty deep system
I think some say the system is not deep because the players that make the ML make it out of need not because they were great players or earned their way up. I also think they feel that one or two make the ML team, but they dont ever do anything when they reach the ML level.

I like the talent in our system. I think it has been the best in a long time.
To me it is weird that people knock the depth.  I guess I kinda see the point considering the system is fairly thin in AA and AAA, but the lower minor talent is incredible.  I mean, outside my personal top 9 prospects, which are the more elite guys (and everyone one of them will start next year at A+ Bradenton save for Heredia mind you), you have a plethora of very interesting guys.

Glasnow, Herrera, Moroff, Mathisen, De-Jhang, Holmes, Osuna, Dickerson, Garcia, Ramirez, Escobar, Burnette, Creasy, Brewer, Sandfort, Sampson, Ross, etc.  I think there is a lot to like and a lot of potential outside the elite prospects in the system.  It strikes me as fairly deep.
This right here is the key point for me.  If the ML team has issues with players getting hurt or not producing... or maybe someone is just being a distraction, there's very little quality help at the teams finger tips right now.  I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that 99% of Pirates fans aren't going to AAA, AA, or A games to see great quality baseball... granted, there hasn't been much of that in Pittsburgh in the last 20 years, but that's not really the point.  Of the 15+ guys you've mentioned at the end, we're about 2 to 3 years (maybe even more), from seeing any of those guys at any capacity.

In the grand scheme of things, I don't even count Single-A players as depth at all... as far as the Pirates are concerned.  Reason being, the Pirates very rarely have shown the perpensity to trade away young/cheap prospects for old/expensive talent.  While it's understandable to an extent, but to put you over the hump, sometimes you need to make more than just one of these deals every 15 to 20 years.  Without looking it up, I'm thinking that in the last 20 years, Wandy is the only player in which the Pirates traded away prospects for, what I call, expected production... and the only reason they did that was because the Astros were willing to pay a portion of his contract.  If the Astros weren't willing to budge on that aspect of the trade, I am 100% certain that Wandy would not be in Pittsburgh right now.

As far as the AA and AAA ranks go, outside of Cole, there isn't anyone on the cusp of being brought up that could actually make an impact.  Tabata is here.  Marte is here.  There's no one left.  Sands?  Maybe, but he's still an unknown... like just about everyone else.  To me, there's very little expected production in AAA.  I don't need a guy to come up and hit .325 or hit a HR every 18 AB's or pitch 7 shutout inning or anything like that, but how about hitting .275.  How about hitting an HR every 25 AB's.  How about being able to start and go 6 innings and give up 2 runs.  To me, even my acceptable numbers are 'wishful thinking' based on the mediocre talent available to be brought up right now.
#fringeprospect
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Posted: 01/11/2013 2:02 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


Hitting a home run every 25 at bats equates to about 24 homers over a full season. I don't know very many organizations that have that kind of talent sitting in AAA as an insurance policy. Why couldn't Sands or Tabata do that though? They have that pedigree. Lets also not forget that we also had three players from the minors who have done that since Hintington got here in Alvarez, McCutchen and Jones.
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Posted: 01/11/2013 2:29 PM

Re: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


Maybe I misunderstand your point, but are you saying that Jose Tabata has the pedigree to hit 24 HR in a season?

His career high, in both the minors and majors, is 5 (twice, in rookie and low A ball).

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/11/2013 3:19 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



katoy2j wrote: Hitting a home run every 25 at bats equates to about 24 homers over a full season. I don't know very many organizations that have that kind of talent sitting in AAA as an insurance policy. Why couldn't Sands or Tabata do that though? They have that pedigree. Lets also not forget that we also had three players from the minors who have done that since Hintington got here in Alvarez, McCutchen and Jones.


It's not a matter of players who are "sitting in AAA as an insurance policy".  It's players who are more or less finished products who can reasonably be counted on for at least replacement level production right out of the chute.  Not star level production.  Just replacement level.  A minor league system that can regularly produce even a handful of guys like that in most years is a successful minor league system. 

 

 

The Pirates, at present, do NOT have a system like that.  What they have is, a farm system that has a handful of players who have the potential to become stars---everybody realizes that---but what they do NOT have is a steady supply of "regular Joes" or "solid glue guys" or "replacement level players".  In other words, they don't have EVERYBODY ELSE. 


If I had to choose one or the other, I'd take the latter.  Give me a farm system that is sending a steady stream or even just a steady trickle of solid-average-replacement-level big leaguers to Pittsburgh, and we can acquire enough talent via other means to get over the top.  That's how the Twins did it, basically. 

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Posted: 01/11/2013 3:23 PM

Re: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 



gr1111 wrote: Maybe I misunderstand your point, but are you saying that Jose Tabata has the pedigree to hit 24 HR in a season?

His career high, in both the minors and majors, is 5 (twice, in rookie and low A ball).
No Tabata, Katoy said Tabata has the pedigree to win multiple batting championships. Sand I think is the guy he feels can hit 24 HR's.
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Posted: 01/11/2013 7:21 PM

RE: Top 30 Prospects: #16-30 


sorry my error. I meant to say Snider not Tabata
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