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2013 Pirates are the team of "if's"

Posted: 01/02/2013 7:54 PM

2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


It seems like when you talk about the 2013 Pirates it is a bunch of "if's".

If Sands can hit ML pitching.
If Tabata/Snyder play to their potential
IF Alverez can improve his hitting.
If Liriano can return to his old form.
If McPhearson/Lock can fill in at the #5 starter.
If McDonald pitches like the first half of last year.
If McCutchen can repeat his number from last season.
If Jones can repeat his 2012 season.
If Grilli can fill in for Hanrahan.
If Melancon can return to 2011 form.
If Barmes can just hit a little better.

IF, IF, IF. I know that small market teams have to take chances, but it just seems like there are a lot of if's right now with this team.

And I know all teams have some if's, but it just seems like the Pirates have more than most.
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Posted: 01/03/2013 12:56 AM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


Every team is about "if's"

What if the 2012 Nationals let Strasburg pitch in the playoffs?
What if the 2012 Reds didn't choke against the Giants in the playoffs?


It's got nothing to do with being a small market team. The Blue Jays are the favourites to win the World Series according to Vegas. They have loads of ifs

If Jose Reyes hamstrings are able to survive playing on astro turf
If Ricky Romero returns to the pitcher he was before 2012
If Jose Bautista can recover from his injury
If Edwin Encarnacion can show his 2012 wasn't a fluke
If Brett Lawrie can live up to the hype
If Josh Johnson stays healthy
If Sergio Santos can regain his closer role
If R.A. Dickey can carry his success to the American League
If Melky Cabrera can be a productive player after getting busted for performance enhancing drugs
If Adam Lind can hit again
If Brandon Morrow can be consistent
If Colby Rasmus can just hit a little better

Every teams about ifs and the ones that do well usually get lucky with the ifs. The Giants played 6 elimination games to get to the World Series. If they lost a single one of them then someone else would of won the World Series.

If Josh Hamilton stays sober
If Albert Pujols can stay out of decline
If the Dodgers run out of money for free agents
If the Yankees really plan to go with those catchers

Teams that do well usually get a lot of luck with their ifs. There are no perfect teams in baseball and the Pirates like every other team have flaws

-The Pirates don't need Sands in the majors for 2013
-They need one of Snider or Tabata to play to their potential
-They would live with Alvarez having the same numbers from 2012
-They need Liriano to pitch a lot of innings and be an improvement over Kevin Correia
-If McPherson or Locke don't fill the fifth starter spot then they have other options
-They would be thrilled if McDonald posted a sub 4.00 ERA. They don't expect McDonald to be a CY Young candidate
-They need McCutchen to be the teams best player
-They need Jones to walk a little more which will make a decrease in power a wash
-They need Grilli to be what he was last year
-They need Melancon to pitch to his peripherals and the rest should fall into place.
-They need Barmes to continue to play great defense and what he gives you with the bat will be gravy

The Pirates don't have any more problems than 90% of other teams. If things work out they will do well. If they don't they will do poorly. Just like all the other teams.

The Pirates have a lot of things going for them. They're a fairly young team which limits possible declines. They have really good bench depth. They've always seemed to have strong bullpens. They have good depth at AAA. Compared to other teams they were very healthy last year and were among the best teams regarding man games lost. Nobody not even Andrew McCutchen performed so well in 2012 that it's impossible to not improve in 2013.

If every if happens they will make the playoffs
If they get some reasonable luck with the ifs they will win 83-86 games
If they have rotten luck with the ifs they will win 75-80 games
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Posted: 01/03/2013 2:04 AM

Re: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 



vinnybravo wrote: It seems like when you talk about the 2013 Pirates it is a bunch of "if's".

If Sands can hit ML pitching.
If Tabata/Snyder play to their potential
IF Alverez can improve his hitting.
If Liriano can return to his old form.
If McPhearson/Lock can fill in at the #5 starter.
If McDonald pitches like the first half of last year.
If McCutchen can repeat his number from last season.
If Jones can repeat his 2012 season.
If Grilli can fill in for Hanrahan.
If Melancon can return to 2011 form.
If Barmes can just hit a little better.

IF, IF, IF. I know that small market teams have to take chances, but it just seems like there are a lot of if's right now with this team.

And I know all teams have some if's, but it just seems like the Pirates have more than most.


I agree with all of this, and could probably add more of them.

But as you say, small market teams have to settle for more "ifs", since they are less able to pay for established talent.

We'll have to wait and see, and hope for the best.  Bring on the pitchers and catchers!

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/03/2013 5:27 AM

Re: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


If Andy LaRoche hits .285
If Brandon Moss hits 20 home runs
If we can unload Jose Bautista before he goes to arbitration...
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Posted: 01/03/2013 9:28 AM

Re: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


If Van Slyke didn't break his collar bone and Bond's had a little McCutchen in him.
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Posted: 01/03/2013 11:55 AM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 



katoy2j wrote: Every team is about "if's"

What if the 2012 Nationals let Strasburg pitch in the playoffs?
What if the 2012 Reds didn't choke against the Giants in the playoffs?


It's got nothing to do with being a small market team. The Blue Jays are the favourites to win the World Series according to Vegas. They have loads of ifs

If Jose Reyes hamstrings are able to survive playing on astro turf
If Ricky Romero returns to the pitcher he was before 2012
If Jose Bautista can recover from his injury
If Edwin Encarnacion can show his 2012 wasn't a fluke
If Brett Lawrie can live up to the hype
If Josh Johnson stays healthy
If Sergio Santos can regain his closer role
If R.A. Dickey can carry his success to the American League
If Melky Cabrera can be a productive player after getting busted for performance enhancing drugs
If Adam Lind can hit again
If Brandon Morrow can be consistent
If Colby Rasmus can just hit a little better

Every teams about ifs and the ones that do well usually get lucky with the ifs. The Giants played 6 elimination games to get to the World Series. If they lost a single one of them then someone else would of won the World Series.

If Josh Hamilton stays sober
If Albert Pujols can stay out of decline
If the Dodgers run out of money for free agents
If the Yankees really plan to go with those catchers

Teams that do well usually get a lot of luck with their ifs. There are no perfect teams in baseball and the Pirates like every other team have flaws

-The Pirates don't need Sands in the majors for 2013
-They need one of Snider or Tabata to play to their potential
-They would live with Alvarez having the same numbers from 2012
-They need Liriano to pitch a lot of innings and be an improvement over Kevin Correia
-If McPherson or Locke don't fill the fifth starter spot then they have other options
-They would be thrilled if McDonald posted a sub 4.00 ERA. They don't expect McDonald to be a CY Young candidate
-They need McCutchen to be the teams best player
-They need Jones to walk a little more which will make a decrease in power a wash
-They need Grilli to be what he was last year
-They need Melancon to pitch to his peripherals and the rest should fall into place.
-They need Barmes to continue to play great defense and what he gives you with the bat will be gravy

The Pirates don't have any more problems than 90% of other teams. If things work out they will do well. If they don't they will do poorly. Just like all the other teams.

The Pirates have a lot of things going for them. They're a fairly young team which limits possible declines. They have really good bench depth. They've always seemed to have strong bullpens. They have good depth at AAA. Compared to other teams they were very healthy last year and were among the best teams regarding man games lost. Nobody not even Andrew McCutchen performed so well in 2012 that it's impossible to not improve in 2013.

If every if happens they will make the playoffs
If they get some reasonable luck with the ifs they will win 83-86 games
If they have rotten luck with the ifs they will win 75-80 games
Toronto is a good example as well. I dont think they are a playoff team either. I think they should finish around .500.

With the Pirate's the IF's all involve players playing better than they did last year or ever in their career.

I mean you harp on Hanrahan and say closers are sketchy, so why is that different for Grilli or Melancon? I mean Grilli and Melancon have the same chance of imploding as Hammer does. So why is Hanrahan the bad choice? Money?

I know you love Snyder and Tabata, but way more things point to them both failing then succeeding. Same thing goes for Liriano.

I just think that the Pirates have too many IF's and not enough proven commodities.
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Posted: 01/03/2013 12:29 PM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


Well right now Toronto is considered the favourite to win the World Series right now so most of the baseball world and people who make their careers making betting odds strongly disagree with you
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Posted: 01/03/2013 1:26 PM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 



katoy2j wrote: Well right now Toronto is considered the favourite to win the World Series right now so most of the baseball world and people who make their careers making betting odds strongly disagree with you
Toronto looks really good to me.
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Posted: 01/03/2013 7:16 PM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 



katoy2j wrote: Well right now Toronto is considered the favourite to win the World Series right now so most of the baseball world and people who make their careers making betting odds strongly disagree with you
Depends on where you look. I have seen them at 12-1, 15-2. I have seen people pick them to finish 3rd in their division. Who was picked to win the WS last year? Did they make the playoffs? And I do believe that last year that everyone was on the Marlin bandwagon. How did that work out? Guess what they had similar odds as the Blue Jays have right now.

So the same people that thought that the Phillies were gonna win last year think the Blue Jays will win this year. Yeah Ill still go with them winning no more than 84-84 games.
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Posted: 01/03/2013 8:48 PM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


I'm taking the Nationals. Bryce Harper could bust out and an unrestricted Strasburg plus an almost perfect top-to-bottom roster...on paper, IMO.

Last edited 01/03/2013 8:48 PM by BAMSTEELERFAN

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Posted: 01/04/2013 6:33 AM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


The Pirates went 12-5 against the Astros last year.  They only get to play them three times in 2013.  The Pirates will have to improve by 7-8 games just to have the same record they had last year.
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Posted: 01/04/2013 6:55 AM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 



Sangue wrote: The Pirates went 12-5 against the Astros last year.  They only get to play them three times in 2013.  The Pirates will have to improve by 7-8 games just to have the same record they had last year.


This is a very important point, and one I made in an article over on The Green Weenie a couple months ago.  The Pirates managed just 79 wins in a season in which not one, but TWO other teams in the NL Central lost 100 or more games.  Think about that for a minute.  With the Disastros going to the AL West (where surely the Mercy Rule ought to be brought out on their behalf), and with the Cubs rebuilding program getting in high gear, the Pirates are going to have tougher sledding going forward.
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Posted: 01/04/2013 7:07 AM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 



williamjpellas wrote:
Sangue wrote: The Pirates went 12-5 against the Astros last year.  They only get to play them three times in 2013.  The Pirates will have to improve by 7-8 games just to have the same record they had last year.


This is a very important point, and one I made in an article over on The Green Weenie a couple months ago.  The Pirates managed just 79 wins in a season in which not one, but TWO other teams in the NL Central lost 100 or more games.  Think about that for a minute.  With the Disastros going to the AL West (where surely the Mercy Rule ought to be brought out on their behalf), and with the Cubs rebuilding program getting in high gear, the Pirates are going to have tougher sledding going forward.


Stop the excuses, you two.  We've been assured a winning season next year, and if it does happen it will be Clint Hurdle's fault.  biggrin

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/04/2013 11:08 AM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


Yeah but everyone else in the division beat up on the Astros as well. It's not like only the Pirates benefited from the Astros the whole division did. Now we will simply play more games against the rest of the division.
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Posted: 01/04/2013 11:11 AM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


Yeah, I heard the "Astros moving hurts the Pirates thing" somewhere else. It doesn't make any sense to me. You can either win baseball games, or you can't. Everybody plays a similar schedule against the same competition.
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Posted: 01/04/2013 11:17 AM

Re: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


It is easier to win games against bad teams than good ones.

And we'll have fewer games against bad teams than we did last year.

Therefore, winning 79 games this year will be more difficult than it was last year.

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/04/2013 12:01 PM

Re: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 



gr1111 wrote: It is easier to win games against bad teams than good ones.

And we'll have fewer games against bad teams than we did last year.

Therefore, winning 79 games this year will be more difficult than it was last year.
Right, but it's the same for everyone.  We were not the only team that beat up on the Astros.  I'm more concerned about the state of the Pirates.  If they are not an 80-90 win team, than they aren't; if they are, they are, some one else will be bad, or have injuries.  It will all shake out, (hopefully it's not us).  Whether we have someone to bully is not something I'm going to waste time thinking about.  JMO

And, if we have to worry about that, we aren't contenders anyway.  Which, we probably aren't, but I just don't see the sense, or the point.
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Posted: 01/04/2013 12:10 PM

Re: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 



BAMSTEELERFAN wrote:
gr1111 wrote: It is easier to win games against bad teams than good ones.

And we'll have fewer games against bad teams than we did last year.

Therefore, winning 79 games this year will be more difficult than it was last year.
Right, but it's the same for everyone.  We were not the only team that beat up on the Astros.  I'm more concerned about the state of the Pirates.  If they are not an 80-90 win team, than they aren't; if they are, they are, some one else will be bad, or have injuries.  It will all shake out, (hopefully it's not us).  Whether we have someone to bully is not something I'm going to waste time thinking about.  JMO

And, if we have to worry about that, we aren't contenders anyway.  Which, we probably aren't, but I just don't see the sense, or the point.


I think the thought was more just that it will be more difficult to win as many as 79 games this year, since we got some "free" ones last year.  It doesn't mean it can't be done (or improved upon), just that it will be more difficult than before.  I don't think there was any suggestion that it will make us any more (or less) competitive against other division foes.

Back to the issue of "ifs", there is an article on bucsdugout.com about the inordinately high number of "high-beta" players onthe Pirates roster, with that term defined as someone who could be surprisingly good, or do next to nothing.  Seems to fit with the "if" notion raised by the OP.

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2012...gh-beta-players

___________

 

  

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Posted: 01/04/2013 12:26 PM

Re: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


Which is why depth and options are so important. You really only need two of Snyder, Tabata, Sands and Marte to do well. In the past we would be rolling the dice with one guy.

---------------------------------------------
--- gr1111 wrote:


BAMSTEELERFAN wrote:
gr1111 wrote: It is easier to win games against bad teams than good ones.

And we'll have fewer games against bad teams than we did last year.

Therefore, winning 79 games this year will be more difficult than it was last year.
Right, but it's the same for everyone.  We were not the only team that beat up on the Astros.  I'm more concerned about the state of the Pirates.  If they are not an 80-90 win team, than they aren't; if they are, they are, some one else will be bad, or have injuries.  It will all shake out, (hopefully it's not us).  Whether we have someone to bully is not something I'm going to waste time thinking about.  JMO

And, if we have to worry about that, we aren't contenders anyway.  Which, we probably aren't, but I just don't see the sense, or the point.


I think the thought was more just that it will be more difficult to win as many as 79 games this year, since we got some "free" ones last year.  It doesn't mean it can't be done (or improved upon), just that it will be more difficult than before.  I don't think there was any suggestion that it will make us any more (or less) competitive against other division foes.

Back to the issue of "ifs", there is an article on bucsdugout.com about the inordinately high number of "high-beta" players onthe Pirates roster, with that term defined as someone who could be surprisingly good, or do next to nothing.  Seems to fit with the "if" notion raised by the OP.

www.bucsdugout.com/2012...gh-beta-players

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Posted: 01/04/2013 12:46 PM

RE: 2013 Pirates are the team of "if's" 


Precisely. The Pirates have the ability to play the hot hand now and aren't married to a guy. Last year the Pirates had Presley and Tabata in the corners with Marte going to come up midseason. On paper it looked good but when both Presley and Tabata struggled early on the team didn't have guys to replace them. You didn't want to call up Marte early because the extra year of control is more important at that time. This year you can start with Marte and Snider and if one of those don't work then its Sands, Presley or Tabata. You don't have to stick with a guy for a long time if he's struggling. The same goes in the rotation. Locke, McPherson, etc.

Not every guy will work out but not every guy will fail either so having options is certainly the way to go. One spot they're thin at is third base. If Alvarez goes down with a season ending injury they have nobody that can help in the upper minors. I guess they could be creative and maybe move Walker to third.
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