Overview of the Deal

Prospect Profiles for the three minor leaguers in the trade + minor league trade acquisition Andy Oliver

Jerry Sands
Stolmy Pimentel
Ivan DeJesus
Andy Oliver

Also info on platoon options for the Pirates and the future at shortstop for the Pirates.

Oliver has the best chance of the 4 to make an impact with the Bucs, whether that be as a starter or reliever. I really like that acquisition.

I'll say Sands as he has already had a pretty decent run of beating up on major league left handed pitching. .316/.372/.532

He had exactly 19 at bats against lefties last year, and 79 in his career.

I hope he does well, but he's proven mothing yet, against lefties, righties, or anything in between.

Sands has 86 plate appearances against lefties in his career. Last year Andrew McCutchen had 151 plate appearances against lefties. I used him as an example because he played the most games for the Pirates. So Sands has a well over a half seasons worth of at bats against lefties over a season. While that isn't a certain lock but combined with his minor league track record it shows a pretty good pedigree.

katoy2j wrote: Sands has 86 plate appearances against lefties in his career. Last year Andrew McCutchen had 151 plate appearances against lefties. I used him as an example because he played the most games for the Pirates. So Sands has a well over a half seasons worth of at bats against lefties over a season. While that isn't a certain lock but combined with his minor league track record it shows a pretty good pedigree.

Again, though, we're talking about a guy who probably projects as the "short half" of a platoon.  Okay, that's somewhat useful, but far better if he could be close to an everyday player in the majors if not an out and out regular.  He doesn't look like one.  He has the look of a platoon stick.

williamjpellas wrote:

katoy2j wrote: Sands has 86 plate appearances against lefties in his career. Last year Andrew McCutchen had 151 plate appearances against lefties. I used him as an example because he played the most games for the Pirates. So Sands has a well over a half seasons worth of at bats against lefties over a season. While that isn't a certain lock but combined with his minor league track record it shows a pretty good pedigree.

Again, though, we're talking about a guy who probably projects as the "short half" of a platoon.  Okay, that's somewhat useful, but far better if he could be close to an everyday player in the majors if not an out and out regular.  He doesn't look like one.  He has the look of a platoon stick.

Quit looking at his stick, William

GhostOfPBG wrote:

williamjpellas wrote:

katoy2j wrote: Sands has 86 plate appearances against lefties in his career. Last year Andrew McCutchen had 151 plate appearances against lefties. I used him as an example because he played the most games for the Pirates. So Sands has a well over a half seasons worth of at bats against lefties over a season. While that isn't a certain lock but combined with his minor league track record it shows a pretty good pedigree.

Again, though, we're talking about a guy who probably projects as the "short half" of a platoon.  Okay, that's somewhat useful, but far better if he could be close to an everyday player in the majors if not an out and out regular.  He doesn't look like one.  He has the look of a platoon stick.

Quit looking at his stick, William

Ba-boom, crash!  Wah-wah-wah-waaaahh!!  He's appearing all week at The Chuckle Hut, give it up for GHOSTOFPGH!  Try the veal!  Tip your waiters!!  GOOD NIGHT!!! 

Matt Diaz was a really good player for Atlanta on the short end of the platoon. Over a 5 year stretch he provided 5.3 WAR of value.

Joel Hanrahan had a WAR of 1.1 last year.

He might be a platoon stick, he might be more. It's certainly worth trading Hanrahan to find out especially when you factor in you also got a perfectly capable reliever in the deal in Melancon as well.

Here is the downside risk for the Pirates. Sands flames out, Melancon is toast and the other two guys get released in the minors. For a single year of Hanrahan that isn't a huge loss if that happens.

Now what is the likely outcome of this trade. Melancon pitches to his peripherals and puts up a sub 4.00 ERA next year. If he does that you've pretty much won the trade. Hanrahan will likely be in the three range as well. At that point you still have Melancon for three more seasons as well. Sands is a platoon player and good pinch hitter. This is clearly a win for the Pirates in this scenario which involves simply Melancon being the pitcher he was a year ago.

The upside of this deal is enormous. Melancon goes back to pitching like he did in 2012 and Sands develops into an everyday corner outfielder/first baseman who hits 25 homers. Certainly not a reach considering his minor league track record. Not a lock at all either but certainly a good risk to take. Pimentel puts it together and becomes a option out of the pen or traded since it's hard to imagine him being able to crack our rotation considering the players that will be joining it in the next few years.

Honestly I would say there is about a 5% chance risk that this trade doesn't work out for the Pirates. All the Red Sox have is the 2013 season out of Hanrahan. Even if all the players the Pirates got don't work out and never play a game for the Pirates they would still win the deal if Hanrahan gets hurt or pitches poorly because of the massive difference in salaries between the players. Anything other than a sub 3.00 ERA for Hanrahan pretty much means this deal was a colossal flop for the Red Sox.

Now we will have some revisionist history because people will say it's just money but we pretty much just traded money for Iwamura also and people complained about that trade. The fact that you save money is still a positive because it was a negative in the case of Iwamura where from a player wise trade neither guy was any good.

When you have resort to an Iwamura reference to justify a trade, you know that it is getting harder and harder to carry Opie's water for him.

No because the logic has to be able to be moved both ways.

The Pirates traded for a player in Iwamura who was productive for his entire major league career. He was coming off an injury and the Pirates didn't give up anything for him just simply absorbed his salary. People on this message board complained about the trade being a horrible one when all the Pirates gave up was really money.

The Red Sox actually traded legit players for Hanrahan and he is a player who also had some injuries last year although not as severe as Iwamuras was but he also looks pretty dangerous from a conditioning perspective.

If the Iwamura trade was a bad one because it cost us money then if Hanrahan goes to Boston and gets hurt or pitches poorly then shouldn't the reverse be the case if it saved us money?

The Giants didn't get much on their end of the Matt Morris trade but they easily won that deal by simply getting rid of Matt Morris and his salary. The Blue Jays pretty much got nothing from the end results of trading Vernon Wells. It's still the best trade made the last few years because without that deal they couldn't of made all of the moves they did this year. It cost the Angels GM his job and they now owe 45 million for a bench outfielder.

I think it's a pretty safe bet the Pirates win this trade.

We traded two guys off our 2013 roster, including one of our best plaayers, for three guys who weren't going to make the Eed Sox roster, and it is a deal that never would have been made but for the need to reduce payroll.

We can all hope for the positive development of the prospects we're getting, but the deal is what it is - a classic small market to big market trade. No need to pretend otherwise.

What about the fact that Melancon has a better career K:BB than Hanrahan.  In addition, look at the FIP and xFIP of Hanrahan last year versus the same stats for Melancon.  Virtually identical.  As I've seen pointed out elsewhere, Hanrahan's 2011 looks like the aberration and 2012 is probably about his true talent.  

I'd say it's a coinflip on who's better next year, Hanrahan or Melancon.

Why do you guys persist in baiting and attacking one of the better posters on this site, Katoy? He gives solid analysis and though his opinions aren't gospel, they're quite informative and enjoyable to read.

My hope is that you guys don't drive him away from this site as I've seen it all too often on other networks. Let's allow all posters to express their opinions without the derogatory comments.  :)


wille'

I wonder id we can trade Melancon for Jed Lowrie?
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--- CutchTruth wrote:

What about the fact that Melancon has a better career K:BB than Hanrahan.  In addition, look at the FIP and xFIP of Hanrahan last year versus the same stats for Melancon.  Virtually identical.  As I've seen pointed out elsewhere, Hanrahan's 2011 looks like the aberration and 2012 is probably about his true talent.  

I'd say it's a coinflip on who's better next year, Hanrahan or Melancon.

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abitoutside wrote:
I wonder id we can trade Melancon for Jed Lowrie?
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--- CutchTruth wrote:

What about the fact that Melancon has a better career K:BB than Hanrahan.  In addition, look at the FIP and xFIP of Hanrahan last year versus the same stats for Melancon.  Virtually identical.  As I've seen pointed out elsewhere, Hanrahan's 2011 looks like the aberration and 2012 is probably about his true talent.  

I'd say it's a coinflip on who's better next year, Hanrahan or Melancon.

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Haha, I'd be in.

Yes, by all means, everybody should just agree with everything katoy says and don't post any that might contradict any of his "solid" opinions. In fact, the rest of us should stop posting entirely and turn this message board into katoy' blog.

Nobody has baited him or said anything derogatory towards him. And he's been here for years and isn't going anywhere.

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--- willemakit wrote:

Why do you guys persist in baiting and attacking one of the better posters on this site, Katoy? He gives solid analysis and though his opinions aren't gospel, they're quite informative and enjoyable to read.

My hope is that you guys don't drive him away from this site as I've seen it all too often on other networks. Let's allow all posters to express their opinions without the derogatory comments.  :)


wille'

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gr1111 wrote: Yes, by all means, everybody should just agree with everything katoy says and don't post any that might contradict any of his "solid" opinions. In fact, the rest of us should stop posting entirely and turn this message board into katoy' blog.

Nobody has baited him or said anything derogatory towards him. And he's been here for years and isn't going anywhere.

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--- willemakit wrote:

Why do you guys persist in baiting and attacking one of the better posters on this site, Katoy? He gives solid analysis and though his opinions aren't gospel, they're quite informative and enjoyable to read.

My hope is that you guys don't drive him away from this site as I've seen it all too often on other networks. Let's allow all posters to express their opinions without the derogatory comments.  :)


wille'

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C'mon GR, give the guy a break... I think it's cute that a poster has a crush on another one.  

You're right. I should not have said anything.

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--- TBayXXXVII wrote:

gr1111 wrote: Yes, by all means, everybody should just agree with everything katoy says and don't post any that might contradict any of his "solid" opinions. In fact, the rest of us should stop posting entirely and turn this message board into katoy' blog.

Nobody has baited him or said anything derogatory towards him. And he's been here for years and isn't going anywhere.

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--- willemakit wrote:

Why do you guys persist in baiting and attacking one of the better posters on this site, Katoy? He gives solid analysis and though his opinions aren't gospel, they're quite informative and enjoyable to read.

My hope is that you guys don't drive him away from this site as I've seen it all too often on other networks. Let's allow all posters to express their opinions without the derogatory comments.  :)


wille'

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C'mon GR, give the guy a break... I think it's cute that a poster has a crush on another one.  

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That's good advice, for both of you. BTW, if you don't have anything productive to add to a particular thread, don't add anything.


wille'