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Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal

Posted: 12/26/2012 10:13 AM

Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


Mark Melancon

Pirates and Red Sox complete six player trade

The Pittsburgh Pirates today acquired right-handed pitcher Mark Melancon (pronounced “muh-LAN-suhn”), outfielder/ first baseman Jerry Sands, right-handed pitcher Stolmy Pimentel and infielder Ivan DeJesus Jr. from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for right-handed pitcher Joel Hanrahan and infielder Brock Holt. Full Story | Discuss

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Posted: 12/26/2012 10:52 AM

Re: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


What can you say?  Hopefully Sands and Melanoma work out...
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:05 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


There is a good chance that Melancon is a better reliever than Hanrahan next season. Considering that you have four years of Melancon plus 6 years of Sands for one year of Hanrahan it looks like a pretty good trade. I liked Holt but he can only play one position and the Pirates have Walker there so it's an acceptable loss. With Pedroia on Boston I doubt he ever does anything for them except provide depth in AAA. DeJesus looks like a guy that won't really amount to much and Pimentel is a lottery ticket.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:14 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


While I am ok with the trade, what makes you think Melancon has a good chance at having a better season than Hanrahan next season?

Again, I am good with the deal, but I don't see how that can be said.
katoy2j wrote: There is a good chance that Melancon is a better reliever than Hanrahan next season. Considering that you have four years of Melancon plus 6 years of Sands for one year of Hanrahan it looks like a pretty good trade. I liked Holt but he can only play one position and the Pirates have Walker there so it's an acceptable loss. With Pedroia on Boston I doubt he ever does anything for them except provide depth in AAA. DeJesus looks like a guy that won't really amount to much and Pimentel is a lottery ticket.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:26 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


Melancon has good stuff and good peripherals, 8.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, he's hurt with a 1.6 HR/9. He had 1.5 very good years in Houston. I think it was a steal. I don't think we'll miss much with Melancon considering Hanny's waistline and BB/9. Sands/Snider/Tabata/Presley for one/two spot(s)...although, I'd be surprised if Jones isn't also moved for another arm, with Robinson, Sands, Sanchez in the fold. I think they should sell high on him.

Last edited 12/26/2012 11:26 AM by BAMSTEELERFAN

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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:27 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



katoy2j wrote: There is a good chance that Melancon is a better reliever than Hanrahan next season. Considering that you have four years of Melancon plus 6 years of Sands for one year of Hanrahan it looks like a pretty good trade. I liked Holt but he can only play one position and the Pirates have Walker there so it's an acceptable loss. With Pedroia on Boston I doubt he ever does anything for them except provide depth in AAA. DeJesus looks like a guy that won't really amount to much and Pimentel is a lottery ticket.
Most sites are saying this is a C- to C trade for the Pirates. I can understand the need or want to trade Hannrahan, but the return is lackluster at best. The only player that is of any value is Sands and that is only if he become the everyday RF for the Pirates.The trade does not make the Pirates better, but if all works out they should be about the same. But it did free up 7 million dollars which this trade was really all about. It was a dump of salary to pay for other transactions.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:28 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


Melancon
2011 - 0.6 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9. 2.78 ERA
2012 - 1.6 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9. 6.20 ERA

Hanrahan
2012 - 1.2 HR/9, 5.4 BB/9, 10.1 K/9. 2.72 ERA

Melancon was a ground ball pitcher who got unlucky with some extra homers allowed last year but otherwise had very strong peripherals. Coming back to the NL Central should bring his numbers back to around the 2011 mark. Hanrahan on the other end going to a tougher league and with that walk rate stands a very good chance to blow up.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:32 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



katoy2j wrote: Melancon
2011 - 0.6 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9. 2.78 ERA
2012 - 1.6 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9. 6.20 ERA

Hanrahan
2012 - 1.2 HR/9, 5.4 BB/9, 10.1 K/9. 2.72 ERA

Melancon was a ground ball pitcher who got unlucky with some extra homers allowed last year but otherwise had very strong peripherals. Coming back to the NL Central should bring his numbers back to around the 2011 mark. Hanrahan on the other end going to a tougher league and with that walk rate stands a very good chance to blow up.
Agreed completely.  Hanny is going to get lit up in the AL in my opinion.  Melancon will probably be a solid bullpen arm that could even fetch us something decent at the deadline should we go that route.
 
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:39 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



vinnybravo wrote: 

Most sites are saying this is a C- to C trade for the Pirates. I can understand the need or want to trade Hannrahan, but the return is lackluster at best. The only player that is of any value is Sands and that is only if he become the everyday RF for the Pirates.The trade does not make the Pirates better, but if all works out they should be about the same. But it did free up 7 million dollars which this trade was really all about. It was a dump of salary to pay for other transactions.

Everywhere I have looked has said it's either a good trade or grand larceny on the Pirates end.  That's quite a bit higher than C- to C.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:47 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



katoy2j wrote:
vinnybravo wrote: 

Most sites are saying this is a C- to C trade for the Pirates. I can understand the need or want to trade Hannrahan, but the return is lackluster at best. The only player that is of any value is Sands and that is only if he become the everyday RF for the Pirates.The trade does not make the Pirates better, but if all works out they should be about the same. But it did free up 7 million dollars which this trade was really all about. It was a dump of salary to pay for other transactions.

Everywhere I have looked has said it's either a good trade or grand larceny on the Pirates end.  That's quite a bit higher than C- to C.
Well I need to look at your sites then because I have not seen those ones yet. At the end of the the day we traded a proven 2 time all-star for a guy who, two years ago pitched well for 70 innings. Yet last year he stunk and a guy who we hope that can hit ML pitching, but most think he will be a platoon or bench player. A proven commodity for some 50%ers that really don't fill a need.

And for the record Melancon was probably not going to make the Red Sox roster this year and Pimentel is out of options so he was going to be released. I dont mind trading Hanrahan, but this trade will not and did not make the Pirates better, it just cleared 7 million dollars off the books.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:49 AM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



katoy2j wrote: Melancon
2011 - 0.6 HR/9, 3.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9. 2.78 ERA
2012 - 1.6 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 K/9. 6.20 ERA

Hanrahan
2012 - 1.2 HR/9, 5.4 BB/9, 10.1 K/9. 2.72 ERA

Melancon was a ground ball pitcher who got unlucky with some extra homers allowed last year but otherwise had very strong peripherals. Coming back to the NL Central should bring his numbers back to around the 2011 mark. Hanrahan on the other end going to a tougher league and with that walk rate stands a very good chance to blow up.
If you are going to use two years of Melanon why dont you use two years of Hanrahan as well? Or are you just picking and choosing stats to try and make your opinion look better?
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Posted: 12/26/2012 12:23 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


I'm using two years for Melancon to show that his ERA wildly fluctuated for no real good reason. Or at least not one nearly enough to double an ERA. Melancon pretty much showed improvement from 2011 to 2012.

If I had shown Hanrahan's 2011 stats

2011 - 0.1 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9 it doesn't really do anything except show that the HR/9 and BB/9 are complete aberrations. Having a 0.1 HR/9 is pretty unsustainable and his 2.1 BB/9 is by far his career best. The fact that his 2012 stats come out the way they do is a huge red flag since his HR/9 and BB/9 are well above his career norms 0.8 HR/9 and 4.3 BB/9. What 201 shows is that he had a career year. Considering he was floating below a 1.00 ERA for much of the season I don't think anyone will deny that.

I would put the odds at 50/50 that Hanrahan has an ERA above 4.00 next season. I would not be shocked either if he goes down with some health issues. His fastball has lost velocity from 2011 to 2012.

2011
MIN velocity - 92.3 MPH
MAX velocity - 99.5 MPH
AVG velocity - 97.0 MPH

2012
MIN velocity - 88.5 MPH
MAX velocity - 98.8 MPH
AVG velocity - 95.8 MPH

The real scary thing is that he's using his slider a lot more now. In 2011 he threw 848 fastballs and 170 sliders. In 2012 he threw 762 fastballs and 250 sliders.

Lastly the biggest reason I'm worried is that he isn't very good against right handed batters because of his dependence on the slider.

Vs RHB
.236/.354/.409

Vs LHB
.135/.256/.269

Lets also remember that he's going to be playing around half his games in Boston which is a pretty good environment for RHB.

He's going to be allowing a lot of extra hits next year because the park plays so small. In PNC left field is massive so Hanrahan can give up fly balls that are going to be outs most of the time to right handed batters. Fenway on the other hand I believe the wall is going to get beaten up from hits off of Hanrahan.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 12:24 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



katoy2j wrote: There is a good chance that Melancon is a better reliever than Hanrahan next season. Considering that you have four years of Melancon plus 6 years of Sands for one year of Hanrahan it looks like a pretty good trade.
Unless your name is John Grabow, there is no 6 years of club control in Pittsburgh.  Trading Hanrahan proves that.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 12:31 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


Yeah but you got 3.5 years instead of 4.5 and traded that extra year for 10-16 years of other players. Looks like a good trade to me. If three years down the line they flip Melancon for a couple of prospects I'll also be fine with it.

What is the growing desire to have a player reach free agency as a Pirate and have them leave for another organization and have us get nothing back?

If the Pirates had been a playoff team the last three years then it would be a different story.  The extra win Hanrahan has the potential to offer the team means a lot more when it's the possible difference between 91 and 92 wins.  It means nothing when it's the difference between 84 and 85 wins.

Last edited 12/26/2012 12:33 PM by katoy2j

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Posted: 12/26/2012 12:42 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



katoy2j wrote: What is the growing desire to have a player reach free agency as a Pirate and have them leave for another organization and have us get nothing back?
I think everyone knew Hanrahan was gone.  It would have been nice to get more than a 27 year old and a 25 year old that have struggled at the major league level.  For whatever reason, Huntington seemingly could only make a deal with his Boston friends.  Melancon could be better than Hanrahan, or he could struggle with his control in AAA.  If the Pirates can't move Tabata or Sanchez, Sands probably starts the season in AAA.

The Pirates also have to take (2) players off the 40 man roster.  One from the trade, and one for Liriano.  Stolmy has a shot of being one of those two players.  Stolmy is the youngest Pirate on the 40 man roster - being born 2/1/90.  Yes, players born in 1990 are now on a ML 40 man roster...

Last edited 12/26/2012 12:52 PM by Sangue

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Posted: 12/26/2012 1:05 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


Yeah but you got 3.5 years instead of 4.5 and traded that extra year for 10-16 years of other players. Looks like a good trade to me. If three years down the line they flip Melancon for a couple of prospects I'll also be fine with it.


Groan.  Yes, katoy, of course these sorts of economic considerations do enter into the proceedings, and they do count.  No question.  I'm with you there.  The problem comes in when the "players the Pirates control" just aren't any good.  In that case, then yes, you are better off doubling down on your bet, so to speak, staying the course with the veteran(s), and going for it.  If you make the postseason, the additional revenue would probably let you hang onto some veterans you'd otherwise have to trade or let walk in free agency.  So there is a very real benefit to "going for it"---IF you make it.  This sort of thing never seems to enter your thinking.  For you, it's always about WAR and payroll and very little else, at least, as far as I can see for as long as I've been reading your posts. 


Now, again, I am on record as being in favor of trading Hanrahan, in principle.  Considering that he is 1) badly out of shape, and 2) just one season away from his free agent walk year, I don't think Opie did badly here.  He just didn't do great.  Unless Sands turns into a productive, righthanded hitting version of Garrett Jones, which he might.  I like Melancon as a bounceback candidate and as some insurance in the event Grilli spits the bit.  If Melancon can return to form, the back of our 'pen ought to be nearly as good it not as good as it was the past two seasons with Grilli and Hanrahan.  Guys like Sands and Melancon are fairly good risks.  They're no longer exactly young, but they are in their mid to late 20s and that's when ballplayers hit whatever peak they're going to hit.  And Pimentel is, as you say, "a lottery ticket".  I'm not saying these players are terrible or that they'll never amount to anything.  Just that I was hoping for more than spare parts and part timers in exchange for a closer who was an All Star in back to back seasons, even if he is a tub o' lard and even if he is a year away from free agency.  In other words, I'd rather have seen the Pirates get two better than average players than four spare parts-part timers-bouncebackers-rolls of the dice.  Oh, well. noidea
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Posted: 12/26/2012 1:07 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


Stolmy isn't on the 40 man roster so he isn't a risk.

Melancon takes Hanrahans spot on the 40 man and Sands takes Holts

All they need is one spot for Liriano which will likely come at the cost of a guy like Rick Vanden Hurk.

Saying that Melancon has struggled is no different than saying that Hanrahan has also struggled. Hanrahan has a career 3.74 ERA while Melancons is 4.07. This comes despite the prime years of Hanrahan being gone and Melancon just entering them now as well as posting a 6.20 ERA last year.

Peripherals wise the two players careers stack up this way

Melancon - 8.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 8.2 K/9
Hanrahan - 8.1 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.3 BB/9, 9.9 K/9
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Posted: 12/26/2012 1:07 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 


BTW, anybody know if Sands is any good defensively?
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Posted: 12/26/2012 1:10 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



Sangue wrote:

The Pirates also have to take (2) players off the 40 man roster.  One from the trade, and one for Liriano.  Stolmy has a shot of being one of those two players.  Stolmy is the youngest Pirate on the 40 man roster - being born 2/1/90.  Yes, players born in 1990 are now on a ML 40 man roster...
Incorrect

You only have to be on the 40 man roster to be protected from the rule 5 draft.  He doesn't have enough years to elect for minor league free agency so the Pirates can keep him off of the 40 man for all of the 2013 season.  They get a year to work with him and evaluate him and can decide if they want to add him on the 40 man at the end of the season to protect him from the 2014 rule 5 draft.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 1:11 PM

RE: Bucs, Red Sox finalize deal 



williamjpellas wrote: BTW, anybody know if Sands is any good defensively?
He was rated as the best defensive first baseman in his league a year ago I believe.
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