Talk about a signing that's going to blow up in your face. $10 M for mediocrity.

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/2783427631 98689281

Yikes, perhaps I should bump the Twins down to 30th from 29th in my rankings.

5 million is a pretty decent chunk of change and should be able to buy you better than Kevin Correia. At least when the Pirates signed him Correia was still striking guys out so he had the potential for some upside. Going to the American league though will really kill him since he's also homer prone. I doubt he finishes the year with an ERA below 5.

The Twins are really a mess as they seem to really enjoy acquiring Pirates cast offs. From the end of the season into free agency they've had Matt Capps, Ryan Doumit, Kevin Correia, Jeff Clement and Eric Fryer. I expect them to bid big on Ronny Cedeno next. The whole AL central though is a bit of a joke. Detroit didn't even really start playing well till September and still managed to win it. Both the ALE and ALW had three teams with a better record than the Tigers.

Which explains why the Royals decided to cash some chips in, import a couple of good Rays pitchers, and go for it.  The White Sox are on the verge of being a horrible team.  While they seem to be the type of organization that has great intangibles and that routinely outperforms expectations, their best players are old and getting older and they have next to nothing in their farm system.  I think they are about to get really bad, really fast.  Cleveland stinks and needs a total rebuild.  The Twins are horrible---though I think Terry Ryan, in his return as GM, will eventually get them back to competitiveness, perhaps in 3 years or so. 


Realistically, that leaves only the Tigers, and while they are the class of the AL Central, they are a team that still has flaws.  They are by no means invincible.  This is why the Royals did what they did with the much-vilified James Shields trade.  While I don't know that I would have traded Wil Myers, on the other hand you have to bite the bullet and give quality to get quality, and Shields is one of the better pitchers in the game today.  In that division, only the Tigers have a better ace.  Personally I salute the Royals for going for it.  At some point the rebuilding, as such, has to end, and you have to go all in and make a real effort a winning.  Major league baseball is not, or should not be at any rate, an accounting class case study.  The objective is to win and win big.  If you're not willing to do what it takes to do that, you are not a major league organization.  Rebuilding is fine and particularly with small market teams, the minor league system has to be the foundation and the biggest source of talent.  Okay.  But part of the reason you build a system is to have surplus that you can trade to acquire established veterans who will help get you over the top.  The Royals at least are trying to do that.  I don't see the Pirates doing the same thing---not yet.

As for Correia, it's no secret that I like him more than a lot of people do.  But it's difficult to see him being as useful a guy in the American League as he has been in the National League.  Then again he has somehow gutted his way to a respectable major league career despite not having swing and miss stuff.  I wouldn't sell him short.

It wasn't just Wil Myers though who was the best power prospect in all of baseball it was 3 of the teams top 6 prospects for two years to pay James Shields.

Like I said I would of signed Shawn Marcum and kept all the prospects. The pitching staff isn't as good but it's pretty close and you can use Myers in your outfield for an extra boost. It's one thing to trade prospects for major leaguers like the Reds did last year getting Mat Latos. Latos was cheap and he fits the Reds payroll structure. However Shields makes a lot of money.

Lets do a comparison here.

The Rays acquired 2 years of James Shields in which they will pay him 9 million in 2013 and 12 million in 2014 for a total of 21 million. Now it looks like 2011 is the career year for James Shields as it clearly sticks out. Lets assume that James Shields is likely to produce at his 2012 rate through the 2013 and 2014 seasons. If that is the case he is good for a 3.52 ERA. I'll ignore Wade Davis here because I don't know what his role will be and he isn't likely to have a lot of value as his salary is quite high and he didn't have a lot of success as a starter. He has value but he likely would of been a guy Tampa Bay would of given away for a song because he he costs too much for his role.

In exchange for that the Royals gave up Wil Myers the number 3 ranked prospect in all of baseball, Jake Odorizzi the 30th ranked prospect in all of baseball and Mike Montgomery who a year earlier was ranked as the Royals best prospect. As well as another prospect. So all of that yields the Royals with 2 years of Shields at a cost of 21 million dollars

Now lets compare that to what the Pirates did. They traded for Wandy Rodriguez. He's been a very consistent pitcher from 2008-2012. He had a low of 3.02 ERA in 2009 and a high of 3.76 ERA in 2012 By all points of reference that is fairly consistent. The other three years he's had ERA's of 3.49, 3.54 and 3.60 respectively. Lets saw it off right in the middle and say he's good for about a 3.54 ERA which is about the same ballpark as James Shields.

Now the Pirates likely have Rodriguez through the 2014 season as well but they also got him for part of the 2012 season as well. Lets throw out the 2012 value out the window though and use that extra bonus to even out the fact that Shields pitches in the AL and Rodriguez in the NL. The Pirates will pay Rodriguez 17.5 million over the course of the two seasons or 3.5 million less than the Royals will pay for Shields.

Now lets look at the cost to acquire Rodriguez. The price was Robbie Grossman, Colton Cain and Rudy Owens. This is the crazy part when you look at the two deals. The third player in the Kansas City deal in Mike Montgomery would likely be better than any player in this trade. While the Astros got a few solid prospects here none of these players have superstar potential. Grossman should be a solid CF'er but Rodriguez is a bonafide number two starter so that is a fair price to pay. Certainly though he isn't even in the same breath as Wil Myers. Rudy Owens really regressed after going to Houston but that could also be because of the PCL. He looks like a back end of the rotation starter. While that has value especially since he will be cheap he also isn't anywhere close to Jake Odorizzi. Both players are in AAA and will likely see time in the majors in 2013. Lastly Colton Cain also regressed big time after going to Houston. He's still only 21 though and reaching high A ball at that age is pretty good. That said Montgomery was in AAA in 2012 and prior to the 2012 season was ranked 23rd best prospect in baseball. That has to be significantly better than Cain.

All in all the Royals traded what you could value as three of the top 30 prospects in all of baseball. That is the equivalent of the Pirates giving up Jameson Taillon, Gerrit Cole and Starling Marte for Wandy Rodriguez. If the Pirates had made that trade people would be going bonkers.

Even if you want to give James Shields a slight edge over Wandy Rodriguez it certainly isn't massive by any means. The price to acquire the two players couldn't be any different though. Rodriguez was traded for players who were legitimately excess in the Pirates system. It was very difficult for the players the Pirates traded to be able to crack the team because of the options above them. They also wern't potential impact players but more secondary pieces. The Royals on the other hand traded three impact prospects for basically the same thing and they could of used all three players on their major league team in 2013.

The Pirates already acquired James Shields. He's just named Wandy Rodriguez. They also did it for about ten cents on the dollar for what the Royals paid to get Shields. Put it this way if you could of told me the Pirates could of traded Robbie Grossman, Rudy Owens and Colton Cain for Jake Odorizzi straight up I would of told you the Pirates made out like bandits in that deal.

The price paid by the Royals for Shields was insane. Heck the Pirates also got two years of AJ Burnett at a cheaper salary price than James Shields per year for two guys that are out of baseball now I believe.

I know a lot of people like to take shots at Huntington but it's after deals like the Royals just made where we should be thankful we have a competent GM with a long term plan.

williamjpellas wrote: As for Correia, it's no secret that I like him more than a lot of people do.  But it's difficult to see him being as useful a guy in the American League as he has been in the National League.  Then again he has somehow gutted his way to a respectable major league career despite not having swing and miss stuff.  I wouldn't sell him short.

2012 season:

Kevin Correia:      171 innings pitched, 4.21 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 12 wins
James McDonald:  171 innings pitched, 4.21 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 12 wins

I agree with katoy, that was a horrible trade for KC. But I am not as high on Wandy as you might be.

vinnybravo wrote: I agree with katoy, that was a horrible trade for KC. But I am not as high on Wandy as you might be.

Not only that, there are a few other factors he forgets to mention.  Myers is a high strikeout guy and there was some concern in the Royals' organization that his K's were too high.  Montgomery may have been a hotshot prospect in 2011, but in 2012 he had an ERA over 6.00.  And while katoy's characterization of Wandy Rodriguez' ability is fine as far as it goes, Shields is further ahead of Wandy than katoy's post would indicate when it's all said and done.  To wit:


200+ K seasons for Wandy: zero.  200+ K seasons for Shields: the last two in a row.  Career complete games and shutouts for Wandy: 2 and 2.  Shields: 19 and 8.  To be sure, many of their other numbers are pretty close.  But the point is that Shields has another gear that Wandy does not have.  THAT is what separates a pitcher who can be an ace from a pitcher who is merely good---which is not a putdown of Wandy, not at all.  Just sayin'. 


At the end of the day, did KC overpay for Shields?  Perhaps.  It's too early to tell if you ask me.  What happens if the Royals get into the postseason once or twice over the next two years, with not only Shields but Davis doing good work the whole time, but in Tampa, Montgomery flames out, Myers takes another two or three years to develop, and Odorizzi becomes "just a guy".  How does that trade look now?

I don't know. KC may have just traded the next Giancarlo Stanton for 2 years of Shields, plus 2 other good prospects. They lost big and it's why the Rays will continue to be contenders and KC will continue to be...well...KC.

BAMSTEELERFAN wrote: I don't know. KC may have just traded the next Giancarlo Stanton for 2 years of Shields, plus 2 other good prospects. They lost big and it's why the Rays will continue to be contenders and KC will continue to be...well...KC.

It's far too early to call Wil Myers "the next Giancarlo Stanton".  Stanton, to my mind, is already one of the best power hitters in the game today.  Right now. He might even be THE best, though I want to see what Albert Pujols has left in the tank before I say that he has passed the torch.  The only thing that has slowed Stanton down even a little bit is a few nagging injuries.  Yes, he is a guy who fans more than I would like; I need to say that in order to be consistent with my other posts on that subject.  But that is the only flaw in his game that I can see, and even that is not something that significantly detracts from the whole package that he brings to the table.  To hit 37 home runs in 123 games at age 23 is ridiculous.  I mean, that is scary good.  Myers has a long way to go before he approaches Stanton territory.

williamjpellas wrote:

BAMSTEELERFAN wrote: I don't know. KC may have just traded the next Giancarlo Stanton for 2 years of Shields, plus 2 other good prospects. They lost big and it's why the Rays will continue to be contenders and KC will continue to be...well...KC.

It's far too early to call Wil Myers "the next Giancarlo Stanton".  Stanton, to my mind, is already one of the best power hitters in the game today.  Right now. He might even be THE best, though I want to see what Albert Pujols has left in the tank before I say that he has passed the torch.  The only thing that has slowed Stanton down even a little bit is a few nagging injuries.  Yes, he is a guy who fans more than I would like; I need to say that in order to be consistent with my other posts on that subject.  But that is the only flaw in his game that I can see, and even that is not something that significantly detracts from the whole package that he brings to the table.  To hit 37 home runs in 123 games at age 23 is ridiculous.  I mean, that is scary good.  Myers has a long way to go before he approaches Stanton territory.

Key word was, may, obviously Myers hasn't done it yet.  KC lost big.  Shields and Davis most likely do not push this team over the hump.  However, they do have some talented young arms that could suddenly figure it out.  Even so, it's likely that Myers becomes a cornerstone of the Rays outfield for the next 6 years and there's a good chance the other 2 prospects make significant contributions.

I will always remember Correia for his pouting and sitting alone in the bullpen.  That being said he played at the value of his Pirates contract. 

I'm afraid to ask who the last Pirates pitcher to win 12 games in consecutive seasons was...

That would be Denny Neagle....14 wins in 1996 and 13 in 1995.  Ugh!

Cordova came close (11 in 1997 and 13 in 1998)
Schmidt as well (11 in 1998 and 13 in 1999)

Sangue wrote: I will always remember Correia for his pouting and sitting alone in the bullpen.  That being said he played at the value of his Pirates contract. 

I'm afraid to ask who the last Pirates pitcher to win 12 games in consecutive seasons was...

Like I said, I can't get over the hostility so many Pirates fans had/have toward Correia.  Particularly when you factor in how much the team paid him to win 24 ballgames over the past two seasons.  Which wasn't much, relatively speaking.  I think he was a very good free agent signing and his body of work while in black and gold, while certainly nothing overwhelming, was nothing to sneeze at, either.  He was exactly what you want in a fourth/fifth starter: a guy who will take the ball every time out, give you reliable if unspectacular performance, keep you in most games, and eat lots of innings.  What's wrong with any of that? 


That said, it's beyond pathetic that he was the first Pirates starting pitcher to win 12 or more games two years running since Denny Neagle in 1995.  My goodness, we've been horrible for a long time!