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Re: 2012 : The Continuum

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Posted: 2/6/2012 6:00 PM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 


Yeah, this guy sure can connect with people. biggrin

Posted: 2/7/2012 10:31 AM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 


Last week, the White House claimed that unemployment dropped for the fifth consecutive month to 8.3 percent — the lowest it has been in nearly three years — after adding 243,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But financial experts are saying the figures may have been manipulated — and that the significant drop in employment was because of the fact that the federal agency charged with computing key economic data has significantly decreased the number of Americans in the workforce.

“If you hold the workforce participation rate constant over the past year, unemployment would be about 8.9 percent instead of 8.3 percent,” GOP economist Matt McDonald of Hamilton Place Strategies said Monday on CNBC’s Squawk Box. "So it is a weird number that is out there, and I think people have to be looking at that carefully
.”

The same Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that showed unemployment dropping to 8.3 percent showed total workforce participation — the number of people either working or looking for work — declining by 1.2 million people in one month.

The unemployment rate is determined by dividing the number of unemployed job-seekers by the total labor force. By reducing the number of workers in the overall workforce, the Obama administration can show actual unemployment dropping, when, in fact, improvement has been marginal at best.

Many economists feel the official statistics seriously underestimate how bad the unemployment situation really is. They maintain that the key measure is the number of people who would like to have a job, but can’t find one.

When people retire from the workforce because of the aging of the nation’s population or give up looking for work because of prolonged unemployment, the BLS declares the unemployed person a “discouraged worker.”

At that point, the BLS lists them as “marginally attached to the workforce,” and they no longer are considered to be part of the nation’s working population.

Dropping them off the employment calculations keeps the unemployment rate substantially lower than it would be otherwise and has been key to the improvements in the unemployment numbers during the past year.

Tyler Durden of Zerohedge.com writes: “It appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million.”

In fact, Zerohedge notes that BLS is breaking records in claims about the shrinking workforce. The most recent unemployment number was based on the assertion that the entire U.S. workforce has shrunk to a 30-year low.

An analysis by Joseph Curl of the Washington Times shows the labor force as a percentage of the available population hit 66 percent in October 1988, and remained there throughout the presidency of George H.W. Bush. It then reached 67 percent or better for 40 straight months during President Bill Clinton’s presidency, and was above 66 percent for virtually all of President George W. Bush’s presidency.

But by the end of President Obama’s first year in office, it had dipped to 64.6 percent, before dipping to just 63.7 percent last month — its lowest point in almost three decades.

One analyst who is stridently critical of the BLS numbers is TrimTabs.com CEO Charles Biderman. His firm uses what he considers a more modern and timely measurement, actual tax receipts to the IRS, to calculate employment.

By his firm’s calculations, the economy added only 44,000 jobs in January, not even enough to keep the unemployment rate from growing.

The BLS numbers "are just guesses,” Biderman tells Newsmax. “I don’t know whether they’re politically motivated or not."

The White House is doing "cartwheels" over the positive jobs numbers being promulgated from the BLS, the Christian Science Monitor says.

"These numbers will go up and down in the coming months, and there's still far too many Americans who need a job or need a job that pays better than the one they have now,” President Obama said. “But the economy is growing stronger.”

BLS spokesman Gary Steinberg tells Newsmax that the bureau publishes its methodologies for calculating the unemployment rate online. While its tweaks its various formulas to keep them up to date, he states there has been no major change in how the rate is calculated in over a decade.

“The definitions have not changed . . . if someone is not actively looking for work for the four weeks preceding the reference week, they’re not in the labor force,” he says. “That was true years ago, and it’s true today.”



http://www.newsmax.com/Headlin...omo_code=E1D2-1


In a nutshell, if you drop the people looking for a job, and then divide that number by the total jobs (which the BLS is saying FELL by 1.2 million FEWER jobs) the UR can drop to 8.3%

No big news there, right? My question is where did that 1.2 million go? I already posted the BLS's stats for DEC of '11 which 132.6 million and 130.2 million in Jan '12. Only 1.2 million were taken out for seasonally adjusted numbers. WHERE ARE THE REST.

Answer: look at the % of Americans in the laborforce under BHO. This is America's hope & change...less total jobs & people not counted.

Posted: 2/7/2012 12:33 PM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 


The jobless rate reported today is “corrupt as it can be” because President Barack Obama’s administration has decreased the size of the workforce, Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show.

According to the Department of Labor, employers added almost a quarter of a million jobs in January. According to Limbaugh, it eliminated 2 ½ million positions.

“The number of jobs not available to be filled exploded by an unprecedented, record number of 1.2 million,” he said. “That’s not a typo. That’s part of this 2 ½ million fewer jobs. It is corrupt as it can be.”

He said the shrinking of “the overall universe of jobs” led to the misconstrued dip in the unemployment rate, to 8.3, from 8.5 in December.

“No president has ever been re-elected when the unemployment rate’s over 8 percent, so guess what it’s going to be by the time we get to Election Day,” he said.



Read more on Newsmax.com: Rush: Obama's Jobless Numbers Are 'Corrupt' 

I understand that the figures are calculated the same way all of the time for seasonal adjustments, but Rush does raise a great question through his comments...how do you make the 1.2 million vanish? and, are we going to continue to see a lower % of people working while the unemployment rate goes down?

Posted: 2/7/2012 12:44 PM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 


I love that there are "GOP economists." The whole thing is a joke, and it's just politics. I am not saying one party is blameless, I saying that most readily admit this is politics, and that the numbers BLS uses are what they use.  That's all there is to it.  They are not manipulating figures, they are just using a commonly accepted approach because its more feasible to calculate it that way.

To continue to borrow from your examples, gas prices have nothing to do Keystone XL. Yet, it's clear that will be a talking point. Dems will say, "you need to look closer at the numbers," but aint no one going to listen. Do you think anyone listens to real facts about Obama care? Doubtful.

Last edited 2/7/2012 12:46 PM by dcmets

Posted: 2/7/2012 12:57 PM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 



dcmets wrote: I love that there are "GOP economists." The whole thing is a joke, and it's just politics. I am not saying one party is blameless, I saying that most readily admit this is politics, and that the numbers BLS uses are what they use.  That's all there is to it.  They are not manipulating figures, they are just using a commonly accepted approach because its more feasible to calculate it that way.

To continue to borrow from your examples, gas prices have nothing to do Keystone XL. Yet, it's clear that will be a talking point. Dems will say, "you need to look closer at the numbers," but aint no one going to listen. Do you think anyone listens to real facts about Obama care? Doubtful.
dc, the keysotne things is more about jobs, IMO.

Listen, I agree with the highlighted. I do not consider "seasonal adjustments" manipulation. But that's only 1/2 of the jobs that went off of the books from Decmeber to January.

Where did the other half go?

Posted: 2/7/2012 1:11 PM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 


The Keystone talking points are more about jobs, but there are several who will campaign on thousands of more jobs, reduced dependance on foreign oil and lower gas prices. I think all of those points are factually dubious, but I understand perfectly why Reps do it. Its politcs.

I think everyone will definitely your "seasonal bump" argument if the jobs level off in Feb or March, or go down a chunk. But, if jobs figures stay over $150K for the next several months, it's an uphill battle to argue about the how the books were made. No one will care.

Posted: 2/7/2012 1:27 PM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 



dcmets wrote: The Keystone talking points are more about jobs, but there are several who will campaign on thousands of more jobs, reduced dependance on foreign oil and lower gas prices. I think all of those points are factually dubious, but I understand perfectly why Reps do it. Its politcs.

I think everyone will definitely your "seasonal bump" argument if the jobs level off in Feb or March, or go down a chunk. But, if jobs figures stay over $150K for the next several months, it's an uphill battle to argue about the how the books were made. No one will care.

On the KSXL, just the contruction jobs would be in the tens of thousands, and the cost of shipping from a trade partner would be next to nothing bc of the pipeline...it stands to reason that the Arab Oil Suppliers would have to lower their prices...hence cheaper gas.

I agree. J.Q. Public doesn't care about how these #'s are turned into sausage...no doubt. But, and this is as big of a butt as Queen Latifa's, they do care if they feel like they aren't securely employed, lost a job, or have freinds & family who cannot find jobs...

that lack of  jobs are the ones Mr. Public cares about. So when he is told the rate is 8.3% when all of those people are out of work, do you think he's paying attention.

Last edited 2/8/2012 7:44 AM by skopko

Posted: 2/7/2012 1:46 PM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 


towel heads??? come on, you're better than that
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Posted: 2/7/2012 1:50 PM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 



skopko wrote:
...it stands to reason that the towel heads would have to lower their prices...
Are you serious with this crap?
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Posted: 2/7/2012 2:06 PM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 



hobson54 wrote: towel heads??? come on, you're better than that
you sure about that?
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson
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Posted: 2/7/2012 5:19 PM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 


It's been my understanding that people out of work for more than 12 months are considered "not looking for work". These people are dropped from the unemployment rolls despite not having found a job. Also, people who cannot find a job and take a part time job are also dropped despite not working full time. This is complete BS, but i don't think it's political as I believe these methods have been in place for many years.

Posted: 2/7/2012 5:42 PM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 



danfran wrote: It's been my understanding that people out of work for more than 12 months are considered "not looking for work". These people are dropped from the unemployment rolls despite not having found a job. Also, people who cannot find a job and take a part time job are also dropped despite not working full time. This is complete BS, but i don't think it's political as I believe these methods have been in place for many years.
Its not really BS either.  It's just hard to calculate when people arent looking for work or collecting unemployment.  The data is not easy to come by.
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Posted: 2/7/2012 11:48 PM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 


It appears that Google Santorum is going to win MN, Missouri (which is meaningless), and Colorado. eek
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Posted: 2/8/2012 1:17 AM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 


It's official. Google Santorum sweeps all three states! laugh.gif

Posted: 2/8/2012 8:04 AM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 



dcmets wrote:
danfran wrote: It's been my understanding that people out of work for more than 12 months are considered "not looking for work". These people are dropped from the unemployment rolls despite not having found a job. Also, people who cannot find a job and take a part time job are also dropped despite not working full time. This is complete BS, but i don't think it's political as I believe these methods have been in place for many years.
Its not really BS either.  It's just hard to calculate when people arent looking for work or collecting unemployment.  The data is not easy to come by.

You don't try to prove the negative when data is so easy to come by with the affirmative. Every W2 employee has taxes taken out. those taxes are tied to a Soc. Sec. #.  & the employer that sends the $$$ to the Treasury.

It's easy to track the REAL NUMBER...people who are working. As I illlustrated, by the decline of % of people working in relation to the population in Jan of '12, THIS PRESIDENT IS A FAILURE. LESS PEOPLE ARE WORKING NOW THAN WHEN HIS JOB "INCREASES" STARTED IN '10.

Posted: 2/8/2012 8:07 AM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 



DuffyDyer wrote:
hobson54 wrote: towel heads??? come on, you're better than that
you sure about that?

Apologies to all. I am sincerely sorry for offending anyone, and not being politically correct. No ill will was intended...

I thank you in advance for the forgiveness.

Posted: 2/8/2012 9:18 AM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 



skopko wrote:
DuffyDyer wrote:
hobson54 wrote: towel heads??? come on, you're better than that
you sure about that?

Apologies to all. I am sincerely sorry for offending anyone, and not being politically correct. No ill will was intended...

I thank you in advance for the forgiveness.
They can forgive you for that.
What they can't forgive you for is writing in bold capital letters. tongue

Later
"You spend a good part of your life gripping the baseball, and in the end it turns out it was the other way around all the time." Jim Bouton

Posted: 2/8/2012 9:42 AM

RE: 2012 : The Continuum 



NewMFS62 wrote:
skopko wrote:
DuffyDyer wrote:
hobson54 wrote: towel heads??? come on, you're better than that
you sure about that?

Apologies to all. I am sincerely sorry for offending anyone, and not being politically correct. No ill will was intended...

I thank you in advance for the forgiveness.
They can forgive you for that.
What they can't forgive you for is writing in bold capital letters. tongue

Later
Thanks, NewMF. I will try to keep the caps to a minimum. wink
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Posted: 2/8/2012 9:46 AM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 



RSVandy wrote: It appears that Google Santorum is going to win MN, Missouri (which is meaningless), and Colorado. eek
the GOP nomination process is nearly in as much disarray as the Mets.  biggrin
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson

Posted: 2/8/2012 9:55 AM

Re: 2012 : The Continuum 



DuffyDyer wrote:
RSVandy wrote: It appears that Google Santorum is going to win MN, Missouri (which is meaningless), and Colorado. eek
the GOP nomination process is nearly in as much disarray as the Mets.  biggrin

I love it. The thing that I loved the most was the grass roots appeal to the victories. Rick Santorum has (for all intents and purposes) no money...but 4 wins.

Messages are alive & well in America.
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