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Sickel's Mets top prospect list..

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Posted: 12/26/2011 12:36 PM

Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


It should be coming out in the next couple of days, he posted on his site he is working on it now.

I've found him to be one of the better sites when it comes to free scouting reports.  I'll post it when it is up, here is the site if anyone wants to gradually check.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/
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Posted: 12/26/2011 1:24 PM

Re: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


I'm looking forward to reading this.  If I had to guess, our top 10 or so will be as follows:

Wheeler - A-
Harvey - B+
Familia - B+ (possibly just a B depending on whether Sickels believes in him as a starter)
Nimmo - B
Mejia - B-
Fulmer - B-
Flores - B- (said he wasn't given up on him last August; C+ wouldn't surprise me)
Kirk - B-/C+
Havens - C+
Puello - C+
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Posted: 12/26/2011 1:39 PM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


My prediction for what Sickels will rank is this:

Wheeler - B+
Harvey - B+
Familia - B
Nimmo - B
Fulmer - B-
Kirk - B-
Mejia - B-
Flores - C+
Havens - C+
Puello - C+

I think that the Mets have a lot of interesting prospects in the C range right now. I'm most interested to see how Sickels will rank Osvaldo.

Last edited 12/26/2011 1:42 PM by RSVandy

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Posted: 12/27/2011 2:08 PM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


Report should be out sometime this afternoon.
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Posted: 12/27/2011 3:41 PM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


Yeah, I'll guess maybe 8/9 B- or better, maybe 15 C+ or better.
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Posted: 12/27/2011 3:51 PM

Re: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


Here is the article via http://www.minorleagueball.com...spects-for-2012


1) Matt Harvey, RHP, Grade B+:
He can be a number two starter and someone to build around. Some evaluators see him more as a closer if his changeup remains erratic, but I'm cutting him some slack on that issue and am optimistic.

2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B+: This is actually more like Harvey -A and Wheeler 1-B. They are very close but Harvey is closer to being ready. Like Harvey, I see Wheeler as a future number two starter and staff anchor. He made big strides with his control last year. Like Harvey his changeup needs more work, but I'm optimistic about him given the improvements he's already made.

3) Jeurys Familia, RHP, Grade B: Control still needs work, but took a major step forward towards harnessing his stuff. Could be a number three starter, perhaps more with additional changeup refinement. Could also end up as a fine closer.

4) Brandon Nimmo, OF, Grade B: Borderline B-. One of my favorite players from the 2011 draft. Strong tools, skills are more refined than you think given his Wyoming background. There's some risk here but lots of upside too.

5) Cesar Puello, OF, Grade B-: Tough to grade and I'm not really comfortable with this guy. Tools are very impressive and he started tapping into his power. However his strike zone judgment slipped badly, with a dramatic reduction in his walk rate and increase in strikeouts. Power improvement was cancelled out by loss of OBP, and Double-A pitchers will easily exploit his over-aggressiveness. However, many scouts really like him and think he's going to break through, plus he was just 20 last year. Upside is very high but risk of failure is quite high as well.

6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Grade B-: Positives here are solid tools, high walk rate, moderate power (secondary average skills). Weaknesses include high strikeout rate and inability to hit left-handed pitching. I've seen him compared to Brett Jackson but Jackson is a better athlete and younger. Kirk looks like a very solid platoon player/fourth outfielder to me. Doesn't have Puello's ceiling but a much higher floor. I've gone back and forth about 10 times between Kirk and Cesar in the 5/6 spots.

7) Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B-: Waiting on Tommy John recovery at this point. I've liked him for awhile but he was handled badly by previous administration and it is still unclear if he's a starter or reliever going forward.

8) Reese Havens, 2B, Grade B-: Borderline C+. I like his power/patience combination and ability to handle second base, but his health care expenses have helped bankrupt the organization. If he manages to avoid injuries he can be a .260 hitter with 15 homers and a fine OBP.

9) Wilmer Flores, 3B-SS, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Still very young at age 20. Switch over to third base increases pressure on his bat. Will he develop sufficient power for that position? He keeps his strikeout rate low but power hasn't blossomed as Mets hoped, granted he was promoted aggressively. Stock is starting to sag but it isn't too late yet.

10) Cory Mazzoni, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-: North Carolina State product has sound combination of solid stuff and command. I don't think he got as much attention as he deserved in pitching-rich 2011 draft class and I expect good things from him.

11) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Grade C+: Live-armed Oklahoma high school kid, upside of a number two or three starter, but rather raw. Ceiling higher than Mazzoni but risk of failure is higher as well.

12) Jordan Valdespin, 2B-SS, Grade C+: Will probably rank higher on other lists. Tools and athleticism stand out, developed more power this year, but high-maintenance mercurial personality and sloppy strike zone judgment make me wary that he'll fulfill his potential.

13) Phillip Evans, 2B-SS, Grade C+: Overslot $650,000 bonus for 15th round pick could end up being a bargain if Evans develops as I expect...above-average hitter with some pop and solid glovework at second. Excellent makeup. Need more data, could be much higher next year.

14) Cory Vaughn, OF, Grade C+: Slump in High-A could be related to painful heel injury. I like his tools and he's flashed the skills to make them meaningful. Stock could be considerably higher next year. . .or considerably lower.

15) Darin Gorski, LHP, Grade C+: Excellent statistics in High-A Florida State League (2.08 ERA, 140/29 K/BB) generated by superior command of average fastball and off-speed stuff, refined changeup. Needs to duplicate this in Double-A.

16) Collin McHugh, RHP, Grade C+: McHugh broke out with impressive Double-A season. Average velocity for right-hander but works lower part of the strike zone well, nice assortment of secondary pitches, makeup well-regarded. Could be a fifth starter or long reliever. 

17) Domingo Tapia, RHP, Grade C+: Earned some headlines with 99 MPH fastball but struck out just 30 in 50 innings in Appalachian League. High ceiling but needs a lot of work on his secondary pitches.

18) Akeel Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Teammate of Tapia at Kingsport, doesn't throw quite as hard, "just" in the low-to-mid-90s, but secondary stuff is in better shape. Fanned 61 in 51 innings and gave up just 30 hits, but wobbly command led to 38 walks. High ceiling.

19) Danny Muno, SS, Grade C+: Senior out of Fresno State led New York-Penn League in OBP, impressed observers with steady play and makeup. May end up as a utility player but a good one, could get beyond that if he keeps hitting at higher levels.

20) Juan Lagares, OF, Grade C+: Quick bat, improved plate discipline from abysmally awful to merely poor and hit .349/.383/.500 as a result between High-A and Double-A. This was at least partially driven by unsustainable BABIP gains, and I want to see more before buying into him.

21) Logan Verrett, RHP, Grade C+: College pitcher out of Baylor has yet to make pro debut. I saw him pitch in college and I think he has the stuff and command to be a number four starter.

OTHERS: Robert Carson, LHP; Darrell Ceciliani, OF; Albert Cordero, C; Matt den Dekker, OF; Josh Edgin, LHP; Erik Goeddel, RHP; Gilbert Gomez, OF; Chase Huchingson, LHP; Jack Leathersich, LHP; Zach Lutz, 3B; Brad Marquez, OF; Jefry Marte, 3B; Rafael Montero, RHP; Greg Peavey, RHP; Tyler Pill, RHP; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B; Armando Rodriguez, RHP; Josh Satin, UT; Chris Schwinden, RHP; Juan Urbina, LHP; Taylor Whitenton, RHP.

The Mets farm system has improved and I don't think it gets enough respect. There are some problems that have to be addressed, but they have some strengths as well. The organization is still suffering hangover from the way prospects were managed in the previous administration, but things are looking up.

The entire second half of this list is very fluid. You could make a case to rank Juan Lagares, number 20, as high as 11 or 12. Even spots five through 10 are difficult to rank. How do you weight injury guys like Mejia or Havens in comparison to high-risk-high-upside tools guys like Puello and Flores? It is all a balancing act and every analyst is going to come to a different conclusion.

I like the pitching. Harvey, Wheeler, and Familia are three hard-throwing right-handers with the ability to be staff anchors. The first two aren't far off the A- category, and Familia is a fine prospect in his own right. It may be tempting to rush Harvey and Familia to the majors sometime in 2012, but I think both will be better-positioned to help in 2013. Mejia is something of a forgotten man but I liked him a lot before he got hurt, despite the ridiculous way he was handled in '10.

There are more right-handed arms coming up behind them. Mazzoni, Fulmer, and Verrett from the 2011 draft bring a nice variety of upside and command. Tapia and Morris from Kingsport have very live arms. There are several average-stuff-inning-eater types with McHugh and Chris Schwinden possibly contributing in '12. Whitenton is interesting too but we need to see him at higher levels. Efforts of the previous administration to find talent at smaller colleges didn't bring in any stars, but you need organization arms too and sometimes those guys become real prospects, which a few have in this case.

Left-hander Juan Urbina in the C-category is highly-projectable and picked up velocity this year, although this wasn't reflected in his performance. Darin Gorski was excellent at St. Lucie but we need to see if he can avoid being the next Mark Cohoon. Edgin, Huchingson, and Leatherisch all have southpaw bullpen potential. 

Hitting is in tougher condition than the pitching. There are several very high upside players. There is some "shiny new toy" hope regarding Nimmo, but while his selection has been questioned by some, I like him. Products of the Latin American program like Puello, Flores, Valdespin (and Aderlin Rodriguez and Gilbert Gomez) have high upside but have yet to fulfill their potential, with strike zone issues being a persistent theme. Gomez had a nice run at St. Lucie but it was 75 at-bat sample and out of context with the rest of his career. I want to see more.

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Posted: 12/27/2011 3:54 PM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


I'm surprised though you guys have Flores ahead of Puello.
I think Puello is easily the better prospect there.
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Posted: 12/27/2011 4:04 PM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


Had this been the Red Sox, he'd have given B- to half of the C+s.
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson
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Posted: 12/27/2011 5:25 PM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 



acerimusdux wrote: I'm surprised though you guys have Flores ahead of Puello.
I think Puello is easily the better prospect there.
I'd personally have Puello ahead of Flores, but I was just putting up what I thought that Sickels would do.
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Posted: 12/27/2011 5:43 PM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 



DuffyDyer wrote: Had this been the Red Sox, he'd have given B- to half of the C+s.

I think a number of Red Sox guys have been over-rated the last couple of years, not necessarily by Sickels, but the current group is actually pretty solid.  They have had a lot of high draft picks lately.
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Posted: 12/28/2011 11:21 AM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


Is it me or the guys in "others" category, pretty decent prospects?  I like 5-6 of the guys.  I think MDD will have a 7-8 yr career as Endy Chavez at worst.   Ceciliani, Leathersich, Goeddel...  I'm not giving up on Marte..  Edgin is intriguing.   Not too shabby for guys that arent in the top 20.


OTHERS: Robert Carson, LHP; Darrell Ceciliani, OF; Albert Cordero, C; Matt den Dekker, OF; Josh Edgin, LHP; Erik Goeddel, RHP; Gilbert Gomez, OF; Chase Huchingson, LHP; Jack Leathersich, LHP; Zach Lutz, 3B; Brad Marquez, OF; Jefry Marte, 3B; Rafael Montero, RHP; Greg Peavey, RHP; Tyler Pill, RHP; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B; Armando Rodriguez, RHP; Josh Satin, UT; Chris Schwinden, RHP; Juan Urbina, LHP; Taylor Whitenton, RHP.

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Posted: 12/28/2011 11:52 AM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 



oct271986 wrote: Is it me or the guys in "others" category, pretty decent prospects?  I like 5-6 of the guys.  I think MDD will have a 7-8 yr career as Endy Chavez at worst.   Ceciliani, Leathersich, Goeddel...  I'm not giving up on Marte..  Edgin is intriguing.   Not too shabby for guys that arent in the top 20.


OTHERS: Robert Carson, LHP; Darrell Ceciliani, OF; Albert Cordero, C; Matt den Dekker, OF; Josh Edgin, LHP; Erik Goeddel, RHP; Gilbert Gomez, OF; Chase Huchingson, LHP; Jack Leathersich, LHP; Zach Lutz, 3B; Brad Marquez, OF; Jefry Marte, 3B; Rafael Montero, RHP; Greg Peavey, RHP; Tyler Pill, RHP; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B; Armando Rodriguez, RHP; Josh Satin, UT; Chris Schwinden, RHP; Juan Urbina, LHP; Taylor Whitenton, RHP.


Agree.  In a way, this is maybe the most notable improvement.  In past years, Sickels has complained that this system was thin and it was hard to fill out that list, the prospects at the end just weren't that good.  This year, he originally wanted to cut it to 38-39 names, and ended up listing 42 because he had guys really didn't want to cut.

There are actually several guys there you could still maybe argue for a C+ grade for.
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Posted: 12/28/2011 1:36 PM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 



acerimusdux wrote:
oct271986 wrote: Is it me or the guys in "others" category, pretty decent prospects?  I like 5-6 of the guys.  I think MDD will have a 7-8 yr career as Endy Chavez at worst.   Ceciliani, Leathersich, Goeddel...  I'm not giving up on Marte..  Edgin is intriguing.   Not too shabby for guys that arent in the top 20.


OTHERS: Robert Carson, LHP; Darrell Ceciliani, OF; Albert Cordero, C; Matt den Dekker, OF; Josh Edgin, LHP; Erik Goeddel, RHP; Gilbert Gomez, OF; Chase Huchingson, LHP; Jack Leathersich, LHP; Zach Lutz, 3B; Brad Marquez, OF; Jefry Marte, 3B; Rafael Montero, RHP; Greg Peavey, RHP; Tyler Pill, RHP; Aderlin Rodriguez, 3B; Armando Rodriguez, RHP; Josh Satin, UT; Chris Schwinden, RHP; Juan Urbina, LHP; Taylor Whitenton, RHP.


Agree.  In a way, this is maybe the most notable improvement.  In past years, Sickels has complained that this system was thin and it was hard to fill out that list, the prospects at the end just weren't that good.  This year, he originally wanted to cut it to 38-39 names, and ended up listing 42 because he had guys really didn't want to cut.

There are actually several guys there you could still maybe argue for a C+ grade for.
Just a question for some of the vets here.  How important is it to get these guys into their prospective major league roles while still in the minors?  Guys like Carson may not make the top 10, but if put in the proper roles, the can contribute to the major league team much sooner.   Puello is another.  I can see him being our 4th outfielder in 2 years and learning at the major league level.
Mets trade away reigning CY Young award winner.
Still have the best pitcher in Baseball.
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Posted: 12/28/2011 8:49 PM

Re: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


I'm surprised that a lot of you rank Wheeler ahead of Harvey even though Harvey is closer to the majors.  Could you guys elaborate?  Is Wheeler's stuff that much better than Harvey's?


Question: Which two baseball teams are an Italian's favorite?

Answer:  The A's and O's
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Posted: 12/28/2011 9:36 PM

Re: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


Seems like relievers in general are a bit under-appreciated in prospect rankings. Obviously long relievers, situational types, and 7th-inning guys are a dime a dozen in the major leagues, but 8th and 9th inning guys are pretty valuable.

 

Guys like Familia and Mejia seem to be rated strictly on their ability to become a number 2 or 3 starter, when it's entirely conceivable either could become a pretty dominating late inning reliever. I'll take an 8th or 9th inning reliever over a 4th OFer type any day.

__________________________________



"We've got 5 guys better than this?"
.....Jason Bay watching Matt Harvey throw in March 2012.

Last edited 12/28/2011 9:45 PM by Kooos

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Posted: 12/28/2011 10:07 PM

Re: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 



Kooos wrote:

Seems like relievers in general are a bit under-appreciated in prospect rankings. Obviously long relievers, situational types, and 7th-inning guys are a dime a dozen in the major leagues, but 8th and 9th inning guys are pretty valuable.

 

Guys like Familia and Mejia seem to be rated strictly on their ability to become a number 2 or 3 starter, when it's entirely conceivable either could become a pretty dominating late inning reliever. I'll take an 8th or 9th inning reliever over a 4th OFer type any day.

Can you imagine a future of Cahoon or Parnell, Mejia, and Familia for 7, 8, 9th inning roles.  Thats probably a 12 million dollar savings in payroll.
Mets trade away reigning CY Young award winner.
Still have the best pitcher in Baseball.
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Posted: 12/28/2011 10:44 PM

Re: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 


I suppose the rankings are designed to account for guys who might slide into late inning roles later on (after they fail as starters), but there seems to be a bit of a "blind spot" for guys who are simply better suited for relief.....no?

 

Take a guy like Leathersich. Admittedly, he has a pretty minuscule sample and his ceiling is probably much lower than some of the positional guys (like Kirk and Puello) , but he might actually have a better chance at achieving that ceiling?

 

 

 

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"We've got 5 guys better than this?"
.....Jason Bay watching Matt Harvey throw in March 2012.
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Posted: 12/29/2011 12:53 AM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 



DuffyDyer wrote: Had this been the Red Sox, he'd have given B- to half of the C+s.
Maybe, but Sickels doesn't seem like a Met hater.  He was a big defender of their 2011 draft when the Mets were getting unfavorable reviews (mostly from the Nimmo pick), and he's regularly saying that the Met system doesn't get enough respect.


17 & 14 = Best Duo In NY Sports
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Posted: 12/29/2011 1:03 AM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 



acesfull86 wrote:
DuffyDyer wrote: Had this been the Red Sox, he'd have given B- to half of the C+s.
Maybe, but Sickels doesn't seem like a Met hater.  He was a big defender of their 2011 draft when the Mets were getting unfavorable reviews (mostly from the Nimmo pick), and he's regularly saying that the Met system doesn't get enough respect.
yes but I said that more b/c I think he was pretty generous with some of his Red Sox prospect grades... it had less to do with his Met grading.
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson
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Posted: 1/1/2012 10:21 AM

RE: Sickel's Mets top prospect list.. 



VAMetsFan wrote: Just a question for some of the vets here.  How important is it to get these guys into their prospective major league roles while still in the minors?  Guys like Carson may not make the top 10, but if put in the proper roles, the can contribute to the major league team much sooner.   Puello is another.  I can see him being our 4th outfielder in 2 years and learning at the major league level.

 I don't think you should start placing kids into their prospective future roles until very late in their development, like AAA or AA the earliest. A pitcher like Carson will probably be moved to the pen very soon but while I disagreed with his mid-year promotion, I like the fact that he remained a starting pitcher when he reached AA.

Puello needs AB's, AB's and more AB's to develop and it would make no sense prepping him for a 4th OF role in the near future.

Think of prospects as nickel and dime backs in football. Sure they probably aren't going to get a ton of PT in a game but that doesn't mean you give them fewer reps in practice to prep for their in-game role. Prospects need to play often in the minors even if they project to be part-time/role/bench guys.

In interesting case though would be with someone like Wilmer Flores who is not a SS and will need to change positions soon (this year?). He may have benefitted from playing short as it may have developed his defensive skills but he's clearly not a SS and I'd like to see a move to 3rd or 2nd (would be great if he could actually play 2B) this spring.

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Last edited 1/1/2012 10:24 AM by Daaaarryl

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