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Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list

Posted: 7/17/2014 9:44 AM

Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 


16.  Noah Syndergaard

32.  Michael Conforto

34.  Brandon Nimmo

49.  Dominic Smith
____________________________________________
Come on Eddie, be tough out there now!
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Posted: 7/17/2014 11:44 AM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 


Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 12:01 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



DocK16 wrote: Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
That's pretty cool. Wasn't expecting Smith to make a top 50 for anyone.  To rank a First Baseman that high, you must really like his bat.  It's good to graduate players and still keep a well regarded system.  Perhaps when Syndergaard and Conforto graduate, Herrera and Rosario will make top 50s and 100s.
Mets trade away reigning CY Young award winner.
Still have the best pitcher in Baseball.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 12:24 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



VAMetsFan wrote:
DocK16 wrote: Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
That's pretty cool. Wasn't expecting Smith to make a top 50 for anyone.  To rank a First Baseman that high, you must really like his bat.  It's good to graduate players and still keep a well regarded system.  Perhaps when Syndergaard and Conforto graduate, Herrera and Rosario will make top 50s and 100s.
I wonder where he'd have those guys (and Plawecki and Matz), 51-100?

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Posted: 7/17/2014 12:33 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 


Mets have at least 7 guys who have a legitimate case for being in the top 100. Pretty impressive.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 12:34 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



NYMethuselah wrote:
VAMetsFan wrote:
DocK16 wrote: Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
That's pretty cool. Wasn't expecting Smith to make a top 50 for anyone.  To rank a First Baseman that high, you must really like his bat.  It's good to graduate players and still keep a well regarded system.  Perhaps when Syndergaard and Conforto graduate, Herrera and Rosario will make top 50s and 100s.
I wonder where he'd have those guys (and Plawecki and Matz), 51-100?
Yeah, I probably would have put in Plawecki over Smith.  I forgot about Matz entirely.  Maybe the recent run of quality LH pitchers the last couple of drafts has him devalued a bit.
Mets trade away reigning CY Young award winner.
Still have the best pitcher in Baseball.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 12:37 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



DocK16 wrote: Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
As long as they don't re2pect the system. I think they revamping of the player development system is by far the biggest accomplishment of this front office. It's not just about drafting the best talent, but getting the most out of that talent.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 12:51 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 


I think it's safe to say that KL's ranks on Conforto, Nimmo and especially Smith are all very aggressive.  While the other two probably are, I doubt that Smith is even a consensus top 100 player.


Prof Parks about 10 days ago:

Dominic Smith
(LOW A): That’s a lot of at bats without a HR. Are you surprised by this? 

Jason Parks on the Top 50: No. I didn’t go high on you this off-season for a reason, and I was curious what others saw when they decided to. You can hit and you are super young. That’s no joke. But I never saw the big power potential and you lack defensive value. Call me when you are raking in Double-A and I’ll start to pay more attention. Until then you are a first base prospect without much power, and that profile isn’t all that sexy.





I would have Noah, Plaw, Conforto, Nimmo, Matz and Herrera all as top 100 with Noah around 20ish, Plaw, Conforto and Nimmo in the 50-60 range and Matz and Herrera in the 75-100 range. Monty probably just outside 100.  Imagine had they made the Cheech and Dom picks really count?
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson

Last edited 7/17/2014 12:52 PM by DuffyDyer

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Posted: 7/17/2014 1:50 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



DocK16 wrote: Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
The development of prospects has certainly been a lot better than it was under previous regimes.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:21 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



VAMetsFan wrote:
DocK16 wrote: Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
That's pretty cool. Wasn't expecting Smith to make a top 50 for anyone.  To rank a First Baseman that high, you must really like his bat.  It's good to graduate players and still keep a well regarded system.  Perhaps when Syndergaard and Conforto graduate, Herrera and Rosario will make top 50s and 100s.
To rank a first baseman with 0 power that high, he must like a lot.... 

Really surprised. Would love to hear more from Law.... He must think he profiles with a Keith ceiling or something?
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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:29 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 


Here's what Law said about Smith:

Smith's lack of power output in low-A is partially the result of his home park, as Savannah is a terrible place for left-handed power hitters, and partially the result of a whole-field approach that has Smith hitting for average while striking out at a pretty low clip -- well above the league mean or median despite his youth. Smith does have plus raw power, but we may not see much of it until he escapes the Sally League next year, much as Nimmo's power didn't come out until he left Savannah this spring.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb...0-mlb-prospects

Goes back to not reading too much into minor league statistics.  Too many variables to account for.  Tools are much more important, and Law obviously thinks Smith has the potential to hit for power.  He's probably higher on him than most, but anyone who doesn't rate Smith in the top 100 due to a lack of HR as a 19-year-old in A probably shouldn't be in the scouting business.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:30 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



RSVandy wrote:
DocK16 wrote: Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
The development of prospects has certainly been a lot better than it was under previous regimes.
Has it? Or have we just held onto all of them whereas in the past we traded them? 

I guess you could say the Mets mishandled Pelf, Fernando, Milledge...completely bombed in the 2008 draft....and maybe were too aggressive with Gomez... 

But Niese, Murphy, Parnell, Joe Smith....if the Mets had slowed down Pelf, Fernando, Lastings, Gomez...hadn't traded for Delgado, Lo Duca, Johan, etc over the years...the system would have looked pretty darn deep in talent then too, wouldnt it have?
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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:32 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



DocK16 wrote: Here's what Law said about Smith:

Smith's lack of power output in low-A is partially the result of his home park, as Savannah is a terrible place for left-handed power hitters, and partially the result of a whole-field approach that has Smith hitting for average while striking out at a pretty low clip -- well above the league mean or median despite his youth. Smith does have plus raw power, but we may not see much of it until he escapes the Sally League next year, much as Nimmo's power didn't come out until he left Savannah this spring.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb...0-mlb-prospects

Goes back to not reading too much into minor league statistics.  Too many variables to account for.  Tools are much more important, and Law obviously thinks Smith has the potential to hit for power.  He's probably higher on him than most, but anyone who doesn't rate Smith in the top 100 due to a lack of HR as a 19-year-old in A probably shouldn't be in the scouting business.
Interesting.... good deal.... I guess I have just looked at his small stature for the position and his lack of power production and drawn an improper conclusion
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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:38 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



BelieveInMetsMagic wrote:
VAMetsFan wrote:
DocK16 wrote: Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.
That's pretty cool. Wasn't expecting Smith to make a top 50 for anyone.  To rank a First Baseman that high, you must really like his bat.  It's good to graduate players and still keep a well regarded system.  Perhaps when Syndergaard and Conforto graduate, Herrera and Rosario will make top 50s and 100s.
To rank a first baseman with 0 power that high, he must like a lot.... 

Really surprised. Would love to hear more from Law.... He must think he profiles with a Keith ceiling or something?

He thinks he profiles for more power than Keith.  Again, just because he's not demonstrating much power now doesn't mean he doesn't project to hit for power or that he never will. 

Here's a portion of Law's report going into the season:

His ceiling is an impact bat at first, a cleanup hitter with 25-30 homer power and .300-plus averages to go with outstanding defense.

This idea that Smith is a no power 1B or that we didn't maximize our pick when we selected him is based solely on flawed logic and short-sided statistical analysis (I'm not just talking about from us either... Park is clearly a prime example here).  Law is right to point out that the same things were being said about Nimmo last year, and now look at him.  Power is the last tool to develop, and our prospects always have a higher hurdle to overcome because of the extreme pitcher parks they have to contend with at the A-ball levels.

Last edited 7/17/2014 2:38 PM by DocK16

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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:42 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 





---------------------------------------------
--- DocK16 wrote:

Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.

---------------------------------------------

I don't recall reading or hearing that our system was supposed to crash after the wheeler and d'arnaud graduations. I thought it was known we had pitching deep in our by stem from top to bottom.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:44 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



BelieveInMetsMagic wrote:
DocK16 wrote: Here's what Law said about Smith:

Smith's lack of power output in low-A is partially the result of his home park, as Savannah is a terrible place for left-handed power hitters, and partially the result of a whole-field approach that has Smith hitting for average while striking out at a pretty low clip -- well above the league mean or median despite his youth. Smith does have plus raw power, but we may not see much of it until he escapes the Sally League next year, much as Nimmo's power didn't come out until he left Savannah this spring.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb...0-mlb-prospects

Goes back to not reading too much into minor league statistics.  Too many variables to account for.  Tools are much more important, and Law obviously thinks Smith has the potential to hit for power.  He's probably higher on him than most, but anyone who doesn't rate Smith in the top 100 due to a lack of HR as a 19-year-old in A probably shouldn't be in the scouting business.
Interesting.... good deal.... I guess I have just looked at his small stature for the position and his lack of power production and drawn an improper conclusion

Who knows, maybe it never develops as expected.  But he was projected to hit anywhere from 20-30 at the time he was drafted -- that was pretty much the consensus opinion -- and not much has change since.  Smith as been 19 for an entire month and he's hitting .300 in A-ball.  That's pretty impressive if you ask me, even for a first baseman.  I know this example has been worn thin, but it bears noting that Ike didn't hit a HR his first 230 AB in A- ball, and he was 21.
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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:50 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



ChrisVon1 wrote:


---------------------------------------------
--- DocK16 wrote:

Hopefully at some point everyone will come to respect our system.  Remember, it was supposed to crash with Wheeler and TDA's graduations.  Better than ever.  The Mets have it together as far as the minors are concerned.  We're at a point now where only one of our top prospects was acquired in trade.  That speaks to the good work being done in the draft and internationally.

---------------------------------------------

I don't recall reading or hearing that our system was supposed to crash after the wheeler and d'arnaud graduations. I thought it was known we had pitching deep in our by stem from top to bottom.

Several people tried to make that argument, that our farm was strong thanks to the fact that we traded away our best players, and that on the horizon we had no hitting (because Nimmo and others sucked) and middle of the road SP prospects.  There were even some arguing that it wasn't that good to begin with.  

It's the same sort of thinking that was applied to TDA before he started hitting, and Wheeler before him when he was struggling, and all the way back to David Wright when he struggled, etc.  Every slump, every doubt, gets magnified and turned into an indictment on a players ability, his wherewithal, his draft slot, and so on.

I get why it happens, but at some point logic and sanity have to prevail, right?
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Posted: 7/17/2014 2:50 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 



DocK16 wrote:
BelieveInMetsMagic wrote:
DocK16 wrote: Here's what Law said about Smith:

Smith's lack of power output in low-A is partially the result of his home park, as Savannah is a terrible place for left-handed power hitters, and partially the result of a whole-field approach that has Smith hitting for average while striking out at a pretty low clip -- well above the league mean or median despite his youth. Smith does have plus raw power, but we may not see much of it until he escapes the Sally League next year, much as Nimmo's power didn't come out until he left Savannah this spring.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb...0-mlb-prospects

Goes back to not reading too much into minor league statistics.  Too many variables to account for.  Tools are much more important, and Law obviously thinks Smith has the potential to hit for power.  He's probably higher on him than most, but anyone who doesn't rate Smith in the top 100 due to a lack of HR as a 19-year-old in A probably shouldn't be in the scouting business.
Interesting.... good deal.... I guess I have just looked at his small stature for the position and his lack of power production and drawn an improper conclusion

Who knows, maybe it never develops as expected.  But he was projected to hit anywhere from 20-30 at the time he was drafted -- that was pretty much the consensus opinion -- and not much has change since.  Smith as been 19 for an entire month and he's hitting .300 in A-ball.  That's pretty impressive if you ask me, even for a first baseman.  I know this example has been worn thin, but it bears noting that Ike didn't hit a HR his first 230 AB in A- ball, and he was 21.
True.... but Ike was 6'4 210....Smith is 6'0 185.... 

Not saying that a guy Smith's size can't have 20-30 HR power or that he won't add 20 lbs and basically be DWs size...we see that all the time.... just saying that much easier to project a big guy as having power down the road than a small guy. The small guy...you kind of need to see it to believe it...
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Posted: 7/17/2014 3:01 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 


That's fair, BIMM.  I guess for me, when a kid like Dom gets pick 11th overall and most project him to hit at least 20 HR, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt his first 2-3 years in the minors, especially knowing how brutal our A-ball stadiums are and the stadiums in those leagues in general.  I mean there's a reason why pretty much all of our hitters sputter out of the gate and almost all of our SP are relatively successful.  There's also a reason why everyone rakes in Vegas and why even our best SP have a tendency to struggle.  Park factors are huge.

Back to Smith.  At some point, he does have to demonstrate the ability to hit for power, but I don't believe that show me period begins instantly.  The reason I say that is, if it was all a "what have you done for me lately scenario" then guys like Cory Vaughn would've inaccurately been labeled top prospects and the Nimmo's of the prospect world would've been considered busts until proven otherwise.  That's why tools trump all in the minors.  Some guys just have tools that are more developed than others, which is why Law says Smith has raw plus power and not present plus power.

Last edited 7/17/2014 3:03 PM by DocK16

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Posted: 7/17/2014 3:04 PM

Re: Keith Law Midseason Top 50 - Four Mets make the list 


And I suppose had the Mets chosen DJ Peterson or Hunter Renfroe, there would be some here pining for the Mets to have drafted that prep 1Bmen from LA who has that projected power.

Every 1st round draft pick has projections of greatness but you have to figure in likelihood of reaching that projection. And just because Nimmo has progressed nicely, albeit still without the power most had hoped for (he's way more table setter than middle of the order bat now) does not mean that Dom Smith will also (mostly) realize the ceiling projected for him.  To suggest that there aren't concerns about his bat being big enough to stick at 1B seems kind of naive even if he's just 19 now.  None of which is to even mention reports that came out earlier this year of his being kind of soft-bodied and not in great shape.
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson
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