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NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph?

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Posted: 10/30/2013 12:34 PM

NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


From The One They Call "Martino" --- (no mention of an anti-Irish prejudice from the fanbase, surprisingly - regarding any of the Murphy trade talk) tongue:

This World Series -- or, as Mets fans seem to regard it, the annoying partition blocking you from the offseason you’ve long been waiting for -- will end either tonight or tomorrow, but the New York baseball reader should not expect immediate hot stove action.

The Mets are looking to trade either Ike Davis or Lucas Duda this winter and have had preliminary chats with other teams, as Jeff Wilpon indicated on Wednesday -- but according to another team source, it is too soon to know which player is more appealing to clubs, and which will ultimately be moved.

“Don’t know yet,” the source said, when asked which first baseman seemed to have more trade value.

As we have previously reported, the Mets are leaning toward choosing Duda over Davis, but remain open-minded to moving whoever brings a stronger return.

Wilpon spoke on Tuesday at a Boys and Girls Club in Garfield, N.J., and indicated that it is simply too soon to know which players will be available in trades this winter (and the Mets seem at least as interested in spending their money on existing contracts as they do in signing top free agents); sources inside the team’s organizational meetings earlier this month backed that assertion. “We just talked about how the guys we have would fit in,” said one team insider. “Didn’t get into other players.”

Wilpon also identified four incumbents that the team is “solidified on” for next year: David Wright, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee and Zack Wheeler (meaning, apparently, that the “trade Wheeler” wing of the team will stand down, for now).

That formulation omits Daniel Murphy, and brings us to a topic we promised yesterday to raise: It’s a nice development for the Mets that Eric Young Jr. did not win a Gold Glove on Tuesday night for his work in left field. The team did not need him to become further identified with that position, because of Young’s versatility, and ability to play second base, his natural position.

According to sources, the Mets have discussed at least two scenarios that would make Young the everyday second baseman in 2014: Trading Murphy, or making Murphy the first baseman. The latter is less likely, because Sandy Alderson is said to prefer power at that corner position.


It will be interested to see what Murphy’s market value turns out to be, if the Mets begin shopping him. Although his offense is more than adequate for a middle infielder, his reputation as a defender has not improved much, even as he has worked toward competence over the past few years. “He’s got to be a utility guy, a bat off the bench,” said one rival evaluator.

Others argue that Murphy’s bat justifies a regular spot in the lineup. Still, nearly seven years after he was first called up from the minor leagues, no one can agree on where to put him.

http://www.nydailynews.com/blo...-winter-world-s

"Use your head.....that's that lump 3 feet above your arse." - Jimmy Dugan

Last edited 10/30/2013 12:35 PM by Walnutz15

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Posted: 10/30/2013 1:33 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


Its amazing/scary how I can immediately recognize a Martino article without even looking at the author's name. The 'trade Wheeler" wing lol...he's been trying to drum up nonexistent clubhouse drama regarding Wheeler ever since the "race war" with Aderlin Rodriguez in spring training.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 1:50 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


With the already lack of power in this lineup, I just don't get the idea of trading Murphy and his 15 HR's at 2B for a guy who might hit 1 or 2 at 2B. As it is, you're going to get limited power in CF, C is an unknown and SS (did we get more than 2 HR's at SS?). Don't go backwards. I'd package Ike, Duda & Flores before trading Murphy. Murphy is a known, the others simply aren't at this point.

At least make a run at the FA market instead of everything having to be a trading deal where we just shuffle the chairs on the deck.

Last edited 10/30/2013 1:50 PM by EddyBarzoon

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Posted: 10/30/2013 2:12 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



EddyBarzoon wrote: With the already lack of power in this lineup, I just don't get the idea of trading Murphy and his 15 HR's at 2B for a guy who might hit 1 or 2 at 2B. As it is, you're going to get limited power in CF, C is an unknown and SS (did we get more than 2 HR's at SS?). Don't go backwards. I'd package Ike, Duda & Flores before trading Murphy. Murphy is a known, the others simply aren't at this point.

At least make a run at the FA market instead of everything having to be a trading deal where we just shuffle the chairs on the deck.
Pretty hefty assumption thinking Murphy hits 15 HR next season considering he had 13 this year and only 6 the two seasons prior. We'll be improving SS this offseason with most likely Drew or Peralta, and they'll hit around 10-15 HRs.

I don't see Murphy sustaining the type of success he had this season. He had a career high in both HR and SB, and it seems like a good time to sell high on him. We don't know how the rest of the team is going to shaped, so it's hard to say we'll lack power at this point.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 2:18 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


He's 28. Hit .286. 38 doubles. I'd like to get away from the mentality that permeates this board of "sell while he has value". If he has value, he has value here. There are so many other ways to go rather than dumping 1 of ONLY 2 guys that actually hit for this team. The other being Wright.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 2:37 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


I wouldn't mind trading Murphy at all... but expecting or counting on him to hit ~15 HR it's not really unreasonable. He's hit 12 & 13 in a season.

"Seen It All"

loyal_Jues (IG)

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Posted: 10/30/2013 2:45 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


Reality is, a Murphy type player usually does not last past 31 as a productive player, so if you can turn his current perceived value into a 25-26 year old OFer who has upside, why would you not do that deal?

Also, this club will add other pieces.

EddyBarzoon wrote:
He's 28. Hit .286. 38 doubles. I'd like to get away from the mentality that permeates this board of "sell while he has value". If he has value, he has value here. There are so many other ways to go rather than dumping 1 of ONLY 2 guys that actually hit for this team. The other being Wright.
“Every day is a new opportunity.  You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again.” - Bob Feller

Last edited 10/30/2013 2:47 PM by nevets72

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Posted: 10/30/2013 2:49 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



EddyBarzoon wrote: He's 28. Hit .286. 38 doubles. I'd like to get away from the mentality that permeates this board of "sell while he has value". If he has value, he has value here. There are so many other ways to go rather than dumping 1 of ONLY 2 guys that actually hit for this team. The other being Wright.
He's 28 with two years of control left, and he's not an extension candidate. He hit .286, but only had a .319 OBP. He had 38 doubles, but he played in 161 games. He had a career high in counting numbers this season(HR, R, SB, RBI) and with his increasing salary, it seems like a logical time to move him if he can be included in a deal to get something of value in return. 

He's a solid player, but a replaceable one with value. Any team looking for a 3B or 2B will inquire on Murphy -- with the former being his better position. I refuse to put his name with Wright because they are on very different levels. If we had Choo, that would be a guy I could put in the same discussion as Wright. Same with Beltran.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 2:52 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



Gstacks177 wrote: I wouldn't mind trading Murphy at all... but expecting or counting on him to hit ~15 HR it's not really unreasonable. He's hit 12 & 13 in a season.
Yeah, he's about a 10 HR bat on average.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 3:33 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



YoungStuna wrote:
Gstacks177 wrote: I wouldn't mind trading Murphy at all... but expecting or counting on him to hit ~15 HR it's not really unreasonable. He's hit 12 & 13 in a season.
Yeah, he's about a 10 HR bat on average.
If the Yankees don't bring back Cano, they could be an interesting trade partner.  He could go all Johnny Damon and hit 25 HRs there.
Mets trade away reigning CY Young award winner.
Still have the best pitcher in Baseball.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 5:43 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



EddyBarzoon wrote: With the already lack of power in this lineup, I just don't get the idea of trading Murphy and his 15 HR's at 2B for a guy who might hit 1 or 2 at 2B. As it is, you're going to get limited power in CF, C is an unknown and SS (did we get more than 2 HR's at SS?). Don't go backwards. I'd package Ike, Duda & Flores before trading Murphy. Murphy is a known, the others simply aren't at this point.

At least make a run at the FA market instead of everything having to be a trading deal where we just shuffle the chairs on the deck.
If the Mets do trade Murphy and decide to go with EY at 2b, it might signal a big emphasis on speed and defense up the middle, which I wholeheartedly endorse.  And maybe that the intend to get power in FA and trade.

I've not seen EY play 2b that I recall, so I'm not sure how good he is.  But, that might be the thinking, to try to get plus defenders at C, SS, 2b, and CF (Lagares and Den Dekker make that a lock) to support the young pitching as much as possible.  Peralta would look nice up the middle, too.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 7:38 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



ssclark wrote:
EddyBarzoon wrote: With the already lack of power in this lineup, I just don't get the idea of trading Murphy and his 15 HR's at 2B for a guy who might hit 1 or 2 at 2B. As it is, you're going to get limited power in CF, C is an unknown and SS (did we get more than 2 HR's at SS?). Don't go backwards. I'd package Ike, Duda & Flores before trading Murphy. Murphy is a known, the others simply aren't at this point.

At least make a run at the FA market instead of everything having to be a trading deal where we just shuffle the chairs on the deck.
If the Mets do trade Murphy and decide to go with EY at 2b, it might signal a big emphasis on speed and defense up the middle, which I wholeheartedly endorse.  And maybe that the intend to get power in FA and trade.

I've not seen EY play 2b that I recall, so I'm not sure how good he is.  But, that might be the thinking, to try to get plus defenders at C, SS, 2b, and CF (Lagares and Den Dekker make that a lock) to support the young pitching as much as possible.  Peralta would look nice up the middle, too.
Speed on the base paths and defensive speed is always good and we've seen a drop in SB numbers (2005-2008) to (2010-2013) but at the same we've also seen a dramatic drop in HR production. I don't want to omit one to have the other as I think it gets us nowhere other than where we've been (75 wins)

2005-2008, averaging 180 HR's and 160 SB's.....averaging 90 wins
2010-2013, averaging 125 HR's and 113 SB's.....averaging 76 wins

The drop offs, frankly...stink.
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Posted: 10/30/2013 10:36 PM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


It's funny......I feel like Murph should bring back something somewhat decent as part of a trade package......but I can't figure out who would want to trade for him.    There really aren't that many teams that he makes a ton of sense for.     I feel like the Rockies is a possibility (line drive hitter in Coors....yikes!).....I suppose the Padres could make sense, even though they would not really want to pay him....and I don't think I really want anything they have, frankly.     Milwaukee could make sense.....but what the heck would the Mets get back?    Doesn't feel like anything of note.   He seems like a Cardinals kind of player....but I feel like the Mets would get low-balled in any trade there.   I guess he would make sense for the Braves....but I don't see the Mets trading with the Braves.   Cubs?    I guess.....again....not sure I get back the value I'd want.    


In the AL.......he could be part of the Trumbo exchange I think could be made with the Angels.     The White Sox makes sense.....but I can't think of anyone the mets would want in return from them.   The Tigers could make sense.....not sure if they'd part with a young OFer for him.    Orioles could make sense.....again....not sure who the Mets would get back from them.   



It just feels like you get a solid enough return from Murph in his current slot compared to what you might get in exchange.    He's a fairly solid offensive 2B option.....below average defensively.    But.....if you get a couple of more bats in the lineup.....they could elevate Murph's output.      


EYJ remains kind of the odd piece of puzzle.    He really helped spark the Mets........but he can end up as bench fodder if the Mets get two upgrades at OF.  


I guess it is a source of offseason interest.
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Posted: 10/31/2013 7:23 AM

RE: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


"2005-2008, averaging 180 HR's and 160 SB's.....averaging 90 wins
2010-2013, averaging 125 HR's and 113 SB's.....averaging 76 wins"

First, I'd keep changes in league averages in mind; between those two time periods, HRs are down 14%, so had the Mets drop been the same as the NL, they would have been looking at 158 HR. Almost exactly half of the drop in HRs is just the change in HR levels in baseball.

Second, by omitting everything else, you seem to be suggesting that 55 HRs + 47 SB is at least the bulk of those 14 missing wins.

2010-2013:
Mets RPs +0.4 fWAR [+2.5 NL average]
Mets SPs +10.3 fWAR [+11.0]
Mets PPs +17.1 fWAR [+19.0]

2005-2008:
Mets RPs +2.5 fWAR [+2.0 NL average]
Mets SPs +10.0 fWAR [+10.2]
Mets PPs +25.4 fWAR [+19.0]

[edit] continuing...
2010-2013 Total +27.8 fWAR versus +32.5 for the average NL team [4.7 wins below average]
2005-2008 Total +37.9 fWAR versus +31.2 for the average NL team [6.7 wins above average]

The Mets were 14 wins worse, but their drop-off, at least so far as things fWAR captures was 11.4 wins; with four year samples, I'd assume good/bad luck is pretty evened out, maybe the difference involves some situational hitting and managerial skill and intangibles, etc?  Assuming all of those factors are fairly evenly balanced between the position players, SPs and RPs, then the 14 win drop-off is something like:

Bullpen: -3.2 wins
Starting pitchers: -0.6 wins
Position players: -10.2 wins

Honestly, I wouldn't have guessed that much weight was on the position players [and that the pitching was roughly as good], but I guess it is what it is.  Considering that the pen accounts for ~30% of the innings and that pitching might be something like 40% of the total run prevention minus defense], that the Mets were 3.2 wins worse in the pen is pretty huge I guess.

Last edited 10/31/2013 8:45 AM by erosen

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Posted: 10/31/2013 7:44 AM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



YoungStuna wrote:
Gstacks177 wrote: I wouldn't mind trading Murphy at all... but expecting or counting on him to hit ~15 HR it's not really unreasonable. He's hit 12 & 13 in a season.
Yeah, he's about a 10 HR bat on average.
He is at the stage of his career (28 yo) where power typically will increase somewhat for a hitter like Murph.  Prime power years are usually around ages 27-31 or so.  It would be surprising if he did not hit 15-20 HRs next year, especially if he is part of an improved Mets lineup.
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Posted: 10/31/2013 8:22 AM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



nevets72 wrote: Reality is, a Murphy type player usually does not last past 31 as a productive player, so if you can turn his current perceived value into a 25-26 year old OFer who has upside, why would you not do that deal?

Also, this club will add other pieces.


Okay, that is a puzzling statement.  Murphy is not one of those speed guys whose game does not typically age well (with notable exceptions, of course).  I think that Murphy is exactly the kind of guy who is typically productive well past 31 - solid fundamental pure hitter, hard-nosed, pretty athletic, and an extremely hard worker who understands the game.  Look at the baserunning component he added to his game this year - 23 out of 26 in SBs, for a guy who runs okay but is no speed merchant and never had more than 10 before.  Just a result of hard work to constantly improve, and understanding the game.  Look at how he has improved his defensive chops at 2b.  No, he isn't winning a GG there anytime, but he has turned himself into a more than adequate 2b-man through pure hard work.  And hard work is usually contagious, adding to the value that he brings to the team.  I wouldn't be surprised if OBP is the next area that he really works on improving, although in truth he really is a pretty disciplined hitter who works pitchers and sees a lot of pitches, which helps the whole lineup.  He just doesn't take many walks (yet). 

Sure, I would consider trading Murphy if the right deal came along to seriously improve the team, but I think he is a valuable player for the Mets and I wouldn't be aggressively looking to move him.
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Posted: 10/31/2013 9:01 AM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


RBF- to say Murphy is anything but a fringe player would be pushing it. He got extensive playing time simply because this club has not had a glut of plus players. Beltran was traded, Jose left, and we have David. That left 5 other positions to fill. Murphy was a beneficiary of this fact. Sure, an above average to plus player would last to 34-35-36 with his skill set, but they also produce to Murphy's level at 25-26-27, not 27-28-29. Point being, starting at 301-31-32, most players start to plateau and regress. Murphy will just as 95% of players do. Murphy regressing puts him at a below average to minus player. That is my point.
“Every day is a new opportunity.  You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again.” - Bob Feller
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Posted: 10/31/2013 9:50 AM

RE: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 


Doing a comp list in similar fashion to what I did for Duda and Trumbo...

Jose Cruz(1) 4.6/4.8/4.7/4.4/2.8
Jackie Brandt 1.7/2.1/1.4/-1.1/-0.5
Pete O'Brien 2.8/3.4/1.5/0.2/-0.1
Nate McLouth 0.1/0.6/2.5/2014/2015
Adam LaRoche 2.0/0.7/-0.3/3.4/0.6
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Posted: 10/31/2013 10:10 AM

RE: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



erosen wrote: Doing a comp list in similar fashion to what I did for Duda and Trumbo...

Jose Cruz(1) 4.6/4.8/4.7/4.4/2.8
Jackie Brandt 1.7/2.1/1.4/-1.1/-0.5
Pete O'Brien 2.8/3.4/1.5/0.2/-0.1
Nate McLouth 0.1/0.6/2.5/2014/2015
Adam LaRoche 2.0/0.7/-0.3/3.4/0.6
Cruz seems the outlier in the group.  The other 4 speak to what I was getting at.  Murphy will more than likely not continue to perform at the same level for much longer.
“Every day is a new opportunity.  You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again.” - Bob Feller
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Posted: 10/31/2013 10:35 AM

Re: NYDN: Will The Mets Trade Ike, Duda, or Murph? 



nevets72 wrote: RBF- to say Murphy is anything but a fringe player would be pushing it. He got extensive playing time simply because this club has not had a glut of plus players. Beltran was traded, Jose left, and we have David. That left 5 other positions to fill. Murphy was a beneficiary of this fact. Sure, an above average to plus player would last to 34-35-36 with his skill set, but they also produce to Murphy's level at 25-26-27, not 27-28-29. Point being, starting at 301-31-32, most players start to plateau and regress. Murphy will just as 95% of players do. Murphy regressing puts him at a below average to minus player. That is my point.
I think the problem lies in your use of the word "productive." Murphy is an average to slightly-above-average 2B. I would say he can decline a bit and be a slightly-below-average 2B and still be considered productive. When I hear "not productive," I think "roughly replacement level." But maybe you mean something else. Maybe you mean "below average." If your intent is to say that Murphy is likely to be a below average starter at age 31, then I think that's a reasonable prediction. But your use of the word "fringe" is problematic as well. He's currently a solid starting 2B and projects to be the same for the next 3 years. That's not a star, but it's hardly "fringe."
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