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Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options)

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Posted: 9/7/2013 1:24 PM

Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 


http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/...ely-foot-injury

Sounds like he could have a fractured foot.  Would definitely impact his market value this off-season if he misses the remainder of the season with yet another injury.  Even if he does, it once again makes you question the guy's ability to stay healthy.

I was very much on the sign Ellsbury bandwagon, but now I think I agree with those who say he's too risky.  I guess now it all comes down to cost and risk-reward.  Not sure how a team as risk-averse as ours can afford to take a chance on a player like that.  Reality is setting in that the trade market might be our only avenue for upgrading the OF this off-season.

Last edited 9/7/2013 1:32 PM by DocK16

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Posted: 9/7/2013 1:30 PM

Re: Ellsbury 


Who are you thinking? Other than Stanton who will cost a staggering amount I can't imagine who we could target. I don't buy that Cargo is the least bit available, by the way.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 1:42 PM

Re: Ellsbury 


I don't think we're trading for a superstar.  We don't have the depth to make that happen.  Doesn't make any sense to deal Wheeler+ for Stanton when all it does is create a massive void in the starting rotation.  Syndergaard isn't going anywhere.  Sandy pretty much said he has very little desire to trade our SP depth.  Given what just happened with Harvey, I can't say I blame him.  We need Wheeler.  We need Syndergaard.  We need Montero.  Those are the guys teams would want for any big-name player.

What's much more likely is we mirror the approach of the A's of the past couple of seasons, trading for and/or signing guys like CoCo Crisp, Josh Reddick, and Chris Young.  They aren't great, but there's significant value in just being solid, especially when you're replacing putrid.

When Sandy signed, I predicted most people would be pretty underwhelmed by most of his signings.  I suspect that's what will happen this off-season.  He will make great efforts to use the finances at his disposal to improve our depth at the major league and high minor league level, just as he's done in recent years (all those to a greater degree this off-season), but the odds of him acquiring a player everyone will get excited for is probably lower than people want it to be.

Put it this way, I'm expecting more players like Stephen Drew and Will Venable than I am Cargo or Stanton.  Not that those will be the best types of players we sign/acquire, but I definitely think that we're infinitely more likely to bring in 4-5 no frills upgrades than we are to make an actual splash the likes of which is coveted and expected by large portions of the fan base.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 1:50 PM

Re: Ellsbury 


In general I agree with you. That said i do expect them to redeploy a bunch of cash this winter and they have to spend it on somebody. With Harvey hurt, maybe a bit of cash goes to a veteran innings eater. I don't see them spending money on the bullpen at all. Maybe 1B or SS you could upgrade by spending some money? Otherwise you're back to spending money on the OF.

I think Sandy has waited for this moment since he got here. I think he's going to spend some money and yes it probably will be on several second tier guys rather than a Cano or Ellsbury. I'm ok with that if he targets guys I like.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 1:56 PM

Re: Ellsbury 


Sure, we're going to spend money.  But even solid guys cost $5-10M a piece.

Drew would likely cost $7-8M per.  Say we target Morales, that's probably $10-12M per.  Just for those two alone, we're looking at close to $20M.  Then you add a SP ($5-10M more) and relief help ($5-10M), and we're looking at $30-40M before we even account for arbitration raises.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 2:15 PM

Re: Ellsbury 


Ethier is always listed as a possible salary dump acquisition. I'm ok with the idea but only if the Dodgers are eating at least half of what he's owed. And even then I'm scared of the length of his contract.

Another 2 WAR guy who fits the same mold but who is owed less money for a shorter time is Cody Ross. Now that he's owed 2/19M I could see the DBacks move him for little or nothing in a trade. I'm expecting a frothy FA market this winter so 2/19M for a two win guy like Ross might even seem reasonable.

Could the Always frugal A's be willing to move Cespedes now that he's owed 2/21M? I know there are mixed opinions of him here but I'd love to buy low on a guy with his strength and athleticism.

Last edited 9/7/2013 2:23 PM by MookieLJL

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Posted: 9/7/2013 2:23 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 


It's a pretty challenging situation Dock. It's too bad Boras is Ellsbury's rep.......because you ow he is still going to ask for the moon in spite of the injuries. He might be more attractive in a 4 for 60-ish contract than close to 20mm.

If I were to sell you Choo at 5 for 75....... And bring Byrd back for maybe a 2 year deal in the 10-15 million dollar neighborhood.......how would that feel? It would mean EYJ could spell Choo against specific lefties......and the mets could still try options from the minors if Byrd underwhelms.


I don't think a new SP may be necessary. You are going into next season with wheeler, niese, gee, plus whomever will prob make a step forward from montero and degroom, and you could theoretically give Torres, Harang, and Dice-K chances to win a number 5 role. Not that it's exciting having those 3.......compete.......but Torres has actually been pretty solid.


From there.......you could prob bring most of the current bullpen guys back.......then use the FF $$$$ on somebody that is hopefully more useful.

Then they can figure out how they want to deal with 1b and SS.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 2:42 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 



JeffHostetlerFan wrote: It's a pretty challenging situation Dock. It's too bad Boras is Ellsbury's rep.......because you ow he is still going to ask for the moon in spite of the injuries. He might be more attractive in a 4 for 60-ish contract than close to 20mm.

If I were to sell you Choo at 5 for 75....... And bring Byrd back for maybe a 2 year deal in the 10-15 million dollar neighborhood.......how would that feel? It would mean EYJ could spell Choo against specific lefties......and the mets could still try options from the minors if Byrd underwhelms.


I don't think a new SP may be necessary. You are going into next season with wheeler, niese, gee, plus whomever will prob make a step forward from montero and degroom, and you could theoretically give Torres, Harang, and Dice-K chances to win a number 5 role. Not that it's exciting having those 3.......compete.......but Torres has actually been pretty solid.


From there.......you could prob bring most of the current bullpen guys back.......then use the FF $$$$ on somebody that is hopefully more useful.

Then they can figure out how they want to deal with 1b and SS.

Nauseous. biggrin

I want nothing to do with Byrd, especially at that price.  Choo you could probably sell me on up to a point.

I also think adding a dependable SP is an absolute must.  We can't go into 2014 with the only two relatively dependable veteran presences in the rotation being Niese and Gee.  I'm fine with leaving the 5th spot open for Montero, but he's no sure thing and there will undoubtably be injuries along the way.  A stop-gap measure is needed imo because after Syndergaard, Montero, and DeGrom it gets really thin at the upper levels.  

I don't think we want to go into the season with Wheeler, Syndergaard, Montero, and DeGrom manning three of five spots in the rotation, especially when every one of them, short of maybe Wheeler, will be on strict innings limits.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 2:52 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 



JeffHostetlerFan wrote: It's a pretty challenging situation Dock. It's too bad Boras is Ellsbury's rep.......because you ow he is still going to ask for the moon in spite of the injuries. He might be more attractive in a 4 for 60-ish contract than close to 20mm.

If I were to sell you Choo at 5 for 75....... And bring Byrd back for maybe a 2 year deal in the 10-15 million dollar neighborhood.......how would that feel? It would mean EYJ could spell Choo against specific lefties......and the mets could still try options from the minors if Byrd underwhelms.


I don't think a new SP may be necessary. You are going into next season with wheeler, niese, gee, plus whomever will prob make a step forward from montero and degroom, and you could theoretically give Torres, Harang, and Dice-K chances to win a number 5 role. Not that it's exciting having those 3.......compete.......but Torres has actually been pretty solid.


From there.......you could prob bring most of the current bullpen guys back.......then use the FF $$$$ on somebody that is hopefully more useful.

Then they can figure out how they want to deal with 1b and SS.

Isn't Boras repping Choo as well?

Last edited 9/7/2013 2:53 PM by EddyBarzoon

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Posted: 9/7/2013 3:03 PM

Re: Ellsbury 



DocK16 wrote: 

When Sandy signed, I predicted most people would be pretty underwhelmed by most of his signings.  I suspect that's what will happen this off-season. 
David DeJesus
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Posted: 9/7/2013 3:23 PM

Re: Ellsbury 



RSVandy wrote:
DocK16 wrote: 

When Sandy signed, I predicted most people would be pretty underwhelmed by most of his signings.  I suspect that's what will happen this off-season. 
David DeJesus
DeJesus has an option for next year, that I'm guessing the Rays will pick up.

And Drew signed a 1yr deal this year for $10M, I think. Doubt he gets less than that after playing so well. So, you'd be looking at 2yr/$24M for him, maybe.

Last edited 9/7/2013 3:25 PM by andwoo

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Posted: 9/7/2013 3:47 PM

Re: Ellsbury 



RSVandy wrote:
DocK16 wrote: 

When Sandy signed, I predicted most people would be pretty underwhelmed by most of his signings.  I suspect that's what will happen this off-season. 
David DeJesus

34 years old.. cant hit for power or run.  Hitting 250/329/391 and 2011 and 2012 were pretty similar....  Cant we move on from this guy due to the presence of Lagares and MDD?  We already have guys who cant hit much but can play defense.

This team needs bats.  Year of year after of no offense.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 3:51 PM

Re: Ellsbury 



oct271986 wrote:
RSVandy wrote:
DocK16 wrote: 

When Sandy signed, I predicted most people would be pretty underwhelmed by most of his signings.  I suspect that's what will happen this off-season. 
David DeJesus

34 years old.. cant hit for power or run.  Hitting 250/329/391 and 2011 and 2012 were pretty similar....  Cant we move on from this guy due to the presence of Lagares and MDD?  We already have guys who cant hit much but can play defense.

This team needs bats.  Year of year after of no offense.
I don't want him, but I feel like he's destined to be a Met. Alderson will sign him if the Rays don't go with his option.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 3:52 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 


Nelson Cruz apparently wanted 4 for 56 before the suspension.  

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/w...ruz-last-winter

I'd take a chance on him at 2/20.  That's 2 mil more a year than Melky got.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 4:28 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 


The problem we have is that we realistically only have 3rd base, catcher, and Center Field locked up for next year.  2nd Base might be in good shape, but from there...we mjight be breaking in 5 new starters.

We cant possibly hope to sign 5 new guys for those positions...rather, we might have to hope for one signing, and a trade, and then hope that a Satin/Duda platoon might be doable at first.

The dreaded sig of doom has chosen future hall of famer Jason Heyward as its target.

May the baseball gods have mercy on your soul!

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Posted: 9/7/2013 4:52 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 


Matt Kemp is probably out the rest of the year.  Would you take on his contract?

I would, personally.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 4:53 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 



headscalper wrote:

The problem we have is that we realistically only have 3rd base, catcher, and Center Field locked up for next year.  2nd Base might be in good shape, but from there...we mjight be breaking in 5 new starters.

We cant possibly hope to sign 5 new guys for those positions...rather, we might have to hope for one signing, and a trade, and then hope that a Satin/Duda platoon might be doable at first.

I'm not sure CF is locked up at all, or at least I don't think should be.  If next yr is another open tryout yr where we are ok with 75 wins, then sure, run Lagares out there and see if can find another 80 OPS pts.

But, if you want to win or at least compete for a playoff spot, Lagares shouldn't be given a spot, unless there are very significant upgrades in several other spots.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 4:56 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 



---------------------------------------------
--- DocK16 wrote:


JeffHostetlerFan wrote: It's a pretty challenging situation Dock. It's too bad Boras is Ellsbury's rep.......because you ow he is still going to ask for the moon in spite of the injuries. He might be more attractive in a 4 for 60-ish contract than close to 20mm.

If I were to sell you Choo at 5 for 75....... And bring Byrd back for maybe a 2 year deal in the 10-15 million dollar neighborhood.......how would that feel? It would mean EYJ could spell Choo against specific lefties......and the mets could still try options from the minors if Byrd underwhelms.


I don't think a new SP may be necessary. You are going into next season with wheeler, niese, gee, plus whomever will prob make a step forward from montero and degroom, and you could theoretically give Torres, Harang, and Dice-K chances to win a number 5 role. Not that it's exciting having those 3.......compete.......but Torres has actually been pretty solid.


From there.......you could prob bring most of the current bullpen guys back.......then use the FF $$$$ on somebody that is hopefully more useful.

Then they can figure out how they want to deal with 1b and SS.

Nauseous. biggrin

I want nothing to do with Byrd, especially at that price.  Choo you could probably sell me on up to a point.

I also think adding a dependable SP is an absolute must.  We can't go into 2014 with the only two relatively dependable veteran presences in the rotation being Niese and Gee.  I'm fine with leaving the 5th spot open for Montero, but he's no sure thing and there will undoubtably be injuries along the way.  A stop-gap measure is needed imo because after Syndergaard, Montero, and DeGrom it gets really thin at the upper levels.  

I don't think we want to go into the season with Wheeler, Syndergaard, Montero, and DeGrom manning three of five spots in the rotation, especially when every one of them, short of maybe Wheeler, will be on strict innings limits.

---------------------------------------------

Haha........figured I would throw it out There. I don't think you would have more than 2 of the young guys you listed as being regular rotation guys. It seems like Montero is the closest. The other 3 are probably September callus or 26th man doubleheader guys.

I don't know.........how much do you really want to spend on a vet pitcher that has one year that the mets really want out of him. You gotta figure SA will go reclamation route with the 5 guy in the rotation.

Besides......the mets would likely be better off reinvesting in the offense for 2014, anyway (and beyond).


The unfortunate reality is........most of the FAs carry baggage......and will be costly. It's a matter of which guy you feel the most comfortable with at what is probably going to be a crappy price. I think Cruz and Ellsbury are the only real 4-5 year 'glue' guys that are out there. Everyone else I am not sure i would invest in beyond 3 years.

Except Abreu..........and that's the ultimate wild card........but may OT be quite as expensive.

Last edited 9/7/2013 4:57 PM by JeffHostetlerFan

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Posted: 9/7/2013 5:01 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 



oct271986 wrote:
headscalper wrote:

The problem we have is that we realistically only have 3rd base, catcher, and Center Field locked up for next year.  2nd Base might be in good shape, but from there...we mjight be breaking in 5 new starters.

We cant possibly hope to sign 5 new guys for those positions...rather, we might have to hope for one signing, and a trade, and then hope that a Satin/Duda platoon might be doable at first.

I'm not sure CF is locked up at all, or at least I don't think should be.  If next yr is another open tryout yr where we are ok with 75 wins, then sure, run Lagares out there and see if can find another 80 OPS pts.

But, if you want to win or at least compete for a playoff spot, Lagares shouldn't be given a spot, unless there are very significant upgrades in several other spots.

Yeah, I wouldn't go far as to say we're set with Lagares.  There are serious question marks about his bat.  That said, he's the only returning OFer we'll have who has provided above average (or even average) overall value.  We can't possibly revamp an entire OF in one off-season, so if anyone sticks it's Lagares.  

I have no problem with that, but I completely agree that given his offensive short-comings, upgrades will have to be made elsewhere to offset his bat.
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Posted: 9/7/2013 8:24 PM

Re: Ellsbury (Potential 2014 OF Options) 


I'd give Beltran two years 28 million and swing a trade for Joc Pederson. Dodgers have a million outfielders and Pederson's profile fits what Sandy wants. Maybe resign Byrd for a year to hold the fort till he's ready.
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