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Whom to trade this offseason?

Posted: 9/6/2013 9:18 AM

Whom to trade this offseason? 


There has been much discussion about acquiring a big bat or two.  Some feel the free agent market will not be the route to go because of its lack of power bats, so the trade route is being explored.  My question is who should the Mets be willing to give up to acquire that young big bat who would be under team control for many years.  I would love to see the Mets acquire a Wil Myer or Oscar Tavares type prospect.  But who do you give up?

Are you willing to trade Wheeler?  What about Montero?  What about Syndergaard?
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Posted: 9/6/2013 9:33 AM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


I don't think they will or should trade any arms. I am of he philosophy, if you have 3 top pitching prospects you have one major league pitcher in the future. Keep the arms.

Tradable assets: Murphy, Davis, Tejada, Flores, Satin, Legares, Den Dekker.

Not a lot there.

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--- omnimetfan wrote:

There has been much discussion about acquiring a big bat or two.  Some feel the free agent market will not be the route to go because of its lack of power bats, so the trade route is being explored.  My question is who should the Mets be willing to give up to acquire that young big bat who would be under team control for many years.  I would love to see the Mets acquire a Wil Myer or Oscar Tavares type prospect.  But who do you give up?

Are you willing to trade Wheeler?  What about Montero?  What about Syndergaard?

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“Every day is a new opportunity.  You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again.” - Bob Feller
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Posted: 9/6/2013 10:37 AM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


Not sure this is the moment where the Mets will be trading the pitchers of the future.    There is a small universe of guys whom would have to come back in trades for any of these pitchers to be even considered.    That would be in the Stanton, CarGo, Tulowitski, Miggy C, or as mentioned in another thread, Votto :-), neighborhood.    None of which are readily available.......although CarGo could be the most 'affordable' and perhaps attainable.     


Honestly......I don't think there will be big trades from the Mets this offseason.    I think the FA market will generate more news for the team.    I think that's where they could make some significant upgrades.    I think the trading may occur after the FA signings are locked in.    And that would be to shuffle in/out the excess and perhaps find a future arm in return or some kind of future positional player that's muddling in single A.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 11:12 AM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


I don't want the Mets to trade Wright or any of our current 5 SP. I would only move any of the top ten prospects for equivalent high upside prospects but I wouldnt be looking specifically to trade any of them.  I sort of cringe when I think of making prospect for prospect trades becuase I have an attachment to ours. I'd trade Ike and Duda just to be done with them.

My preference this winter, given the payroll room, is to acquire guys with just money thru FA.  Hopefully we have a protected draft pick so at worst we'd lose a second round pick if we sign a QO guy.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 11:15 AM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


Nobody is untouchable, first of all.
Second, it all depends on what you get back in return.

I think there will be some big trades, and I do not think the Mets will make a big splash in the FA market.

If the right deal came along, I would part with Wheeler. Same for Syndergaard. But it is unlikely the Mets could pull off a trade that will get enough in return for one of these pitchers.

Despite the injuries, the Mets have a plethora of pitching, mostly at the AA and A ball levels. But those are tradeable commodities as well.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 11:32 AM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


We're all willing to trade a bunch of our flawed players, but all we'd get back for them is flawed players.  We're not getting anything exciting back for Duda, Davis, Murphy, Flores, Valdespin, Den Dekker, Tejada, etc.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 11:41 AM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 



GeorgeFoster wrote: We're all willing to trade a bunch of our flawed players, but all we'd get back for them is flawed players.  We're not getting anything exciting back for Duda, Davis, Murphy, Flores, Valdespin, Den Dekker, Tejada, etc.

Which is precisely the point of this thread.  If you want the Mets to obtrain that young bit bat under team control (like a Wil Myers) who are you willing to part with?
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Posted: 9/6/2013 11:46 AM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


I wouldn't trade any of the young pitching unless I could rip someone off. There's not much else really valuable in the system, so I'd look at free agents, either going big (with the likes of Ellsbury, Choo, and Abreu), or signing guys on 1-to-3-year deals, basically added 3 or 4 average bats to make the lineup average. Pittsburgh has shown that you can win with great pitching, good defense, and a decent lineup.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 12:00 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 



throughthewickets wrote: I wouldn't trade any of the young pitching unless I could rip someone off. There's not much else really valuable in the system, so I'd look at free agents, either going big (with the likes of Ellsbury, Choo, and Abreu), or signing guys on 1-to-3-year deals, basically added 3 or 4 average bats to make the lineup average. Pittsburgh has shown that you can win with great pitching, good defense, and a decent lineup.
THere is the problem.  You said "going big..."  Not one name on that list is going big in my opinion.  Ellsbury has a career 108 OPS+ and is on the wrong side of 30, Choo is 31 and has a negative WAR defensively, and Abreu has mixed scouting reports.  Many feel his bat won't translate to MLB.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 2:22 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


Ellsbury's averaged over 5 WAR per year for the past 3 years, Choo has a negative defensive WAR because he's miscast as a CF (he wouldn't play that here), and Abreu is possibly the best offensive player to come out of Cuba ever.

I would trust my scouts on Abreu. If they say his bat won't translate to MLB, then I'd stay away. If they like him, then I'd get him. Unlike some, I'm find with an Ike/Satin(or Flores) platoon at 1B in 2014. I'd also look at Guerrero, the Cuban SS.

If Choo is really expensive, I don't want him. I'm not signing him for 5/75 and giving up a first round pick. But if that pick is protected or it's already given up to sign Ellsbury, I'm fine giving up a 2nd round pick and paying something like 3/45 or 4/56.

For trades, I'd much rather pick up someone's salary dump than try to pry a guy away with prospects. But if you can rip a team off, you rip them off. I'd trade Syndergod for Trout, but that's not happening.

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Posted: 9/6/2013 3:23 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


I don't get the fascination with Choo.  He'll be 32 next year (the very end of his prime) and I just don't see how his game translates to citifield.  The guy can walk with the best of them though, and that's why I think Sandy ends up signing him to a 4/60 or 5/75 deal.. He'll be this regimes Jason Bay, I'm convinced of it. 

And he's a bad defensive centerfielder, which would make him a mediocre defensive corner outfielder?  Does he WAR get that much better once he moves to less a valuable position?  Not to mention his range will decline with age no matter which position he plays.

I would sign Ellsbury if I had to sign one of the 'big' free agents.  This just screams of Holliday vs. Bay to me.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 3:31 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 




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--- metfansrule wrote:

I don't get the fascination with Choo.  He'll be 32 next year (the very end of his prime) and I just don't see how his game translates to citifield.  The guy can walk with the best of them though, and that's why I think Sandy ends up signing him to a 4/60 or 5/75 deal.. He'll be this regimes Jason Bay, I'm convinced of it. 

And he's a bad defensive centerfielder, which would make him a mediocre defensive corner outfielder?  Does he WAR get that much better once he moves to less a valuable position?  Not to mention his range will decline with age no matter which position he plays.

I would sign Ellsbury if I had to sign one of the 'big' free agents.  This just screams of Holliday vs. Bay to me.

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Agreed. Choo is having a career year in his contract year in a good lineup and hitters park. I'd be very wary of him with any kind of long term deal even moved back to RF.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 3:46 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 



metfansrule wrote: I don't get the fascination with Choo.  He'll be 32 next year (the very end of his prime) and I just don't see how his game translates to citifield.  The guy can walk with the best of them though, and that's why I think Sandy ends up signing him to a 4/60 or 5/75 deal.. He'll be this regimes Jason Bay, I'm convinced of it.
I'm not saying to break the bank on Choo but he is an extremely good offensive player. Over his last 3003 PA (2009 thru today) he has put up a .390 OBP, .851 OPS and 135 OPS+.  Other than Wright who has put up an .853 OPS since 2009 (133 OPS+) we have nobody even close to as good as Choo.

In internet debating I have heard of a rule (the "Hitler rule", I believe) that deems any debate to be over the moment anyone makes a comparison of someone else to Hitler; The person who invokes Hitler is deemed to be the loser of the debate.  I hereby propose a "Jason Bay rule" for any discussions involving potential FAs.  The outcome the Mets got with Jason Bay was so bad that it isn't fair to compare any potential FA to Bay. It was easy to argue that Bay was being overpaid by the Mets when the contract was signed but it would have been silly to predict that he would be anywhere near as bad as he was for the Mets. It was simply not a foreseeable outcome. Just like comparing someone to Hitler is generally a crazy exaggeration, comparing a potential FA to Bay is similarly crazy.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 4:00 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 



omnimetfan wrote:

Are you willing to trade Wheeler?  What about Montero?  What about Syndergaard?
No, maybe, and no. TOR pitching is so hard to find. Having 3 potential aces is a rare position to be in.

Montero would have to bring back an everyday corner OF or MIF, and I don't think his trade value is fully appreciated yet.
_______________________________________________________________________

"The Mets have shown me more ways to lose than I even knew existed."
-Casey Stengel
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Posted: 9/6/2013 4:04 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


An 8, a 1, and a 5. Averages 5, fine. But which one will we get?

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--- throughthewickets wrote:

Ellsbury's averaged over 5 WAR per year for the past 3 years, Choo has a negative defensive WAR because he's miscast as a CF (he wouldn't play that here), and Abreu is possibly the best offensive player to come out of Cuba ever.
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“Every day is a new opportunity.  You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again.” - Bob Feller
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Posted: 9/6/2013 4:21 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


I hereby second the "Jason Bay rule."

I wouldn't break the bank on Choo either, but he is a strong offensive player. He would make the Mets' lineup better. Using the past 3 years of data, he projects to be worth about 3 WAR next year, accounting for aging, that would be 3/2.5/2 over three years, or somewhere between $38M and $45M of value over those seasons. So 3/45 seems reasonable. Extending the contract beyond that is where it starts to hurt, so something like 4/54 is probably "okay." 5/60 would be okay as well.

If we use 5 years of data, he looks better, so if he goes for something like 4/60 or 5/70, that wouldn't be absolutely crazy, but I'd probably let him go to another team in that scenario.

Regardless, Jason Bay produced approximately zero value the 4 years on his contract. That's an insane outlier which was the result of a confluence of circumstances. You should never, ever predict someone to have a Jason Bay outcome. That would be statistical negligence.

Furthermore, the Jason Bay contract would have had negligible effect on a team like the Yankees or 2012-2015 Dodgers. In other words, it was so bad because it coincided with a huge rash of other injuries, inefficient contracts, ineffective talent development, and the Madoff mess. Well-run teams in major markets can spend themselves out of oblivion. But the Mets lacked the resources to do that.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 5:22 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 



throughthewickets wrote: I hereby second the "Jason Bay rule."

I wouldn't break the bank on Choo either, but he is a strong offensive player. He would make the Mets' lineup better. Using the past 3 years of data, he projects to be worth about 3 WAR next year, accounting for aging, that would be 3/2.5/2 over three years, or somewhere between $38M and $45M of value over those seasons. So 3/45 seems reasonable. Extending the contract beyond that is where it starts to hurt, so something like 4/54 is probably "okay." 5/60 would be okay as well.

If we use 5 years of data, he looks better, so if he goes for something like 4/60 or 5/70, that wouldn't be absolutely crazy, but I'd probably let him go to another team in that scenario.

Regardless, Jason Bay produced approximately zero value the 4 years on his contract. That's an insane outlier which was the result of a confluence of circumstances. You should never, ever predict someone to have a Jason Bay outcome. That would be statistical negligence.

Furthermore, the Jason Bay contract would have had negligible effect on a team like the Yankees or 2012-2015 Dodgers. In other words, it was so bad because it coincided with a huge rash of other injuries, inefficient contracts, ineffective talent development, and the Madoff mess. Well-run teams in major markets can spend themselves out of oblivion. But the Mets lacked the resources to do that.
No, I'm predicting the Mets to be cheap and sign Choo (Bay) over the clearly better player Ellsbury (Holliday).  Regardless of results, this was always the wrong choice. 

And as I said, I don't believe his numbers will translate well at all to Citifield.  I think his power declines, his speed will decline with age (obviously) and the only thing left standing will be his OBP, which I don't think is that valuable when a team has no one to drive him in. And if you think he's signing for only 3 yrs off of probably his best year, you're crazy.  What'd Jason Werth sign for off of a career year in a hitters park in a great lineup?  I think he'll get around that.  And it'll be a bad contract.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 6:23 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


Jayson Werth is a terrible comp. He was coming off of 3 seasons of 4.9, 4.8, and 4.9 WAR. If that's not consistency, I don't know what is. Also, he's been widely regarded to have been overpaid, beginning the day the contract was reported.

I agree that there's a strong chance Choo will be overpaid in FA this year. He should get about what Bourn got last year, and that would be fine. I see Choo as part of the solution, not the whole solution. If combined with two other offensive upgrades, he could contribute to a much stronger offense. On his own, yeah, the Mets' LOB% might just increase.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 6:26 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 



MookieLJL wrote:
metfansrule wrote: I don't get the fascination with Choo.  He'll be 32 next year (the very end of his prime) and I just don't see how his game translates to citifield.  The guy can walk with the best of them though, and that's why I think Sandy ends up signing him to a 4/60 or 5/75 deal.. He'll be this regimes Jason Bay, I'm convinced of it.
I'm not saying to break the bank on Choo but he is an extremely good offensive player. Over his last 3003 PA (2009 thru today) he has put up a .390 OBP, .851 OPS and 135 OPS+.  Other than Wright who has put up an .853 OPS since 2009 (133 OPS+) we have nobody even close to as good as Choo.

In internet debating I have heard of a rule (the "Hitler rule", I believe) that deems any debate to be over the moment anyone makes a comparison of someone else to Hitler; The person who invokes Hitler is deemed to be the loser of the debate.  I hereby propose a "Jason Bay rule" for any discussions involving potential FAs.  The outcome the Mets got with Jason Bay was so bad that it isn't fair to compare any potential FA to Bay. It was easy to argue that Bay was being overpaid by the Mets when the contract was signed but it would have been silly to predict that he would be anywhere near as bad as he was for the Mets. It was simply not a foreseeable outcome. Just like comparing someone to Hitler is generally a crazy exaggeration, comparing a potential FA to Bay is similarly crazy.
+1 on the Jason Bay rule...good call Mookie.
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Posted: 9/6/2013 6:56 PM

Re: Whom to trade this offseason? 


Before the Harvey news, I was willing to trade Montero or possibly Wheeler in the right deal. Without Harvey, I'm not trading any pitcher. Let the Mets spend some money to get some FAs in here. Obviously I would not break the bank on either Choo or Elsbury. If their agents are unreasonable, move on. There ARE options, though they may be costly in other ways. What about approaching the Rockies about Tulo? I'm thinking that monster contract is enough of an impediment that something like Verrett+Walters+Flores might get that done? Tulo + Beltran would be a good offseason. I'm thinking the "payroll flexibility" Mets would pass on Tulo or a Reyes re-visit though.
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