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Three Up, Three Down in 2013

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Posted: 2/23/2013 12:10 PM

Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


On the rise:

1)  Ike Davis:  I'm going to double-down on last year's all-star prediction and say he makes it in 2013.  Injuries and illness are not the issue they were this time last year for him.  I think he finally puts together a full year with very nice numbers.
Prediction -- .270/.355/.515, 30-35 HR, 3.0-4.0 fWAR

2) Greg Burke:  A 30 year old reliever with a cup of coffee in 2009 who recently overhauled his delivery?  Yeah, that guy.  The way the Mets pounced on him early makes me feel that they see real potential in him.  I think he becomes a steady, reliable BP arm, one of the great stories/surprises of the season.
Prediction -- 65-70 IP, 7.25 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 2.75-3.25 ERA

3) Mike Baxter:  The OF is a mess and anyone who shows the slightest bit of production is going to assure himself regular playing time.  Baxter is too old to be a "prospect," but I like his approach at the plate, and I think he's a solid enough fielder.  He'll win the RF job and don't be surprised if his OBP earns him the #1 spot in the lineup.  David DeJesus-like production.
Prediction -- .270/.360/.410, 40-45 XBH, 2.5-3.0 fWAR

Heading in the wrong direction:

1) Johan Santana: It may just be precaution, but I just get a bad vibe with the way the Mets are handling Santana this off-season.  Already his Opening Day start may be in jeopardy.  It's likely the end of the line for Santana in NY and I think he goes out with a whimper
Prediction -- 130-140 IP, 7.0 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 4.00-4.25 ERA

2)  Lucas Duda:  His bat will rebound a bit, but Duda is going to field his way out of being a regular.  I think the Mets will make the determination that he is not an every day OF'er and he'll be moved either by the deadline or next off-season to a team that can use him as a DH/1B.
Prediction -- .250/.330/.425, 20 HR, 0.7-1.2 fWAR

3) Ruben Tejada:  It's not so much that I think he's going to have a poor year, but I think Tejada is going to reveal how limited his upside is.  I really don't see significant improvement in any area.  A nice piece to have around while he's cheap, but I believe he only remains a Met because there is greater urgency to upgrade at other positions.
Prediction -- .275/.330/.345, 30 XBH, 1.7-2.2 fWAR


17 & 14 = Best Duo In NY Sports

Last edited 2/23/2013 12:11 PM by acesfull86

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Posted: 2/23/2013 12:59 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


RT disagrees with that assessment.
"Friend Romans & Country Men Lend Me an Ear"  Hannibal Lecture in Florence.  Recipe from the Grand Dictionaire de Cuisine, (1873), Alexandre Dumas.
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Posted: 2/23/2013 12:59 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


interesting list.  Regarding Johan, I'm reminded of the team pushing Beltran back in ST2011 and everyone being skeptical about his health bc of it.  More importantly, Johan wanting to pitch in the WBC shows at least that he believes that he can be effective. 

All that said, I think his results will be similar to what you've projected but it'll all depend on whether he starts strongly, in which case the Mets stand a decent chance on being able to move him for something... or if he's just inconsistent all along... that would make it more unlikely he'll be moved I suppose.

Another guy I don't have high expectations for is Marcum.  Good thing is that w/o having made a big investment in him, he's easy enough to replace (for Wheeler) when the time comes.  

On the other side of the ledger, I can really see Murphy having a big year.  He seems to be at the right career stage where he can put everything together... for him.  I would call that .300/.350/.420 35 doubles and 10 HRs and steadier defense and 2.5 - 3.0 fWAR.
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson
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Posted: 2/23/2013 8:54 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


Anyone else have their predictions for this season? I was kind of hoping this would be the major league version of the thread we have on the MiL board.


17 & 14 = Best Duo In NY Sports
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Posted: 2/23/2013 9:03 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


There were some in another thread, but I don't remember which one.  I made three predictions but I do not remember them all.  One was that D'Arnaud would have a good spring and crack the Opening Day lineup.  But I will make some more predictions

1.  Parnell will be the closer come Opening Day and will not relinquish that role.

2. Ike Davis will have a big year, with an OPS around 900.

3. LaTroy Hawkins is released before June 1st if he makes the Mets at all.
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Posted: 2/23/2013 11:51 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 



acesfull86 wrote: Anyone else have their predictions for this season?

1) Hawkins. I think he'll have a great season for the Mets. So will Atchinson for that matter. I like Alderson's patchwork bullpen TBH.

2) Bobby Parnell. He becomes an elite RP in 2013.

3) David Wright will have 6+ WAR again, wouldn't be shocked if he has 7.5-8. He's a leading MVP candidate and the best position in Met history. Enough said. Stitch the goddamn "C" on his jersey.

Honorable Mention: Matt Harvey gets only better IMO

-------------------------------


1. Lucas Duda. Dude is barely a Major League baseball player.

2. Our outfield. Probably will be the worst baseball has seen in 15 years.

3. Manager/Pitching coach combination. Another season of donk lineups and Dan Warthen collecting dust.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 12:10 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


On the Rise..

1 Shawn Marcum-  He will outpitch Dickey.

2 Bobby Parnell-  Makes the All Star team as he holds closer job all yr.

3 Ike Davis/Matt Harvey-  2 legit young stars take the next step.

4 Matt den Dekker-  1.000 in OPS in Vegas and gets chance to play everyday in Citi by June.

Sinking..

1- Mike Baxter-   Cut by the ASB

2 Johan Santana-  110 IP  5 ERA.. Its over.

3 Colin McHefner--  These 2 will get lots of chances with injuries to the rotation and they will come up empty.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 12:30 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


Ike up.
Murphy up.
Valdespin up. Do we really have include Harvey/Wheeler
Mejia up
Cowgill up

Hicks down
McHugh down
Hefner down
Latroy down
Feliciano down
"Friend Romans & Country Men Lend Me an Ear"  Hannibal Lecture in Florence.  Recipe from the Grand Dictionaire de Cuisine, (1873), Alexandre Dumas.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 1:00 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


3 UP
Marcum - Performs well and is borderline all-star.  Good chance he is dealt at deadline.
Ike - .260+ BA along with 30+ HRs and good defense at 1B.  Qualifies him as an up.
Cowgill - Nice surprise.  Does well, and becomes a fan favorite.

3 DOWN
Nieuwenhuis - Doesn't make enough contact to be a full-time starter.  Very inconsistent, Mets come to terms that he is no more than a 4th/5th OFer.  Defense will be average at best for CF.
Duda - Poor defense continues.  I'm a little concerned about bat speed and power being there coming off the wrist surgery, but maybe we see strides by mid-season as he regains strength.  Mets probably have no other choice but to ride him out and hope for a hot streak leading to trade deadline or to end season, increasing his trade value.
Tejada - He's ok.  But that's it...just ok.  Depending on your hope/expectations going in, this may be a down or maybe just stays the same.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 1:23 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 



oct271986 wrote: On the Rise..

1 Shawn Marcum-  He will outpitch Dickey.

2 Bobby Parnell-  Makes the All Star team as he holds closer job all yr.

3 Ike Davis/Matt Harvey-  2 legit young stars take the next step.

4 Matt den Dekker-  1.000 in OPS in Vegas and gets chance to play everyday in Citi by June.

Sinking..

1- Mike Baxter-   Cut by the ASB

2 Johan Santana-  110 IP  5 ERA.. Its over.

3 Colin McHefner--  These 2 will get lots of chances with injuries to the rotation and they will come up empty.

This is my favorite so far.  I do however think that McHugh could have a 2nd life in the pen,
Mets trade away reigning CY Young award winner.
Still have the best pitcher in Baseball.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 1:26 PM

RE: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 



oct271986 wrote: On the Rise..

4 Matt den Dekker-  1.000 in OPS in Vegas and gets chance to play everyday in Citi by June.


I would love to see this happen, but I am just not that optimistic.  Yes, a 1.000 OPS in Vegas is not all that unusual, but still.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 1:42 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


3 Up
1. Ike Davis - he will have a solid year. 260-35-95
2. David Wright - I do not mean from a production standpoint, but I see him taking that full on leadership role to a new level this season. This is completely his team. He has the contract and stability, now he will take hold of the team 100%.
3. Sandy Alderson - the first stage of his plan is complete. I like how this team is positioned. Granted, it was not as we would have ideally wanted as fans, but this team can ( and will) make significant moves the next couple of years AND the organization has terrific promise in the farm, especially pitching. I think we see so spectacular strides in the organization this season.

3 Down
1. Terry Collins - I actually really like him, but he seems to be one of those one dimensional guys. He gets everyone pumped, delivers a great day one message, but he never adjusts and revitalizes the squad when the shine wears off. A good skip needs to re-light that fire mid-season. I am not sure he can.
2. Dillon Gee - with a ton of talent coming, it is his time to make a case he can be the 4 or 5 long term. I do not know if he can make that next step. By default he has a spot in this rotation, but Wheeler is going to demand a spot by July 1st. Gee could be the casualty.
3. Bobby Parnell - I want him to succeed so badly. I just do not see that Assassin mentality or that raw emotion needed for a top reliever. I hope he makes that step, but I don't expect it. I see much of the same from him and after 2+ seasons with this opportunity in front of him, it is simply not acceptable if he does not grab hold of it.
“Every day is a new opportunity.  You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again.” - Bob Feller
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Posted: 2/24/2013 2:36 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


Turnt Up:

#1. Matt Harvey- Will be the best SP in the staff, a bit better than Niese overall. 195+ IP, 9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9. I don't see the need to be conservative w/ him or w/ the expectation of him. He has the drive and maturity any org. would dream of coming from any up and coming young SP w/ elite potential.

#2. Z. Wheeler- Yes, back to back w/ the Jewels of the Org. Up before June 1st. More or less M. Harvey II in terms of raw #s (K/9, BB/9)... ~120 IP, sub 3.75 ERA.

#3. J. Valdespin- Will get more ABs at 2B than Murphy (more due to injuries than anything else. I don't feel good about this latest rib injury).... + D @ 2B, .750-770 OPS.

* I feel the same as most w/ I. Davis. 4.0 WAR, 35 HR a definite possibility.

* W. Flores could be the 2Bman vs. LHP by the end of the year.

Turnt Down:

#1. S. Marcum- I think he's cooked. Nuff said. Bad signing. 

#2. B. Lyon- Mediocre production. Never been a fan of his stuff.

#3. D. Gee- I was in the camp that thought he was underrated/under-appreciated for the past 2 years. This one is more of a feeling. Gets replaced in the rotation by June. He's quietly had some serious injury issues in his right arm ('10 I believe- opted not to have surgery, and last year). Any dip on his stuff due to past injuries, and he's barely a MLger.  
 

"Seen It All"

loyal_Jues (IG)

Last edited 2/24/2013 11:51 PM by Gstacks177

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Posted: 2/24/2013 2:45 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 



acesfull86 wrote: On the rise:

1)  Ike Davis:  I'm going to double-down on last year's all-star prediction and say he makes it in 2013.  Injuries and illness are not the issue they were this time last year for him.  I think he finally puts together a full year with very nice numbers.
Prediction -- .270/.355/.515, 30-35 HR, 3.0-4.0 fWAR

2) Greg Burke:  A 30 year old reliever with a cup of coffee in 2009 who recently overhauled his delivery?  Yeah, that guy.  The way the Mets pounced on him early makes me feel that they see real potential in him.  I think he becomes a steady, reliable BP arm, one of the great stories/surprises of the season.
Prediction -- 65-70 IP, 7.25 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 0.50 HR/9, 2.75-3.25 ERA

3) Mike Baxter:  The OF is a mess and anyone who shows the slightest bit of production is going to assure himself regular playing time.  Baxter is too old to be a "prospect," but I like his approach at the plate, and I think he's a solid enough fielder.  He'll win the RF job and don't be surprised if his OBP earns him the #1 spot in the lineup.  David DeJesus-like production.
Prediction -- .270/.360/.410, 40-45 XBH, 2.5-3.0 fWAR

Heading in the wrong direction:

1) Johan Santana: It may just be precaution, but I just get a bad vibe with the way the Mets are handling Santana this off-season.  Already his Opening Day start may be in jeopardy.  It's likely the end of the line for Santana in NY and I think he goes out with a whimper
Prediction -- 130-140 IP, 7.0 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, 4.00-4.25 ERA

2)  Lucas Duda:  His bat will rebound a bit, but Duda is going to field his way out of being a regular.  I think the Mets will make the determination that he is not an every day OF'er and he'll be moved either by the deadline or next off-season to a team that can use him as a DH/1B.
Prediction -- .250/.330/.425, 20 HR, 0.7-1.2 fWAR

3) Ruben Tejada:  It's not so much that I think he's going to have a poor year, but I think Tejada is going to reveal how limited his upside is.  I really don't see significant improvement in any area.  A nice piece to have around while he's cheap, but I believe he only remains a Met because there is greater urgency to upgrade at other positions.
Prediction -- .275/.330/.345, 30 XBH, 1.7-2.2 fWAR

Pretty much agree.  I'm a little more optimistic, or at least hopeful, that Johan puts together a strong season, but your three up are the same as mine and both Duda and Tejada would be on my down list as well.  

My other down would probably be Kirk.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 2:46 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


3 Up:

#1. Ike Davis - I think he'll be considered the 2nd best 1st baseman in the NL, all things considered (He might already be)

#2. Jon Niese - I think he's gonna reach front of the rotation status (rather than a good #3). 

#3. Wilmer Flores - I love his bat, and if Murphy can learn to be an average second baseman, I have to think Flores can

 

3 Down:

#1 Dillon Gee - Never a big fan, always thought his numbers were better than he actually was, I think this is the year we'll see that

#2 Lucas Duda - I love the Dude, I really do.  I think we'll come to the realization this year that he isn't a major leaguer though (unfortunately)

#3.  Marlon Byrd - I would put good money on the fact that he'll probably be the everday RF on opening day.  I'd also bet that he isn't on the team in June.  Every year it seems like the Mets have guys like that.

 

 

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Posted: 2/24/2013 2:58 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


To go in a slightly off kilter direction:

down:
Harvey: Maybe just temporarily. but I don't think he just picks up where he left off. He's going to have to take some lumps at some point and have his rough roads to travel. Even if he pans out. I think this season could be a little rough. Certainly won't win many games on this team but I think he could struggle in other areas as well as the league makes adjustments and faces some tougher competition than he faced in his short sampling last year. Still like him and think he can be real good. But I don't see an easy linear path upwards with no bad seasons.

Marcum: I think citifield is the place he's coming to die.

Duda: I think after this year we stop hearing fans and players talk about how "the dude" is gonna be this years surprise.

Santana in this category goes without saying. it's been over for a while. This latest setback was entirely predictable and why i found all that wbc chatter hilarious.


Ups:

Murphy: Settling in at 2nd I could see a nice average with respectable defense and maybe even a slight increase in his power as he gets comfortable without having to earn a job or learn a position.

Niese: fingers cautiously crossed.

Cowgill: the little spark plug that could.

 i remain hopeful on Wheeler and d'Arnoud but I don't think either is the sure thing some do and I really am hesitant on a young catcher with knee issues already as well as a back problem a couple years ago. And Citifield isn't exactly going to be an easy place for him to come out of the gate proving he's a mini Piazza.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 4:26 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


Up:

Tejada- the guy is only 23 and has gotten better every year. And yet he gets little love here. I'm looking for a rebound in his walk rate and a few more XBH. .300 avg and .350 OBP. Clearly a top 5 SS in the NL by end of season.

Duda- his bat will be up anyway. His defense is what it is. I see him putting up a season closer to his 2011 numbers than his 2012. 30 2B, 20 HR and .825 OPS.

Lyon- he will emerge as the most reliable late inning guy we have.


Down:

Parnell- takes a step back after encouraging 2012.

Valdespin- will be back and forth to Vegas all year as he fails to be reliable anywhere Collins puts him.

Familia- Mets will keep him in the BP with the big club and his results will be uneven at best. We'll finish 2013 still wondering if he's a RP or SP.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 5:02 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


Mookie......the only one hi on Duda. I've got one foot off the bandwagon. Lots of room on board.

Hitting tool is there. Just not sure the makeup is.


Has he been able to even foul a pitch off yet?

4-4 today. Golden Sombrero.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 5:22 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 


Fun topic.   Best line is oct86s Colin McHefner line......that's great.   lol.


Three Up:

Ok.....I'll say it.....Kirk Niewenhuis.   Every platoon planned can't go badly, right?    I think Kirk puts together a nice season, stays healthy, and partially stabilizes the Mets OF....or at least puts himself in the mix as a #4-5 go-to future backup OFer you are not afraid to give 200 to 400 ABs.   

TDA -    Comes up in June and refuses to go back down.   

Ike Davis -    Puts his offensive game back in place and combines a solid BA to go with his already solid SLG #s

Three Down:


Harvey/Wheeler -     Just because the euphoria is just so high right now......as it should be.    Wheeler has a tricky year in the Vegas band-box league.....but enters the fray in the rotation sometime after the All-Star break before getting shut down in early September.....as is customary.    Harvey starts strong and fades down the stretch as teams figure him out......he figures out how much he can pitch......and he doesn't quite put up the gawdy figures he put up towards the end of last season.    But the upside is still there in spades for both Harvey and Wheeler.

Parnell -     Confirms himself as the softest RP that throws 100 MPH since Kyle Farnsworth......even though Farnsworth figured it out towards his 35th b-day


Frank Francisco  -     Traded by the All-Star break as fans just can't take anymore and his cost outweighs his benefits.   


Fun responses by all.......it's great to have the boys back on the field!

Last edited 2/24/2013 5:23 PM by JeffHostetlerFan

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Posted: 2/24/2013 5:52 PM

Re: Three Up, Three Down in 2013 




---------------------------------------------
--- sweeper5 wrote:

Mookie......the only one hi on Duda. I've got one foot off the bandwagon. Lots of room on board.

Hitting tool is there. Just not sure the makeup is.


Has he been able to even foul a pitch off yet?

4-4 today. Golden Sombrero.

---------------------------------------------

I'm being a little bit of a contrarian on Duda at this point. My first choice was to trade him this winter for a reliever or an OFer who can catch the ball but that didn't happen obviously. At this point though I feel like their OF is so terrible that Duda will probably get 500+ ABs as the LFer. I've always loved his hit tool and I'm hoping they leave him alone this year and let him be the gap to gap guy he was throughout his minor league career and in the majors in 2011. If they do that I think he'll put up solid offensive numbers. You'll see a lower K rate and higher OBP out of him. He defense will pull him down to near replacement level overall but at least I think he'll hit some.
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