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OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade

Posted: 12/20/2012 8:05 AM

OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 


Was just thinking about this the other day, and it's actually interesting to wonder how things would have played out for the Mets had Griffey accepted that trade.

First off, assuming the package centered around Benitez, Cedeno, and Dotel, right off the bat we know we wouldn't have gotten Mike Hampton.  Probably a lower level signing, considering our rotation was decent before we got Hampton with Leiter, Reed, Jones, Yoshii.  Who knows if swapping out Hampton for Griffey would have made us better or worse, considering Hampton was pretty awesome for us that year.

What also is very interesting is if we did not trade for Hampton, we obviously wouldn't have lost him to free agency, and most likely wouldn't have drafted David Wright that next season(unless they would have taken him in the 1st round instead of Heilman.  Possible, but doubtful IMO).

All I know is that lineup in 2000 would have been pretty sick:  1. Timo? 2. Alfonzo 3. Griffey 4. Piazza 5. Ventura 6. Zeile 7. Benny 8. Bordick/Mora

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Posted: 12/20/2012 8:16 AM

Re: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 


Nice topic -- always enjoy thinking about alternate timelines.

A Griffey acquisition would have ultimately skewed us into an Alternate 2000 - not to mention, completely different present day:

"Use your head.....that's that lump 3 feet above your arse." - Jimmy Dugan

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Posted: 12/20/2012 9:32 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 


You also have to wonder whether Griffey's injury issues were ultimately unavoidable or whether an alternate reality would've left him the HR king with 800+ and poised to enter the HoF with a Mets cap.
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  • tomjm5000
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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:13 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 


If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.
_________________________________________________________
FTM

Last edited 12/20/2012 10:14 AM by tomjm5000

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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:20 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

That was always one of my biggest Met-disappointments.  Anytime I played at S.I. Yankee Ballpark, looking up to see the "retired number" of Jason Anderson.....either made me laugh, or fume.

"Use your head.....that's that lump 3 feet above your arse." - Jimmy Dugan

Last edited 12/20/2012 10:35 AM by Walnutz15

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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:21 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:33 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



Penningtana wrote:
tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.

Was it the right call? He had a winning record 5 straight years with ERAs below 3.5 in 3 of them and below 4 in 4 of them on an awful Rays team in the strongest division in baseball and was a 2 time all star (granted this was mostly by default, but he was actually a deserving allstar).  I don't know if trading him was the right move.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:42 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 


Downplay? Don't know if it was the right move? This was perhaps the worst trade in Mets history, based on the value of the player traded and the value of the player obtained, not to mention the laughable attempt at "going for it" that year. Even if trading Kazmir was "the right move," trading him for the wrong Zambrano was absurd. I remember reading the rumors about it in the Post and thinking that the author was a moron for even suggesting such a thing.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:44 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.

Was it the right call? He had a winning record 5 straight years with ERAs below 3.5 in 3 of them and below 4 in 4 of them on an awful Rays team in the strongest division in baseball and was a 2 time all star (granted this was mostly by default, but he was actually a deserving allstar).  I don't know if trading him was the right move.
I read a lot where Kazmir helped change the losing culture down in Tampa, so there's the lost possibilities of the intangibles he could have brought to the lockroom along with an excellent 5 year run which I would rather have than 10 years of mediocre.

This trade itself was one of the few things we can all agree; it stunk

RIP WIC 2005-2008

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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:45 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.

Was it the right call? He had a winning record 5 straight years with ERAs below 3.5 in 3 of them and below 4 in 4 of them on an awful Rays team in the strongest division in baseball and was a 2 time all star (granted this was mostly by default, but he was actually a deserving allstar).  I don't know if trading him was the right move.
He had a decent run but was never the dominant lefty people thought he'd be.  Especially when he was considered on par with a guy like Hamels, who has been an ace his entire career. 

If you had a crystal ball and knew the type of pitcher Kazmir would become, you wouldn't have used him as trade bait considering how ridiculously high his value was at the time?  He could have been a decent piece for us, especially during that 2006 run, but he probably also could have returned a piece good enough to put us over that hump in '06 had we just waited for the right deal to come along.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:46 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



throughthewickets wrote: Downplay? Don't know if it was the right move? This was perhaps the worst trade in Mets history, based on the value of the player traded and the value of the player obtained, not to mention the laughable attempt at "going for it" that year. Even if trading Kazmir was "the right move," trading him for the wrong Zambrano was absurd. I remember reading the rumors about it in the Post and thinking that the author was a moron for even suggesting such a thing.
Obviously the return was bad, which made it an awful trade.  But that wasn't the OP's point.  He said trading Kazmir was a good move, just the return was bad.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:53 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



Penningtana wrote:
metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.

Was it the right call? He had a winning record 5 straight years with ERAs below 3.5 in 3 of them and below 4 in 4 of them on an awful Rays team in the strongest division in baseball and was a 2 time all star (granted this was mostly by default, but he was actually a deserving allstar).  I don't know if trading him was the right move.
He had a decent run but was never the dominant lefty people thought he'd be.  Especially when he was considered on par with a guy like Hamels, who has been an ace his entire career. 

If you had a crystal ball and knew the type of pitcher Kazmir would become, you wouldn't have used him as trade bait considering how ridiculously high his value was at the time?  He could have been a decent piece for us, especially during that 2006 run, but he probably also could have returned a piece good enough to put us over that hump in '06 had we just waited for the right deal to come along.
Obviously his value wasn't that high if all we got back was Victor Zambrano.  No, I don't think the right move would have been to trade him.  If you're of the belief that going to the AL (especially to the AL East) adds at least half run to your ERA, Kazmir was a borderline ace over his first 4 years.  Especially considering what the 2006 team needed was another top of the rotation starter, I wouldn't have traded him.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:58 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.

Was it the right call? He had a winning record 5 straight years with ERAs below 3.5 in 3 of them and below 4 in 4 of them on an awful Rays team in the strongest division in baseball and was a 2 time all star (granted this was mostly by default, but he was actually a deserving allstar).  I don't know if trading him was the right move.
Another interesting hypo is wondering what would have happened in 2006 if we had Kazmir to back up Pedro and el Duque in the rotation. 

I think people forget just how down fans (and some posters here) were on the 06 Mets out of the gate. Perish the thought, but they used to call him "Inning Endy" Chavez. And they weren't being complimentary. Carlos Beltran was hurt quite a bit in April (which earned him some continuing ire after his underwhelming 05). His massive offensive output (41 HR, 38 2B, 116 RBI) is all the more impressive because he did it in only 140 games. Kaz Matsui and Chris Woodward combined for almost 400 plate appearances, and an OPS somewhere around .566. And we gave 7 starts to Jose Lima and Geremi Gonzalez (may they both RIP). Yup.


Last edited 12/20/2012 11:00 AM by Absentminded

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Posted: 12/20/2012 11:05 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



Absentminded wrote:
metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.

Was it the right call? He had a winning record 5 straight years with ERAs below 3.5 in 3 of them and below 4 in 4 of them on an awful Rays team in the strongest division in baseball and was a 2 time all star (granted this was mostly by default, but he was actually a deserving allstar).  I don't know if trading him was the right move.
Another interesting hypo is wondering what would have happened in 2006 if we had Kazmir to back up Pedro and el Duque in the rotation. 

I think people forget just how down fans (and some posters here) were on the 06 Mets out of the gate. Perish the thought, but they used to call him "Inning Endy" Chavez. And they weren't being complimentary. Carlos Beltran was hurt quite a bit in April (which earned him some continuing ire after his underwhelming 05). His massive offensive output (41 HR, 38 2B, 116 RBI) is all the more impressive because he did it in only 140 games. Kaz Matsui and Chris Woodward combined for almost 400 plate appearances, and an OPS somewhere around .566. And we gave 7 starts to Jose Lima and Geremi Gonzalez (may they both RIP). Yup.

We also gave a hand full of starts to Alay Soler.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 11:05 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 


A bunch of points:

1) My reading comprehension sucks. I didn't realize the OP asserted that trading Kazmir (for a better return) was correct. I disagree with him.

2) Just because Kazmir's career played out in a particular way doesn't mean that's the only way it could have played out. In a different league, in a different city, with a different coach...things might have turned out differently.

3) Even if Kazmir put up the same numbers in NY he put up in Tampa, that would have been a huge boost to the '05-'08 Mets.

4) There was no hump to get over in 2006. The Mets were the best team in baseball. They just needed to play better for two innings. That's not about a singe player, though they would have done better if the rotation didn't fall apart going into the playoffs. Kazmir certainly would have helped with that.

5) There was definitely a hump in '07 and '08. Pretty sure Kazmir would have been the difference between 3 consecutive playoff appearances to close out Shea, and the whimper that the team went out with those years.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 11:05 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.

Was it the right call? He had a winning record 5 straight years with ERAs below 3.5 in 3 of them and below 4 in 4 of them on an awful Rays team in the strongest division in baseball and was a 2 time all star (granted this was mostly by default, but he was actually a deserving allstar).  I don't know if trading him was the right move.
He had a decent run but was never the dominant lefty people thought he'd be.  Especially when he was considered on par with a guy like Hamels, who has been an ace his entire career. 

If you had a crystal ball and knew the type of pitcher Kazmir would become, you wouldn't have used him as trade bait considering how ridiculously high his value was at the time?  He could have been a decent piece for us, especially during that 2006 run, but he probably also could have returned a piece good enough to put us over that hump in '06 had we just waited for the right deal to come along.
Obviously his value wasn't that high if all we got back was Victor Zambrano.  No, I don't think the right move would have been to trade him.  If you're of the belief that going to the AL (especially to the AL East) adds at least half run to your ERA, Kazmir was a borderline ace over his first 4 years.  Especially considering what the 2006 team needed was another top of the rotation starter, I wouldn't have traded him.

I don't agree with that at all.  I think the Mets were desperate to make a playoff run - They liked Zambrano a lot - TB wouldn't budge on their demand of Kazmir - and the Mets folded.  I would be willing to bet that their would have been a handful of quality players available that offseason that the Mets could have packaged Kazmir for, had they just waited it out.  Even if some teams were scared off by his injury potential, there were probably just as many if not more teams who weren't.

We could have kept him and gotten 4 good seasons.  Maybe a WS in '06, who knows.  I would have personally liked to see what was on the market in the '04/05 offseason before I made any decision, but in the end if you are right and there was nothing there the obvious choice would have been to keep him.  I just don't think the market was anywhere near how low you think it was/would have been for Kazmir.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 11:06 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 


6) Kazmir getting traded for Zambrano does not mean he was of low value. Just because they elected to trade him for VZ does not mean they couldn't have received a better player elsewhere.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 11:23 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



Penningtana wrote:
metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
metfansrule wrote:
Penningtana wrote:
tomjm5000 wrote: If memory served, in 2003 we could have landed Adrian Gonzales for Armando Benitez. But after a couple of his meltdowns (and the rangers settling for Urbina), we traded him to the yankees for nothing.

Now THERE's an alternate timeline for you.

I joined this board a few days after that debacle... I was probably looking to vent.

Just a year later Kazmir was traded for Zambrano.  I think people tend to downplay how bad that trade was, because Kazmir never lived up to the hype, but IMO that will always be a terrible trade just based on how much value Kazmir had at the time.  Trading him turned out to be the right call.  The target was just way off base.

Was it the right call? He had a winning record 5 straight years with ERAs below 3.5 in 3 of them and below 4 in 4 of them on an awful Rays team in the strongest division in baseball and was a 2 time all star (granted this was mostly by default, but he was actually a deserving allstar).  I don't know if trading him was the right move.
He had a decent run but was never the dominant lefty people thought he'd be.  Especially when he was considered on par with a guy like Hamels, who has been an ace his entire career. 

If you had a crystal ball and knew the type of pitcher Kazmir would become, you wouldn't have used him as trade bait considering how ridiculously high his value was at the time?  He could have been a decent piece for us, especially during that 2006 run, but he probably also could have returned a piece good enough to put us over that hump in '06 had we just waited for the right deal to come along.
Obviously his value wasn't that high if all we got back was Victor Zambrano.  No, I don't think the right move would have been to trade him.  If you're of the belief that going to the AL (especially to the AL East) adds at least half run to your ERA, Kazmir was a borderline ace over his first 4 years.  Especially considering what the 2006 team needed was another top of the rotation starter, I wouldn't have traded him.

I don't agree with that at all.  I think the Mets were desperate to make a playoff run - They liked Zambrano a lot - TB wouldn't budge on their demand of Kazmir - and the Mets folded.  I would be willing to bet that their would have been a handful of quality players available that offseason that the Mets could have packaged Kazmir for, had they just waited it out.  Even if some teams were scared off by his injury potential, there were probably just as many if not more teams who weren't.

We could have kept him and gotten 4 good seasons.  Maybe a WS in '06, who knows.  I would have personally liked to see what was on the market in the '04/05 offseason before I made any decision, but in the end if you are right and there was nothing there the obvious choice would have been to keep him.  I just don't think the market was anywhere near how low you think it was/would have been for Kazmir.
Well Kazmir was never a top 10 prospect (according to BA), he was borderline (topping out at # 11).  I don't think, given our situation at the time (a middling team), and how prospects are being traded now (top 5 prospects + more prospects being traded for guys like James Shields) that trading him would ever have been the right move.

I was probably exagerrating saying his value was THAT low (Zambrano was always mediocre), but I also don't think trading him would have netted us what he eventually became for those 4 years.  And you're giving me a crystal ball.. So I wouldn't trade him.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 11:27 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 


Kazmir was also promoted to MLB when he was 20. If he finished the 2004 season without losing his prospect status, he could have been in the top 10.
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Posted: 12/20/2012 11:30 AM

RE: OT - Revisit the Griffey Non-Trade 



throughthewickets wrote: Kazmir was also promoted to MLB when he was 20. If he finished the 2004 season without losing his prospect status, he could have been in the top 10.

I actually just looked this up and pre-2005 he was ranked 7th.. my mistake.

My main point still stands that I don't trade him no matter what.
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