Free Trial Ad
Why Subscribe?
  • Player/Prospect News
  • Exclusive Insider Info
  • Members-Only Forums
  • Exclusive Videos
  • Subscribe Now!
Inbox
Reply to TopicPost New Topic
  Page of 4  Next >

NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest

Avatar

Posted: 11/4/2012 11:31 AM

NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


Solid participation last year.  We're a little late this year, but what the heck...there's nothing else going on.

Objective: Deliver your plan to build the 2013 NY Mets.  The voters will decide which plan they like best based on creativity, feasibility, etc.

Rules:

1) Assume a maximum payroll of $110M.  I know this is a little higher than our likely payroll, but it will allow for a more interesting contest (or we can lower it if we want)

2) No significant back-loaded deals (ie: no signing Josh Hamilton to a contract where he makes $5M in 2013 then $25M a season after).  We'll let the voters hold participants accountable.

3) The deadline will be next Sunday the 18th.

4) Assume the following contract values for the 2013 Mets:

Guaranteed contracts

Santana: $25.5
Bay: $18.125
Wright: $16.0
Francisco: $6.5
Dickey: $5.0
Niese: $3.05

Arbitration Eligibles (NOTE: you can choose to tender or not tender contracts to these players)

Pelfrey: $5.7
Torres: $3.2
Murphy: $3.0
Davis: $2.8
Parnell: $1.5
Thole: $1.2
Acosta: $1.1
Johnson: $0.6
Lewis: $0.5

Pre-Arbitration Eligibles (NOTE: just assume $0.5 for any of these players you choose to add to the roster)

Baxter
Carson
Duda
Edgin
Familia
Flores
Gee
Harvey
Havens
Hefner
Lagares
Lutz
McHugh
Mejia
Nieuwenhuis
Puello
Ramirez (Elvin)
Recker
Tejada
Turner
Valdespin

Some good resources to use for information and ideas:

Mets' commitments through 2017


MLB Free Agents

MLB Payrolls

Non-tender candidates


17 & 14 = Best Duo In NY Sports

Last edited 11/11/2012 2:45 PM by acesfull86

Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/4/2012 2:59 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


My plan is pretty simple. Should garner lots of votes.

1) Sell the team to Mark Cuban
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/4/2012 4:34 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


JS and Bay's combined $8.5M buyout at season's end plays a significant role in the '13 payroll... Are we counting it towards the '13 payroll?
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/4/2012 5:14 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


I think that we should assume the expected 2013 payroll. If the 2013 payroll is going to be $95 million, then a $15 million difference is basically an all-star caliber player. Might as well be accurate.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/4/2012 6:05 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


I don't think the buyouts would count against 2013 -- by the time the buyputs are even decided, the season is over.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/4/2012 7:33 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 



erosen wrote: I don't think the buyouts would count against 2013 -- by the time the buyputs are even decided, the season is over.
If I'm not mistaken, K-Rod's '11 buyout $ counted against the '11 payroll...
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/4/2012 7:42 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


How about $100M, buyouts go towards 2014?


17 & 14 = Best Duo In NY Sports
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/5/2012 12:44 AM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


I believe Alderson has already stated that they count against the 2013 payroll, unfortunately.
And I'd include them and set a soft cap at 105 million $ (which'd be slightly higher than 2012).
Makes things less exciting, of course, but I'm afraid, that's the way it is...
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/5/2012 7:51 AM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


"If I'm not mistaken, K-Rod's '11 buyout $ counted against the '11 payroll..."

In what capacity?  For Luxury Tax purposes, maybe, but surely not for the GMs budget-- how would that even work?

Wilpons: "SA, you have a $95M budget for 2013, but in case you exercise the buy-outs on JS & JB, in November, after the season is over, we're going to withhold $8.5M to cover that."


Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/5/2012 7:52 AM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


FWIW, Cot's has the buy-outs under 2014...

docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pu...Y1E&output=html
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/5/2012 9:44 AM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 



erosen wrote: FWIW, Cot's has the buy-outs under 2014...

docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pu...amp;output=html
Alderson was asked recently, whether the buyouts to Johan and Bay were part of his 2013 budget. And he replied "Yes they are" (or however his wording was, probably a bit more vague as in typical SA fashion...confused). 

In all likelihood, one can probably make an argument for both sides.
However, since they are probably payable in November 2013 and thus would count against the 2013 budget...
Which makes sense if the FO targets 2014 as a year to contend under "full financial autonomy" for the first time in 4 years.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/5/2012 11:55 AM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


But in reality how does that work? Sure, if you've decided now that you will not pick up those options under any circumstance, it is possible to take the 2013 budget, subtract $8.5M and go from there.

But since Santana's option vests if he hits 215 innings in 2013 and Bay with 600 PA, then the only way to say for sure that those buy-outs will be used is by essentially saying that if either gets remotely close to those thresholds they will be benched to avoid the options vesting.

What about the case where you have a 5 WAR player with a $12M option and $3M buyout. You almost certainly don't plan on buying that out, but do you still knock $3M off of your current year budget in case the guy has a major injury that will take him out of all or most of the following year.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/5/2012 12:21 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 



erosen wrote: But in reality how does that work? Sure, if you've decided now that you will not pick up those options under any circumstance, it is possible to take the 2013 budget, subtract $8.5M and go from there.

But since Santana's option vests if he hits 215 innings in 2013 and Bay with 600 PA, then the only way to say for sure that those buy-outs will be used is by essentially saying that if either gets remotely close to those thresholds they will be benched to avoid the options vesting.

What about the case where you have a 5 WAR player with a $12M option and $3M buyout. You almost certainly don't plan on buying that out, but do you still knock $3M off of your current year budget in case the guy has a major injury that will take him out of all or most of the following year.

I guess, a budget is usually made with "likely outcomes" in mind.
If the Mets win 95 games next year as Matt Harvey goes 20-4 with a 2.12 ERA over 199 IP while Zach Wheeler joins him in late May and goes 13-3 with a 2.55 ERA over 141 IP, I´m pretty sure attendance will rise significantly as the season goes on and thus create a lot more revenue and open unexpected space in the budget if the Mets are, say 58-38 in late July and target a deadline trade. Is it likely ? No. But it could happen.

However, the more likely scenario is that the Mets are barely around .500 - and that´s how you plan & work your budget.

Likewise, after not reaching 200 innings in several years, it´d be stunning if Johan Santana suddenly reaches 215 innings next year. Likewise, Jason Bay would really have to re-discover his hitting ability from 2009 to get even close to 600 PA. I´d call either one, let alone both of these options vesting a lot less likely than the Mets somehow winning 95 games in 2013 based on dominating pitching performances.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/5/2012 12:51 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


The main reason why it makes sense for the buyouts to count towards the '13 payroll, it's because that $ is part of the original g-teed yrs. in the contract...

For Santana, it would wrap up his 6 yrs, $137M.

And for Bay, it would wrap up his 4 yrs, $66M.

The majority of the long-term contract over the last 10 years or so are pretty similar to Bay's/JS's w/ the option and buyout... It's done to help the team break down the contract better over the amount of years, but mainly to pay them less in the first half of the contract...
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/5/2012 10:21 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


What a depressing exercise.
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/6/2012 1:45 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


can you say, apathy?
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/6/2012 1:49 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 



Gstacks177 wrote: The main reason why it makes sense for the buyouts to count towards the '13 payroll, it's because that $ is part of the original g-teed yrs. in the contract...

For Santana, it would wrap up his 6 yrs, $137M.

And for Bay, it would wrap up his 4 yrs, $66M.

The majority of the long-term contract over the last 10 years or so are pretty similar to Bay's/JS's w/ the option and buyout... It's done to help the team break down the contract better over the amount of years, but mainly to pay them less in the first half of the contract...
It seems ridiculous for the buyouts to count toward the 2014 payroll.  The buyouts are decided like 5 days after the World Series, aren't they?  So an expense on around November 1, 2013 counts toward the 2014 payroll?
Reply | Quote
Avatar

Posted: 11/6/2012 2:07 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 



DuffyDyer wrote: can you say, apathy?
It's kind of tough to participate in the contest when you only have about $2 million to play with. 'My plan is to bring back the 2012 team + bring Benny Agbayani out of retirement'...ugh.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/6/2012 2:22 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


Many corporations' "years" aren't January 1 to December 31.

I think 'ridiculous' is quite extreme. That we're talking about a buy out of the 2014 season. Isn't that a point to make it plausible?

Given that both options are 99%+ chances of being bought out and the team has minimal chance of needing that money for 2013, I am reasonably OK with it. But what if the Mets figured to be an 88-95 win team and each of them were at least near the value of the contracts, where it was more of a 50/50 based on how they performed in 2013?

Then you are withholding a couple wins worth of money in case one or both of them do not perform well enough to warrant the option year.

To me it more feels like a way the Wilpon's can justify spending $8.5M less in 2013-- and if somehow the two did meet their performance thresholds to automatically vest those options, I highly doubt that the Wilpons are going to SA and saying 'that $8.5M we held back, feel free to spend that next year...'

I read somewhere [couldn't find anything from SA or ownership, so with the internet who knows how true it is], that the $5M that the Mets gave to Milwaukee in 2011 in the K-Rod trade counted against SAs 2012 budget -- even though:
(1) that $5M was roughly the balance of K-Rods 2011 salary, which was already part of the Mets 2011 budget.
(2) the trade saved the team $17.5M in 2012 avoiding the vesting option [and added a couple of minor arms to the farm system]

If that is true, then it seems the Wilpon's are pushing money from one season to another as they see fit. Sure, nothing wrong with that, they own the team and can do what they'd like [within the bounds of the law, I suppose], but it'd probably be best if they picked a strategy and went with it so that at least SA can plan accordingly with long-term obligations.

--
Granted, it's only $1M, but I didn't see SA or the Wilpon's say that $1M of the 2012 budget was reserved in case they had to buy out Wright's contract.
Reply | Quote

Posted: 11/6/2012 2:25 PM

RE: NYFO 2013 Offseason Plan Contest 


"It's kind of tough to participate in the contest when you only have about $2 million to play with. 'My plan is to bring back the 2012 team + bring Benny Agbayani out of retirement'...ugh."

More like $700k, since I'm sure they'll want to count Bonilla's paycheck against the 2013 budget [even though it would already counted against the 2000 budget.
Reply | Quote
Reply to TopicPost New Topic
  Page of 4  Next >