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Off-season ideas

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Posted: 11/3/2012 5:20 PM

Off-season ideas 


I suggested a trade proposal in the Hot Stove thread of Niese+Duda for A.Gordon+Hochever. The Royals have already acquired one starter. but are clearly looking to add 1 or possibly 2 more to their rotation.

They also have a guy like Hosmer who might be available. Would you consider him and then move Ike Davis elsewhere (perhaps even in a deal w/ the Royals) Your not losing anything on defense there IMO. Which makes moving Ike more palpable IMO. Maybe you see Hosmer has a much higher ceiling than Ike? could be a chance worth taking.

It is to bad we could not pry away Salvador Perez. But he is untouchable.

Would the Royals look to add a David Wright as a veteran presence to a young team? is it that time they look to spend some money again?

I don't know,,,but it seems to me the Royals could matchup w/ the Mets in some potential trades and curious to hear some of your thoughts.


Last edited 11/4/2012 7:49 AM by DocK16

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Posted: 11/3/2012 5:25 PM

Re: Trades you'd like to see happen 


I think Niese for Gordon is interesting, though part of me thinks Gordon is essentially a DW clone and would be maligned constantly during slumps.  That said, we need a legit corner OFer in the very worst way, and Gordon is one of the better ones.  I think I might do it if I were GM.

Doubt Hosmer is available, though, and I'm a little concerned with how the Royals rushed his development.  Could take him a while to get things sorted out, assuming he ever does.
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Posted: 11/3/2012 5:38 PM

RE: Trades you'd like to see happen 


yeah that is true on Hosmer they did rush him a bit. I was thinking if they are looking more to win today maybe they would swap him for an Ike Davis and we benefit getting the better player in the long run when we are ready to win.


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Posted: 11/3/2012 5:41 PM

RE: Trades you'd like to see happen 


Another thought that popped into my head today is I had heard mentioned on MLB Network that the Dbacks are a little down on Trevor Bauer for his work ethic. Would you look and see if you could swap Wheeler for Bauer? I would make that deal. I am not as sold on Wheeler as some are. But, the scouts are high on Wheeler and maybe the Dbacks bite there. I think there is potentially a better chance for a Bauer becoming an ace of a staff than a Wheeler.


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Posted: 11/3/2012 6:37 PM

Re: Trades you'd like to see happen 



DocK16 wrote: I think Niese for Gordon is interesting, though part of me thinks Gordon is essentially a DW clone and would be maligned constantly during slumps.  That said, we need a legit corner OFer in the very worst way, and Gordon is one of the better ones.  I think I might do it if I were GM.

Doubt Hosmer is available, though, and I'm a little concerned with how the Royals rushed his development.  Could take him a while to get things sorted out, assuming he ever does.
I would expect it to take more than Niese to get Gordon.  I might even prefer Cain to Gordon at this point considering salary, age, and trajectory.  I'm not comfortable dealing Niese w/o adding a solid SP elsewhere, but I think Niese for Cain plus one or more of their quality pen arms and even another arm prospect is a very reasonable deal for both teams.
"Maybe it's time to make some moves."  - Sandy Alderson

Last edited 11/3/2012 6:49 PM by DuffyDyer

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Posted: 11/3/2012 6:53 PM

RE: Trades you'd like to see happen 



xmulderx wrote: Another thought that popped into my head today is I had heard mentioned on MLB Network that the Dbacks are a little down on Trevor Bauer for his work ethic. Would you look and see if you could swap Wheeler for Bauer? I would make that deal. I am not as sold on Wheeler as some are. But, the scouts are high on Wheeler and maybe the Dbacks bite there. I think there is potentially a better chance for a Bauer becoming an ace of a staff than a Wheeler.
Aren't there concerns about Bauer's velocity dropping?  That would worry me.  Plus I'm not sure if Bauer is still a better procpect.


17 & 14 = Best Duo In NY Sports

Last edited 11/3/2012 7:03 PM by acesfull86

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Posted: 11/3/2012 7:27 PM

RE: Trades you'd like to see happen 



acesfull86 wrote:

Aren't there concerns about Bauer's velocity dropping?  That would worry me.  Plus I'm not sure if Bauer is still a better procpect.
 Yeah, good points. I am not sure on the velocity aspect... The rankings though are very close. I just think Bauer has the tools to be closer to an ace than Wheeler. I tend to think Wheeler is a bit overrated, but i could be completely wrong on that + I also think makeup wise Bauer would be a better fit in new york. It would be a swap of similarly ranked pitching prospects. Which I could see not making much sense to some. Just a thought is all.

I hope this means you have your power back Aces thumbsup.gif


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Posted: 11/3/2012 8:18 PM

RE: Trades you'd like to see happen 


I would like to see Duda traded for Mike Trout and Jason Bay traded for Bryce Harper.
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Posted: 11/3/2012 9:17 PM

RE: Trades you'd like to see happen 



David Wright for Will Middlebrooks and  Matt Barnes
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Posted: 11/4/2012 3:50 AM

Re: Trades you'd like to see happen 


I would not trade
1. Wright for Middlebrooks & Barnes - you´d seriously be downgrading an already mediocre offense by trading away its best hitter and arguably the best 3bman in Baseball right now (not even mentioning PR standpoints which shouldn´t stand in the way of a deal but still are somewhat of a factor). Only exception would be totally outlandish contractual expectations standing in the way.

2. Niese for Gordon - that´s spinning wheels, you´re robbing Peter to pay Paul. Niese was one of the top 25 to 30 pitchers in all of Baseball. If you think that´s not sustainable, sure, make that trade. If you believe Niese took a legit step forward and will eventually be an Andy Pettitte type # 2 starter, you have to keep him, signed to a longterm, team-friendly contract.

3. Wheeler for Bauer
Why give up a top prospect with an ultra-high ceiling who took a step forward in 2012 for a top prospect with an ultra-high ceiling who took a step backward in 2012 and thus may have a tad less of a ceiling today and possibly a coachability problem ???

Instead, here are a few trade ideas, that imho would make a lot more sense structurally going forward and also 2013 purposes: 

# 1
RA Dickey and Daniel Murphy to Arizona for OF Justin Upton  (payroll effect: 3 million extra for 2013 and the two remaing years on Upton´s contract)

# 2 
Jenry Mejia and 2b Reese Havens to COL for 2b Chris Nelson and LHP Matt Reynolds (payroll effect: neutral)

# 3  A nice little "3-way":
To San Diego: OF Chone Figgins and 2 million cash (from Seattle), RHP Hector Noesi (from Seattle) and LHP Robert Carson (from Mets)
To Seattle: OF Jason Bay and 5 million $ cash (from Mets) and OF-1b Lucas Duda (from Mets)
To Mets: OF Will Venable (from San Diego), C Nick Hundley (from San Diego) and OF Franklin Gutierrez (from Seattle)
(payroll effect: neutral, but Hundley´s 2014 guaranteed 4.0 million)

# 4 technically not a trade but:
Sign RHP Jeremy Guthrie to a 1-year, 4.5 million $ contract with a 1.5 million $ buyout or a 2014 club option at 12 million $.   (6.0 million extra cost for 2013, obviously)

# 5 re-sign RHP Ramon Ramirez to a 1-year, 1.25 million $ contract (bounceback candidate, extra cost for 2013, 750 K as he replaces a minimum candidate)  

# 6 re-sign 3b David Wright to a 6-year, 120 million $ extension on top of his 2013 option of 16 million with an option 7th year at 22 million or a 2 million $ buyout

# 7 NT: Pelfrey - Torres - Acosta (saves about 11 million combined)


Your 2013 Mets:

SP: Santana - Niese - Guthrie - Harvey - Gee
RP: Francisco - Parnell - Reynolds - Edgin - R.Ramirez - Familia (!) - Hefner
Payroll pitching staff: roughly 53 million $

Lineup:
1) Nieuwenhuis, cf
2) Tejada, ss
3) Wright, 3b
4) Davis, 1b
5) Upton, rf
6) Venable, lf
7) Nelson, 2b
8) Thole, c

Bench:
Hundley, c
Turner, if
Valdespin, if
Baxter, of
Gutierrez, of

payroll offense: roughly 50 million (including the 5 million sent to SEA for Jason Bay)

Add the costs for minor leaguers brought up and you end up in the 105 million $ range.
Is this team a legit contender ? Probably not.
However, the defense is much improved. And if some of the young pitching is as good as advertised, this team could win 85+ games or so and be in legit WC contention while building for 2014 when Santana, Gutierrez, FF, the money spent on Bay and maybe Guthrie, thus roughly 45 to 50 million $ are coming off the books with only 20 million or so used up on contractual raises (Wright, Upton, Hundley, Niese) and arbitration (Ike, Venable, Parnell, Thole), leaving another 25+ million to spend that off-season on further upgrades...

Last edited 11/4/2012 3:54 AM by DrDooby

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Posted: 11/4/2012 6:35 AM

Re: Trades you'd like to see happen 


1. Instead of Middlebrooks and Barnes, I'd rather do Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley Jr.  Not sure if that's realistic, but it's not too far off from what the Sox gave up for Gonzo.  I don't have a problem with trading Wright as long as it's a net positive going forward.  I think Middlebrooks/JBJ has the potential to be a huge positive.

2. Good point on Niese/Gordon.  Niese very well could be our own Pettitte.  Tough to give that up for a good, not great corner OFer, especially when a lot of Gordon's value is defensive and what we really need is offense.

3. Agreed.  Bauer is overrated.

_____________

#1 - Don't see that being enough for Upton.  The DBacks have SP for days.  

#2 - Nelson's bat would be a welcome addition, but defensively he might be worse than Murphy.  I'm not at all opposed to dealing Mejia or Havens, and I do believe Nelson's bat would be useful, I'm just not sure another butcher is what we need.

#3 - No team is going to want Bay or Figgins, and I'm not sure we aren't making out like bandits with all the players with legit value in that deal.

#4 - Not thanks to Guthrie.  5.10 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season.  No thanks.

#5 - Wouldn't mind that or a similar deal for another MR.  

#6 - Reasonable.  I'm at the point where I'd like to explore dealing Wright, but 6/120 isn't terrible.  

#7 - Yes, please!

Last edited 11/4/2012 6:56 AM by DocK16

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Posted: 11/4/2012 6:49 AM

Re: Trades you'd like to see happen 


Most people will probably hate this, but one option could be Bay for Figgins straight up, with the Mets covering some, if not all, of the difference in cost.  

Here's why it could be a decent idea:

1. Bay is totally finished and the fan base is equally done with him.

2. Figgins can play multiple positions, is a switch hitter, still has some speed, and unlike Bay whose ability to make solid contact has clearly regressed Figgins is still hitting LD at a 20%+ rate. 

At this point, I think Figgins has more utility than Bay, and both could use a change of scenery.  Figgins is already trying to force his way out of Seattle, so we could possibly save a million or two in the deal.  

Now I wouldn't expect a total resurgence out of Figgins, or even close, but I wouldn't underestimate the impact of getting away from Safeco Field.
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Posted: 11/4/2012 7:41 AM

Re: Off-season ideas 


For me:

1. Wright for Middlebrooks + JBJ.  Creates flexibility for 2013 and beyond.  Capt Kirk holds down CF til JBJ is ready to assume the role, possibly as soon as July/August. (- $16M toward 2013 payroll)

2. Bay for Figgins.  Mets cover the difference in contract, minus one million.  Figgins could be used as a super-utility guy to ensure his option doesn't vest. (- $1M)

3. Dillon Gee + Jenry Mejia for Hank Conger and Garret Richards. (neutral)

4. Daniel Murphy for Gordon Beckham. I think a change of scenery could do Beckham a lot of good.  His advanced stats aren't horrible and he seemed to have made progress late last season.  The White Sox will need a 3B in 2013. (neutral)

5. Sign Ryan Ludwick for 2-years, $12M. (+ $6M)

6. Trade Lucas Duda+ for Seth Smith. (+2M)


CF - JBJ
SS - Tejada
3B - Middlebrooks
1B - Davis
RF - Ludwick
LF - Smith
2B - Beckham
C - Conger

SP - Dickey
SP - Harvey
SP - Niese
SP - Johan
SP - Richards
SP - Wheeler

That team won't contend in 2013, but Harvey, Niese, Wheeler, Richards, Middlebrooks, JBJ, Ike, Tejada, Conger, and Beckham is a legitimate young core going forward.  Beckham is no sure thing and neither are Conger or Richards, but they're cheap, young, talented, and with the exception of maybe Beckham, better than anything we already have in house. 

The money saved from trading Wright also gives us additional flexibility to bring in another player or two (about $8M), but I'm too lazy to do any more digging.  

Ludwick is less than ideal, but he's a power bat and that lineup would need one.

Last edited 11/4/2012 8:07 AM by DocK16

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Posted: 11/4/2012 8:05 AM

Re: Trades you'd like to see happen 



DocK16 wrote: Most people will probably hate this, but one option could be Bay for Figgins straight up, with the Mets covering some, if not all, of the difference in cost.  

Here's why it could be a decent idea:

1. Bay is totally finished and the fan base is equally done with him.

2. Figgins can play multiple positions, is a switch hitter, still has some speed, and unlike Bay whose ability to make solid contact has clearly regressed Figgins is still hitting LD at a 20%+ rate. 

At this point, I think Figgins has more utility than Bay, and both could use a change of scenery.  Figgins is already trying to force his way out of Seattle, so we could possibly save a million or two in the deal.  

Now I wouldn't expect a total resurgence out of Figgins, or even close, but I wouldn't underestimate the impact of getting away from Safeco Field.
I wouldn't be adverse to that. At the very least, you are adding speed which the Mets don't have, and even if Figgins were to add .250 that's a vast improvement on Bay. Change of scenery deal.
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Posted: 11/4/2012 9:45 AM

Re: Trades you'd like to see happen 



DrDooby wrote:

# 1
RA Dickey and Daniel Murphy to Arizona for OF Justin Upton  (payroll effect: 3 million extra for 2013 and the two remaing years on Upton´s contract)

Not sure if the DBacks would be interested in an offense for pitching swap with Upton given their young arms coming up in the system (though you could never have too much pitching).

What about involving the Rangers?  For a really good team, their rotation is pedestrian.  Between the Mets (Dickey, Niese, Wheeler) and the DBacks (Kennedy, Miley, Bauer, Skaggs), I wonder if there is a 3-way trade to be made where Elvis Andrus ends up in Arizona, the Mets land Justin Upton, and the Rangers get some pitching?  At some point, I think the Rangers are going to choose Profar over Andrus and will have one of the more valuable trade chips in the league to offer.


xmulderx wrote:

I hope this means you have your power back Aces thumbsup.gif
I',m back.


17 & 14 = Best Duo In NY Sports
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Posted: 11/4/2012 10:58 AM

Re: Trades you'd like to see happen 



DocK16 wrote: Most people will probably hate this, but one option could be Bay for Figgins straight up, with the Mets covering some, if not all, of the difference in cost.  

Here's why it could be a decent idea:

1. Bay is totally finished and the fan base is equally done with him.

2. Figgins can play multiple positions, is a switch hitter, still has some speed, and unlike Bay whose ability to make solid contact has clearly regressed Figgins is still hitting LD at a 20%+ rate. 

At this point, I think Figgins has more utility than Bay, and both could use a change of scenery.  Figgins is already trying to force his way out of Seattle, so we could possibly save a million or two in the deal.  

Now I wouldn't expect a total resurgence out of Figgins, or even close, but I wouldn't underestimate the impact of getting away from Safeco Field.
I've been mulling over that idea for a while as well.  Figgins definitely wants out of Seattle, and they'd be more than willing to move him.  His versatility is definitely a plus.  Mainly an outfielder last year (all three positions), but can also stand in at second and third -- I wonder if he'd push a guy like Turner off the roster, or would he be more of a fourth outfielder type?  Has a rep for being a little ornery, which is something the current FO seems to weigh some when judging players. 

The M's definitely need offense.  And though unlikely, a Bay resurgence would be big for them.  Not that it worked for him here, but the M's are moving in the walls there to make it a little more hitter-friendly.  And not that it matters much, but I believe Bay lives in Seattle during the offseason.

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Posted: 11/4/2012 11:13 AM

Re: Off-season ideas 


I do think Wright to Boston ideas are intriguing.  I can't get a feel for what Boston wants to do this year; are they going to build around their youngsters like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, etc., or are they going to invest their Dodgers trade savings into 2013's team to make a run?  If it's the latter, I think it's a potential landing spot for Dickey.  They have a definite need in the rotation, and there's the Wakefield history there as well.

That being said, if Wright were to head to Boston in a trade, I'm hoping our homegrown Flores is the heir at third, and thus I'd be more interested in Jackie Bradley and either Lavarnway or Salty as a potential Wright return.  Of course Boston wouldn't need Middlebrooks if they add Wright, so he's an obvious trade chip in that scenario (he'd be a key piece to dangle in front of Arizona for Upton...)

Bradley imo is going to be a star, and not just because of the numbers he will potentially put up.  I followed him when he was with the Gamecocks.  He's the kind of guy fans love.  Attidude, personality -- all off the charts.  Great kid; I'd love to see him on the Mets.

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Posted: 11/4/2012 11:16 AM

RE: Trades you'd like to see happen 



xmulderx wrote:
acesfull86 wrote:

Aren't there concerns about Bauer's velocity dropping?  That would worry me.  Plus I'm not sure if Bauer is still a better procpect.
 Yeah, good points. I am not sure on the velocity aspect... The rankings though are very close. I just think Bauer has the tools to be closer to an ace than Wheeler. I tend to think Wheeler is a bit overrated, but i could be completely wrong on that + I also think makeup wise Bauer would be a better fit in new york. It would be a swap of similarly ranked pitching prospects. Which I could see not making much sense to some. Just a thought is all.

I hope this means you have your power back Aces thumbsup.gif
Curious as to what you're talking about here?  Have you heard anything negative regarding Wheeler?  I have heard that Bauer has had some issues.  Just wondering.  :)

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Posted: 11/4/2012 1:38 PM

Re: Off-season ideas 



DocK16 wrote: For me:

1. Wright for Middlebrooks + JBJ.  Creates flexibility for 2013 and beyond.  Capt Kirk holds down CF til JBJ is ready to assume the role, possibly as soon as July/August. (- $16M toward 2013 payroll)

2. Bay for Figgins.  Mets cover the difference in contract, minus one million.  Figgins could be used as a super-utility guy to ensure his option doesn't vest. (- $1M)

3. Dillon Gee + Jenry Mejia for Hank Conger and Garret Richards. (neutral)

4. Daniel Murphy for Gordon Beckham. I think a change of scenery could do Beckham a lot of good.  His advanced stats aren't horrible and he seemed to have made progress late last season.  The White Sox will need a 3B in 2013. (neutral)

5. Sign Ryan Ludwick for 2-years, $12M. (+ $6M)

6. Trade Lucas Duda+ for Seth Smith. (+2M)

  I would be down with a lot of this.   The only one i would throw out right away is #5.


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Posted: 11/4/2012 2:40 PM

Re: Off-season ideas 



xmulderx wrote:
DocK16 wrote: For me:

1. Wright for Middlebrooks + JBJ.  Creates flexibility for 2013 and beyond.  Capt Kirk holds down CF til JBJ is ready to assume the role, possibly as soon as July/August. (- $16M toward 2013 payroll)

2. Bay for Figgins.  Mets cover the difference in contract, minus one million.  Figgins could be used as a super-utility guy to ensure his option doesn't vest. (- $1M)

3. Dillon Gee + Jenry Mejia for Hank Conger and Garret Richards. (neutral)

4. Daniel Murphy for Gordon Beckham. I think a change of scenery could do Beckham a lot of good.  His advanced stats aren't horrible and he seemed to have made progress late last season.  The White Sox will need a 3B in 2013. (neutral)

5. Sign Ryan Ludwick for 2-years, $12M. (+ $6M)

6. Trade Lucas Duda+ for Seth Smith. (+2M)

  I would be down with a lot of this.   The only one i would throw out right away is #5.
Can't find fault with much of what Doc suggests, but that will be an absolutely awful team next year.
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