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SI Power Rankings 2/20
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Posted: 2/21/2013 1:24 PM
SI Power Rankings 2/20
Interesting read about Bucky in this week's SI.com Power Rankings: SI Power Rankings
Interesting discussion of RPI vs. KenPom. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 1:40 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team
Bo Ryan's offense is officially dead and has been figured out by the B1G. The only way he can continue to coach it is if he significantly upgrades the players.-George2k5 |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:16 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:24 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. I feel like I've heard this argument before... |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:30 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. He did one post about one Wisconsin season in particular. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:31 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
Because there's such a huge difference between making the S16 and E8....one whole game. Yes, vastly overrated. His expectation at this point doesn't consider seeding...sometimes you come up against a #1 seed in the S16 where we obviously wouldn't be favored. Current bracket has UW as a 5 playing #1 Duke in the S16...we would not be expected to win. Seeding plays a big part in how far one gets...I don't know why some folks don't get this. LamarMundane wrote:
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:33 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
I thought it was more interesting that CSU is ranked ahead of the Badgers and that former Gopher Colton Iverson is like Shaq in the MWC apparently.
Last edited 2/21/2013 2:35 PM by combatsports4life
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:36 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. He also stated in a blog that he should not have written the article because in the end his ranking of Wisconsin was closer to the final result that anyone else. There is no doubt that the Pomeroy computer ranking rates UW a BIT higher than they probably deserve, but that just counters the even less accurate "eye test" rankings
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:42 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
When is the last time that Wisconsin performed up to the level that Pomeroy's rankings had them at?
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:48 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote: When is the last time that Wisconsin performed up to the level that Pomeroy's rankings had them at? Year Final RPI Final KP 2011-2012 23 5 2010-2011 16 7 That's where they were at the last couple of years. I think it's pretty obvious that when you look at RPI and KP that we are somewhere in the middle of the two.
Last edited 2/21/2013 2:52 PM by combatsports4life
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:50 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. We were one bucket away from that being correct last year.
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:51 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote: When is the last time that Wisconsin performed up to the level that Pomeroy's rankings had them at? First -I said that Pomeroy overvalues UW slightly - but you make it sound like he is way off. The last 2 years he had them ranked 5 and 7 and both years they made the S16 - so theoretically they could have been the 9th best team. BTW - there are a couple of other computer models that have the Badgers rated higher than Pomeroy this year, so it is not just his computer model that rates the Badgers high. There have been numerous discussions about the reasons for this that you have been part of, so no reason to go over it again
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Posted: 2/21/2013 2:53 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
badgeryem wrote:
LamarMundane wrote:
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. We were one bucket away from that being correct last year. Nope. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:01 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. He did not say we are an elite 8 or final 4 team. He said we have the potential to be. That is true. Some of you don't understand his statistics. Even with our best teams, he gives us like a 10-20% chance of making the final 4...he is not saying we will make it. So no, he is not wrong. Only 1 team can make the final 4 from each region. We have NEVER been favored to make the final 4. The year we were closest we lost Butch just before the tournament.
Last edited 2/21/2013 3:02 PM by mkm13
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:05 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
combatsports4life wrote:
LamarMundane wrote: When is the last time that Wisconsin performed up to the level that Pomeroy's rankings had them at?
Year Final RPI Final KP
2011-2012 23 5
2010-2011 16 7
That's where they were at the last couple of years. I think it's pretty obvious that when you look at RPI and KP that we are somewhere in the middle of the two. This is why I like looking at the Massey composite rankings which currently has UW at 14 - I think that is pretty reasonable
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:14 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
badgeryem wrote:
LamarMundane wrote:
Badger8843 wrote: Says KenPom has us as a elite 8 final 4 team Yeah, just like it does every year, and is always wrong. People need to learn to ignore KenPom's ratings when it comes to Wisconsin. He even wrote a blog post about it. He admits that his formula vastly overrates UW. We were one bucket away from that being correct last year. Nope. How a single team does in the tourney is not a reflection of the method that rates them. If KenPom was right 100% of the time he'd keep his rankings to himself and be the richest man in the world. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:19 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
Lamar hates any ranking system that recognizes that Bo and the Badgers are an elite program.  **** "Bully!" -- Teddy Roosevelt
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:30 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
mudcannon wrote:
How a single team does in the tourney is not a reflection of the method that rates them. If KenPom was right 100% of the time he'd keep his rankings to himself and be the richest man in the world. His rankings seem to do real well when it comes to Kentucky and Kansas and North Carolina, it's just that every year he ranks Wisconsin about 10-15 places higher than everyone else and where they actually finish. His rankings fail when it comes to Wisconsin - it happens every year and everyone knows it, including himself. He has UW at #5 right now. I challenge anyone to find one person or system that has Wisconsin ranked anywhere near that high. One of the things I learned getting an education at UW-Madison was to be a critical thinker. It seems that most on this board missed those classes or didn't get an education at all. The inability to admit facts here is stunning. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:33 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
BB Fran wrote: Lamar hates any ranking system that recognizes that Bo and the Badgers are an elite program. Yes, absolutely correct. I'd have the same view of a system that rated Gonzaga as an elite program every year. Good, yes. Very good, yes. Elite? Not a chance. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:42 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
He has UW at #5 right now. I challenge anyone to find one person or system that has Wisconsin ranked anywhere near that high.
Challenge accepted. This site has the Badgers ranked 4th in the country. http://powerratings.com/cbasket.htmThis site has the Badgers ranked 5th in the country. http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/m-basket.htmDo you need more or is that enough? |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:43 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
mudcannon wrote:
How a single team does in the tourney is not a reflection of the method that rates them. If KenPom was right 100% of the time he'd keep his rankings to himself and be the richest man in the world. His rankings seem to do real well when it comes to Kentucky and Kansas and North Carolina, it's just that every year he ranks Wisconsin about 10-15 places higher than everyone else and where they actually finish. His rankings fail when it comes to Wisconsin - it happens every year and everyone knows it, including himself.
He has UW at #5 right now. I challenge anyone to find one person or system that has Wisconsin ranked anywhere near that high.
One of the things I learned getting an education at UW-Madison was to be a critical thinker. It seems that most on this board missed those classes or didn't get an education at all. The inability to admit facts here is stunning. http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/m-basket.htm http://www.rtsratings.com/CBBTop10.asp http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1 213.htm Any computer ranking system that evaluates efficiency differential controlled for comparative quality of opponent will have UW ranked high. All of these have been shown to be more predictive of future wins than any of the subjective "eye test" rankings
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Posted: 2/21/2013 3:55 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
mudcannon wrote:
How a single team does in the tourney is not a reflection of the method that rates them. If KenPom was right 100% of the time he'd keep his rankings to himself and be the richest man in the world. His rankings seem to do real well when it comes to Kentucky and Kansas and North Carolina, it's just that every year he ranks Wisconsin about 10-15 places higher than everyone else and where they actually finish. His rankings fail when it comes to Wisconsin - it happens every year and everyone knows it, including himself.
He has UW at #5 right now. I challenge anyone to find one person or system that has Wisconsin ranked anywhere near that high.
One of the things I learned getting an education at UW-Madison was to be a critical thinker. It seems that most on this board missed those classes or didn't get an education at all. The inability to admit facts here is stunning. Says the guy slamming statistical and empirical evidence and championing... his own gut instinct? His agenda? |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 4:09 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
FrontRowJBo wrote:
Says the guy slamming statistical and empirical evidence and championing... his own gut instinct? His agenda? Nope. KenPom's own published track record. It's right there for all to see. Need a link? It's wrong, and it's wrong every year, and it's always wrong on one side. Those are the facts. |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 4:14 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
So the teams that lose in the sweet sixteen have a final ranking of tied for 16th? Or is it tied for 9th?
Giving validity to any rankings based upon NCAA tournament performance is even less accurate than the rankings themselves.
IMO, Luke Winn's articles are the best read in all of sports.
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Posted: 2/21/2013 4:25 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
FireMarshalBill wrote: So the teams that lose in the sweet sixteen have a final ranking of tied for 16th? Or is it tied for 9th?
What difference does it make if KenPom has them ranked #5? |
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Posted: 2/21/2013 4:27 PM
RE: SI Power Rankings 2/20
Ken Pom's rankings care bout efficiency. Because of our methodical pace, we are extremely efficient against bad teams (much moreso than, say a team that takes any open shot). This inflates our offensive ranking quite a bit. That increased efficiency, which is based on opposing mistakes and our ability to capitalize, isn't as helpful against solid defensive teams. In this regard, KenPom is designed to overrate the Badger offense. That said, it has little to no impact on our defensive ranking, which has been our big strength the last two years.
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Posted: 2/21/2013 4:30 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
LamarMundane wrote:
FrontRowJBo wrote:
Says the guy slamming statistical and empirical evidence and championing... his own gut instinct? His agenda? Nope. KenPom's own published track record. It's right there for all to see. Need a link? It's wrong, and it's wrong every year, and it's always wrong on one side. Those are the facts. You are just being silly at this point - you are better than that Lamar - you having a bad day? Slight variations in all rankings are a given - if that wasn't the case these guys would all be multimillionaires. Pomeroy system is as accurate as any of the public rating services - better than most.
Last edited 2/21/2013 4:34 PM by Madtowntom
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Posted: 2/21/2013 4:44 PM
Re: SI Power Rankings 2/20
Buckynum2 wrote:
LamarMundane wrote:
He has UW at #5 right now. I challenge anyone to find one person or system that has Wisconsin ranked anywhere near that high.
Challenge accepted. This site has the Badgers ranked 4th in the country.
http://powerratings.com/cbasket.htm
This site has the Badgers ranked 5th in the country.
http://sonnymoorepowerratings.com/m-basket.htm
Do you need more or is that enough? I see that Lamar ignored you. That's convenient.
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- OshMau
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Posted: 2/21/2013 4:59 PM
RE: SI Power Rankings 2/20
Kenpom predicted one point loss vs Syracuse in s16.
Care to share what the final score was lame-ar?
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Posted: 2/21/2013 5:00 PM
RE: SI Power Rankings 2/20
SmartBadgerFan wrote: Ken Pom's rankings care bout efficiency. Because of our methodical pace, we are extremely efficient against bad teams (much moreso than, say a team that takes any open shot). This inflates our offensive ranking quite a bit. That increased efficiency, which is based on opposing mistakes and our ability to capitalize, isn't as helpful against solid defensive teams. In this regard, KenPom is designed to overrate the Badger offense. That said, it has little to no impact on our defensive ranking, which has been our big strength the last two years. While this theoretical argument might reflect the conventional wisdom of why KenPom tends to overrate UW, I'm not sure I buy the premise. Why would the UW team be any different than any other efficent team when playing a bad defensive team? Why does a team that takes any open shot AND is efficient have a much lesser chance of having better efficiency numbers against a bad defense? In other words, Indiana has just as much likelihood of having a field day efficiency-wise (they are #1 in Off Eff in KenPom) against Northwestern as Bucky, don't they? And, if your line of reasoning is accurate, why doesn't it follow that an efficient defensive team would be able to de-flate their numbers against bad offenses? Plus, I'm pretty sure that KenPom adjusts the efficiencies for the opponents' efficiencies. |
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