PeteFox wrote: Actually, given our horrible percentage from the field, fouling gives about a 56.8% return.  Letting us shoot gives only about 48% (adjusted for 3-point percentage.

Now you're making me put my math geek hat on.  In the double bonus, if we shoot 56.8%, our free throws we get a 56.8% return.  

In a 1-and-1 situation this isn't the case, since there is a 43.2% chance we walk away empty, a 32.2% (.568*.568) chance we get 2 points, and a 24.5% (.568*.432) chance we come away with one point for an average of (0*.432 + 1*.245 + 2*.322=) .890624 points per trip -- only a 44.5% return.  Losing the chance at a second shot really kills us.

I don't know how to factor this in, but I also would think that we are more likely to get an offensive rebound out of offense instead of off of a free throw ... but I guess that might be counter-acted by the 0% chance of committing a turnover at the free throw line (though I hope our guys don't take this as a challenge).

I said ABOUT 56.8%.  In any event there are only a MAXIMUM of 3 one-and-one tries  per half, I felt safe in ignoring the adjustment.

The point is, fouling evey time is a fail proposition (but not by much).