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Posted: 1/17/2013 2:58 PM
Re: CKS gets votes as one of the best X and O coaches in hoops
You may be correct that he has an undeserved reputation as a good X and O's coach, but your estimate is probably not a good measure of that, even if you are close in your estimation. If, for instance, our last possession includes times when we have 5 or fewer seconds to run a play, my guess is that the % of times all teams score in those situations is much lower than normal situations. Also, when we start the possession with the shot clock off, a large part of the possession does not involve looking for a good shot, but depriving the opposing team of a good chance at a shot after your possession. Again I would think that this tends to depress the scoring off all teams, not just VU (and again I am assuming your estimation is in the ballpark - I am also assuming you mean when we are down or tied at the ends of games and don't include cases where we are leading, because in those cases the primary goal is not to score, but to burn off clock and get out with a win, and a lot of the scoring comes from foul shooting as the opponent becomes desparate).
Perhaps a better analysis would be to compare how CKS' teams score at the end of halves compared to other teams. Otherwise the speculation on this particular area is simply that, speculation. For instance, Duke has score twice in it's last possession over the last 10 halves, and zero times at the end of the first half in those five games. The two times they did score was at the end of games when the game was completely decided - two FT's against Davidson and Santa Clara. They have not scored at all during their last possession of any half in any ACC game to date. This is admittedly a small sample size, but it is an actual sample - I would suspect that the actual % of scores at the end of a half is actually a pretty weak correlator of coaching ability. It wouldn't surprise me if someone like coach Cal surpassed Coach K in this regard.
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