roanoke wrote: I do not disagree with you on the fact we could have used the t.o.- in fact, I say, I wish we had called the time-out.
I do think it is very important you know you have a time-out.
I will say CKS called more "flow" or momentum time outs than normal last night.
Truly, with three seconds left, many think it is a draw as to who benefits - a good offense knows the play it is going to run and the d does not. So if the d just clogs up the inbound and sticks to the guy who wants the ball, they are usually ok over three seconds. So I do not mind the lack of the time-out by the d - except that we apparently needed and wanted it and didn't call it. (or the ref did not recognize it) Still, players on the court should know not to give them a free roll the ball up the court - and somebody has to stick to henderson like glue. Again, it is a young team. I do not mind the lack of a time out if we execute the basics. It is never good not to know how many time-outs you have left.... if that is what happened.
And fouling with one second is great if you pull it off just right - but a tip-in is good up to .2 I believe - and given the rebounding on foul shots in that game - there is no way i would have called for a foul there... especially not on Henderson who probably practices perfect misses. If we intentionally foul as henderson releases at one second - we lose that game in regulation. Period.
The foul decision really should come down to mathematical probabilities combined with an a
nalysis of the talent on the floor. The only analysis I have seen was in a SI article from a few years ago. According to that article, up three with under seven seconds the odds are as follows: • A 19 percent chance of getting sent to overtime if you hunker down and play no-fouls defense.
• A 4.9 percent chance of getting sent to overtime if you foul correctly.
• A 0.67 percent chance of going to overtime by accidentally fouling a three-point shooter.
• A 0.13 percent chance of losing in regulation by accidentally fouling the shooter.
• A 0.16 percent chance of losing in regulation off a made first free throw, missed second, offensive rebound and a three.
Fenlon always fouls, because he likes the 1-in-20 odds versus the 1-in-5s.
The article reflects that very good coaches disagree about this, so I don't think it's as simple as 1-in-20 vs. 1-in-5, but the numbers were still interesting. Of course, they confirmed my preconceived bias too. I also believe that the percentages would even more starkly favor fouling under three seconds than under seven seconds.
While Ole Miss had an advantage inside, I'd like to think our bigs are capable of either getting the rebound or at least preventing a tying basket in under two seconds. I'd be supporting Coach Stallings if our team fouled and the game still ended up going to OT.