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The how many wins 4 VU thread?

  • bek7567
  • VandyManiac
  • 11599 posts this site
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Posted: 7/7/2014 12:53 AM

The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


10: Peach Bowl-- the logical next step baby. biggrin

No, I'm not kidding. I think we could. The SEC should be down by their standards this year; everybody has young and/or crappy qbs.

I do think we have a good chance this year to make some noise. The schedule sets up great (knock on wood), imo.

We'll see. Our defense should be stout inder CDM. Our stable of backs is good-- that should be our strong point, and from the spring game I thought the tight ends looked really good, too.

Be hard to replace Matthews, of course, yet stranger things have happened. wink

"Never make someone a priority when all you are to them is an option."

---Maya Angelou (RIP)




Last edited 7/7/2014 7:09 AM by bek7567

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Posted: 7/7/2014 5:16 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


I think 7 or 8 at least and I'm hoping for more. Easiest schedule we've had in years.
Before the the first game on Dudley field in 1922 against Michigan, Dan Mcgugin addressed his team. "You are going against Yankees, some of whose grandfathers killed your grandfathers in the Civil War". It is not known if the players knew Mcgugins father was an officer In the Union army.
.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 5:54 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


10, SEC Championship appearance.

Bek, while I have not always agreed with your beverage selection, you are spot-on HERE.

Well done.

Last edited 7/7/2014 5:54 AM by FormidableDORES

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Posted: 7/7/2014 7:42 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


I am thinking 8.  We may step back a tad just because we lost so many people last year.  But 8 wins would still get me traveling near New Year's day.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 7:47 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


7. Will be happy with 6 but also recognize that this is about as favorable a schedule as a team in the SEC could have.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 8:04 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


I'm thinking 7 but could see 6 or 8 depending on whether or not someone steps up as a weapon on offense. If we don't establish threats on offense though we will be in for a long season. I think a lot of people on this board underestimate the impact of losing JMatt will have on the offense.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 8:47 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


My prediction is 8, maybe 9 wins. I think we need to look at this as a CDM team, we know the former poach had trouble with the big 3 in the east only beating an injury plagued Georgia team and a 34-yr low Florida last year. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Mason takes down one of them in his first year. I see 6 wins as the floor with 4 non-conf wins plus KY & UTjr as high probability SEC wins. I see UGA as the lone high probability loss - at their place with likely a healthy team I don't expect much (although you never know we could be the team that benefits from their annual off the field/suspension issues that always seems to keep them from moving into the national championship picture)
OM, MO and MS will be toss up games. The final two SEC games, SC and FL, being the big wildcards. Both could be winnable depending on what has happened up to that point. With Muschamp at Florida anything is possible - they could already be ready to name his replacement by the time we play them or they may be in the mix for the East. SC, as we saw last year, is beatable if you have patience and let the Ole Ball Coach out smart himself. Mason has a decent chance to get a signature win in his first year, and if its early - i.e. SC look out!
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Posted: 7/7/2014 9:14 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


(See my other post "What's our biggest game?" To see why we may be 5--0 going into GA.)
Our toughest game will be in Athens as most of you have said...should we beat GA, we have a a good shot at playing in ATL the first week of Dec. lose to the dawgs and they'll win the SECE tie breaker if we both have only 1 loss...

MO's offense (just like umiss) is 'just what the doctor ordered' for our 3--4 D...plus we have 'business to take care of' due to last year's game...as for Florida, their new OC may eventually do wonders; however, it won't be in 2014...and, again, the offense he's installing is just what Mason's 3--4 D is adept at stopping...missstate has historically beaten us 'in the trenches' but this year we may be just as strong as them on both the O line and D line...

If we have won 8 games (or more) with ut coming to Nashville, I really like our chances...especially if the vols are trying to get their 6th win...

Overall, '10 or more w's in the regular season' is certainly 'within the realm of possibility' and, for one, I'd not be too surprised to see us playing in ATL at season's end...


.

BNV (Brand New Vandy)
Go Ahead, Schedule Us for Homecoming. We Dare You.
Just be like Foster, Jenkins, Rodgers,  Matthews and others of The Word and The Way!!!

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Posted: 7/7/2014 9:48 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


I've missed low 3 straight years, but I'm going to stay conservative and say I will take 6.

New coaches
New QB
New secondary in a league going pass happy

Everyone in our division, except perhaps Missouri, should improve- everyone.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 9:52 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


I am thinking we are in all of our games but come up short on some of them.  7 regular season wins. Decent match up in the bowl will make it 8 wins.
For those of you predicting a SEC Championship appearance, there is a potential for you to make some good money.  Currently at 50/1 odds to win the East behind everyone else including UK at 33/1 odds. eek1

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports...all-futures.jsp
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  • minoadoc
  • Deck hand
  • 374 posts this site

Posted: 7/7/2014 10:15 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


Jmatt is a big loss, I'm hoping that the loss of Carey Spears doesn't hurt us
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Posted: 7/7/2014 10:40 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


Just keep it within reason guys.  People beginning to take us seriously and with the loss of Matthews and a good secondary, we will be in for some tough games.  But, we better start with beating Temple.  They won't be a pushover for us if we don't start fast.
Beat Temple!





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Posted: 7/7/2014 10:59 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


My early gut feeling is 6 wins.  I think if we make a bowl game this year it is a successful season.

Temple - 80% chance of winning
Ole Miss - 35%
Massachusetts - 90%
South Carolina - 15%
@Kentucky - 50%
@Georgia - 15%
Charleston Southern - 90%
@Missouri - 35%
Old Dominion - 90%
Florida - 25%
@Miss St - 40%
Tennessee - 50%
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Posted: 7/7/2014 11:13 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


Upping almost every game about 5% looks about right to me.

Temple - 80% chance of winning
Ole Miss - 40%
Massachusetts - 95%
South Carolina - 20%
@Kentucky - 60%
@Georgia - 20%
Charleston Southern - 95%
@Missouri - 40%
Old Dominion - 95%
Florida - 30%
@Miss St - 45%
Tennessee - 55%
Type38 wrote: My early gut feeling is 6 wins.  I think if we make a bowl game this year it is a successful season.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 11:25 AM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 




Hoping for 6, but that will be no easy task. To me, it all hinges on the Ole Miss game.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 12:07 PM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 



FormidableDORES wrote: 10, SEC Championship appearance.

Bek, while I have not always agreed with your beverage selection, you are spot-on HERE.

Well done.
What % chance do you give Vanderbilt to win each game?
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Posted: 7/7/2014 12:10 PM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 



bek7567 wrote: 10: Peach Bowl-- the logical next step baby. biggrin

No, I'm not kidding. I think we could. The SEC should be down by their standards this year; everybody has young and/or crappy qbs.

I do think we have a good chance this year to make some noise. The schedule sets up great (knock on wood), imo.

We'll see. Our defense should be stout inder CDM. Our stable of backs is good-- that should be our strong point, and from the spring game I thought the tight ends looked really good, too.

Be hard to replace Matthews, of course, yet stranger things have happened. wink
Same as above, what % chance of winning do you give Vanderbilt in each regular season game.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 12:48 PM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 


Temple - 90% chance of winning
Ole Miss - 70%
Massachusetts - 95%
South
Carolina - 55%
@Kentucky - 75%
@Georgia - 51%  I'll be there...I don't go to lose (see Florida, last year).  Don't be surprised if we DOMINATE this game.
Charleston Southern -
98%
@Missouri - 65%  Shoot-out
Old Dominion - 99.99%
Florida - 71% 
@Miss St -
51%  Last second field-goal, for us
Tennessee - 81%  By this time, the fatted-orange will be begging to get into OUR stadium.  And, if they do, they will be complaining about the terrible restroom situation.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 12:58 PM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 



FormidableDORES wrote: Temple - 90% chance of winning
Ole Miss - 70%
Massachusetts - 95%
South
Carolina - 55%
@Kentucky - 75%
@Georgia - 51%  I'll be there...I don't go to lose (see Florida, last year).  Don't be surprised if we DOMINATE this game.
Charleston Southern -
98%
@Missouri - 65%  Shoot-out
Old Dominion - 99.99%
Florida - 71% 
@Miss St -
51%  Last second field-goal, for us
Tennessee - 81%  By this time, the fatted-orange will be begging to get into OUR stadium.  And, if they do, they will be complaining about the terrible restroom situation.
If you're right and are a betting man, you can make some serious $. I daresay in several of your predicted wins we will be an underdog with the oddsmakers. FWIW, I would not want to cover your bets.
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Posted: 7/7/2014 1:21 PM

Re: The how many wins 4 VU thread? 



FormidableDORES wrote: Temple - 90% chance of winning
Ole Miss - 70%
Massachusetts - 95%
South
Carolina - 55%
@Kentucky - 75%
@Georgia - 51%  I'll be there...I don't go to lose (see Florida, last year).  Don't be surprised if we DOMINATE this game.
Charleston Southern -
98%
@Missouri - 65%  Shoot-out
Old Dominion - 99.99%
Florida - 71% 
@Miss St -
51%  Last second field-goal, for us
Tennessee - 81%  By this time, the fatted-orange will be begging to get into OUR stadium.  And, if they do, they will be complaining about the terrible restroom situation.
Your numbers have Vandy winning 9 regular season games (not 10) and going 5-3 in the SEC.  Your numbers also imply that we will be favorites against South Carolina and @Georgia...both of which are very unlikely.

I am curious why you are giving Vanderbilt a 71% chance of beating Florida.  The early betting lines have Florida as a 9 point favorite (Golden Nugget) which translates into the betting market giving Vanderbilt a 22% chance of winning.  That is quite a difference.

Similarly, early lines have Vanderbilt as a 24 point underdog (Golden Nugget) to Georgia which means that the betting market is giving Vanderbilt a 10% chance of winning...yet you have Vandy at 51%.  Wow.  Then you double down and say we might DOMINATE a game that your winning % says is a coin flip.

Also, Tennessee is an early 3 point favorite (Golden Nugget) which means that the betting market is giving Vanderbilt a 41% chance of winning.  You are giving Vanderbilt an 81% chance of winning.
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