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Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan

Posted: 11/20/2012 3:01 PM

Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 


I dont believe in stats...i believe in my eyes.

I think this game is very close matchup but UCLA has a very very good defense.
Better than the one Oregon has and thats the advantage.

Stats are Bull in College Football so let me give you and example.

UCLA only recorded 1 sack on u$c
$c had at least 5 sacks. 

But watch the game and you would notice Brett Hundley going down on purpose and not taking a hit. Barkley took hit after hit even though he go rid of the ball and avoided a sack, this helped hurry throws leading to poor qb play....see the difference.

Season long stats are really Bull because they count all of your opponents and thats irrelevant late in the year. 

UCLA and Stanford have very close levels of talent on defense. If UCLA ran the slow down offense that Stanford runs the numbers would be very close.
Ucla puts their defense on the field more and has had to learn a new defensive scheme. They are finally hitting their stride. 

Fans hate to be told what stats matter and which ones dont. But college football deserves the same stat treatment that we give Major League Baseball.
I.E. Day game vs night game, Cold weather vs Warm weather.

If the weather is warm and sunny this Saturday UCLA should be the better team in all three phases. Hurry up offensive teams from warm weather locations are difficult to beat. Stanford has played in cold weather night games and done very well. Muscles dont fire the same for spread teams at night, plus the mental toughness in the cold cant be underestimated.

I could talk about position by position battles but that doesnt matter. These teams are very close everywhere. 
Stanford will have to hit some big plays on Offense or this game wont be close. I think it will be close though.

Ucla will get a score from special teams.
UCLA 27 Stan 20
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:08 PM

You lost to kal; end of discussion 


How long were your eyeballs able to handle that?

 

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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:12 PM

RE: Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 


months ago doesnt matter

The superbowl champion NY Giants had some ugly losses too but got hot at the right time.

Cmon man
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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:18 PM

RE: Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 



dodgers2009 wrote: months ago doesnt matter

The superbowl champion NY Giants had some ugly losses too but got hot at the right time.

Cmon man
Alright then, what about your offense makes you think you will have more success than the Ducks did?  Do you think you will be +2 in turnovers? How does your defense keep contain on Hogan while still effectively covering Zach Ertz?

 

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Posted: 11/20/2012 3:44 PM

RE: Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 


The ducks are very different from UCLA. ORE runs the QB Mariota wayyy more, Brett hundley is more of a passer looking to attack the Stanford secondary constantly. ORE runs the football almost 2 to 1 ratio on the year and the passes in that offense are all based of the play action...like Vine young and Texas but in a hurry with fast hybrid wr/rb playmakers.

UCLA is more of a balanced version of the Air raid offfense. passing and rushing almost equally...very difficult to handle.

UCLA uses a big talented Tight end as well so they practice against a guy like him all the time:/ That doesnt mean he wont be open the question is can his QB find him under pressure.

UCLA on defense gets a lot of pressure on the qb...not always a sack but constant pressure. QBHogan has missed a lot of throws and isnt extremely accurate when hurried. Plus every young QB has a bad game(*hundley vs cal)...its a matter of when not if. Hogan will have a game like that eventually, not saying itll be this weekend but itll happen.

UCLA has a ton of very special players on defense so does Stanford...UCLA's players arent as well known but that doesnt change their talent level. It doesnt mean the defense will get turnovers but Stanford on offense played poorly against a banged up(and small) Ducks defense barely scoring 14 points.

If youre honest UCLA's Defense is playing its best lately...especially at home.

P.S. Wash St was a wierd game with a warm weather team (UCLA) playing in 20 degree cold lol
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:05 PM

RE: Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 


1) Hogan's completion %age would rank 1st in P12, if he had enough attempts.
2) you disrespect Oregon's defense.  their linebackers, Alonso and Clay, are at least as good as Stanford's Thomas, Skov, Murphy, Tarpley, Vaughters.  Ekpre is an outstanding DB, caused two fumbles, and *almost* succeeded in breaking up the TD pass to Ertz.  **if** you win (and I don't think you will), you will have to face them.  I remind you to re-watch the Oregon-Arizona game, and see how Alioto's troops play at home against a strong spread-offense team.
3) we don't have great WRs.  a lot of your 'talent' on D is at DB, where speed counts.  it will be wasted.  instead, they'll be called on to defend against Ertz, Toilolo, and Hewitt, and tackle Taylor and Young in space.  covering tall receivers, and tackling big backs in space, is the weakest point for any DBs, yours included.  (which, BTW, is why Franklin is an asset for UCLA.)

I have this game in the 20s for both teams.  you're a lot like Oregon State on both sides of the ball.  the relative scrambling abilities of Hundley vs. Hogan will be critical to the outcome.  comparative scores put you at a distinct disadvantage, but usually that doesn't amount to much as a predictor.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:16 PM

RE: Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 


So you think that bcuz Hogan has been good for this small sample size that he would be the best lol
Wait till the leaugue learns him before you say that he'd be "number 1"
He has a lot of talent but he only has a few starts under his belt.

youre dead wrong about UCLA defense lol
UCLA runs a 3-4 defense Oregon st 4-3

The UCLA front 7 is where the most talent is.
DL SrDatone Jones 4star
DL JrCassisus Marsh 4star
DL JrOwamagbe Odighizuwa 5star

UCLA linebackers are fast and talented LB Anthony Barr lead the conference in QB knockouts lol
LB Eric Kendrick has been defensive Pac 12 player of the week twice in about a month lol and Barr had the other one with Stanfords Shane Scov taking the other one. My favorite UCLA linebacker is  jr Jordan Zumwalt 4 star a tackling machine.

Plus ORE had true freshman on the defensive line a safety missing for the season

Cmon man

Last edited 11/20/2012 4:25 PM by dodgers2009

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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:35 PM

Re: Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 



dodgers2009 wrote:

UCLA and Stanford have very close levels of talent on defense. If UCLA ran the slow down offense that Stanford runs the numbers would be very close.
Ucla puts their defense on the field more and has had to learn a new defensive scheme.
Sorry, that's just not the case.

UCLA's defense has been on the field for 823 plays, compared to 793 plays for Stanford's defense. That's a difference of just 30 plays, spread over 11 games. Not much difference. Certainly not enough to explain Stanford's statistical advantage on defense.

In any event, if you look at the stats on a per-play basis, Stanford's defense still has a clear statistical advantage:

                                           Stanford  UCLA
Yards allowed per rush attempt    2.4    4.0
Yards allowed per pass attempt   6.1    7.1

Last edited 11/20/2012 4:36 PM by terry2

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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:41 PM

RE: Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 


To paraphrase, recent stats are much more meaningful than season-long statistics when they say what you want them to say; when they say something else, they're meaningless.

Thanks for that.


dodgers2009 wrote: So you think that bcuz Hogan has been good for this small sample size that he would be the best lol
Wait till the leaugue learns him before you say that he'd be "number 1"
He has a lot of talent but he only has a few starts under his belt.

youre dead wrong about UCLA defense lol
UCLA runs a 3-4 defense Oregon st 4-3

The UCLA front 7 is where the most talent is.
DL SrDatone Jones 4star
DL JrCassisus Marsh 4star
DL JrOwamagbe Odighizuwa 5star

UCLA linebackers are fast and talented LB Anthony Barr lead the conference in QB knockouts lol
LB Eric Kendrick has been defensive Pac 12 player of the week twice in about a month lol and Barr had the other one with Stanfords Shane Scov taking the other one. My favorite UCLA linebacker is  jr Jordan Zumwalt 4 star a tackling machine.

Plus ORE had true freshman on the defensive line a safety missing for the season

Cmon man
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:41 PM

RE: Early thoughts from a Bruin Fan 


Well Dodger, you talk a good game but the game has to e played on the field. By the way, did you guys play Oregon and if so, how did that come out?
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:49 PM

Terry2 


remember what i said in the beginning this is the first year in a new scheme 

the entire season totals aren't valid.

UCLA defensive players are just hitting their stride with the defense.

Last edited 11/20/2012 4:51 PM by dodgers2009

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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:54 PM

Re: Terry2 


I kinda like the idea of Hundley falling down in the face of the rush. That should work well Saturday.
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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:55 PM

Trigonom tree 


When should the stats matter?? remember i said I use my eyes...I picked the Packers win they won the superbowl just bcuz they started ballin in the playoffs...doesnt that make sense.

Football teams should be evaluted in 2-3 week periods only. Anything more is irrelevant. Teams change too quickly.

Last edited 11/20/2012 5:01 PM by dodgers2009

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Posted: 11/20/2012 4:58 PM

Re: Terry2 



tmf79 wrote: I kinda like the idea of Hundley falling down in the face of the rush. That should work well Saturday.
Its worked, he hasnt taken a big hit all year and he's always cool under pressure check the film. He only goes down bcuz he knows the defense won that play. But thats after he buys A LOT of time with his legs in the pocket trying to find the open man.

Last edited 11/20/2012 4:59 PM by dodgers2009

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Posted: 11/20/2012 10:37 PM

Re: You lost to kal; end of discussion 


We did get blown out by Cal not too long ago. Can you please take it easy on us? Feel free to play your second- and third-string guys. :-) 
TreeBoy wrote: How long were your eyeballs able to handle that?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winning is not everything ... It is the ONLY thing!

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Posted: 11/20/2012 11:12 PM

if dodger is using his eyes 


then they don't work very well.  I can recommend a couple of docs at the UCLA medical center, if you're interested.
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Posted: 11/21/2012 12:24 AM

Re: if dodger is using his eyes 



mendicant98 wrote: then they don't work very well.  I can recommend a couple of docs at the UCLA medical center, if you're interested.
I picked a close game for Stanford vs ORE 

Most people didnt have you guys even in the game
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Posted: 11/21/2012 5:38 AM

Re: Trigonom tree 



dodgers2009 wrote: When should the stats matter?? remember i said I use my eyes...I picked the Packers win they won the superbowl just bcuz they started ballin in the playoffs...doesnt that make sense.

Football teams should be evaluted in 2-3 week periods only. Anything more is irrelevant. Teams change too quickly.
If that's the case, then why are you dismissing Hogan's stats over the last 2-3 weeks?

Use your eyes, if you want, but be consistent in your argument.
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Posted: 11/21/2012 10:03 AM

Re: Trigonom tree 



TrigonomeTree wrote:
dodgers2009 wrote: When should the stats matter?? remember i said I use my eyes...I picked the Packers win they won the superbowl just bcuz they started ballin in the playoffs...doesnt that make sense.

Football teams should be evaluted in 2-3 week periods only. Anything more is irrelevant. Teams change too quickly.
If that's the case, then why are you dismissing Hogan's stats over the last 2-3 weeks?

Use your eyes, if you want, but be consistent in your argument.
I am, I said the kid(QB Hogan) has a lot of talent but dont act like he's Peyton Manning in these few starts lol

He has been given very little to digest on offense and has done well with it. 
Be honest with yourself a bit and admit he still has growing pains on the way. 

And please remember I didnt say he was a scrub and couldnt play. I said this is going to be a close game. picking UCLA to win by 7 isnt dissing him or the Cardnal.

It could go either way but i like
UCLA's Offense much better than Stanford Offense
UCLA's Defense playing its best ball right now
And UCLA's SP. Teams is ridiculously great right now. 3 blocked punts and 3 blocked Feild goals, zero misses from the kicker in about a month and zero kick returns or punt returns for td's maybe all year. I can't remember when the last time they made a mistake.

I love the NFL and the NFL has taught me to pick the "HOT" team and be honest who is the hottest team in the Pac 12 right now? UCLA

Last edited 11/21/2012 10:04 AM by dodgers2009

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Posted: 11/21/2012 11:49 AM

Re: Trigonom tree 




---------------------------------------------
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I love the NFL and the NFL has taught me to pick the "HOT" team and be honest who is the hottest team in the Pac 12 right now? UCLA

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Now you're just trolling.
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