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RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread

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Posted: 2/17/2013 10:51 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 




---------------------------------------------
--- adamant wrote:

Wow - a close win - and we lost 4 spots RPI , 5 spots Sagarin - and 9 spots Pomeroy.

Interesting - a few more wins like that and we will drop off the map :)

GO PACK!!! BEAT FSU!!!!

---------------------------------------------

Imagine what a loss would have done. Unfortunately our shedule is backloaded with bottom feeders, so we aren't going to be making big jumps up in the RPI. Win out and we rejoin the polls however.
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Posted: 2/17/2013 10:52 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Yep. We just have to win. Simple as that.

We've entered our UVA section of the schedule.
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Posted: 2/17/2013 11:23 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Exactly.  UConn negated their win over Syracuse with that clunker yesterday.
boomerwolf wrote: Teams like UConn, Duke, and Stanford lost. That doesn't help
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Posted: 2/17/2013 11:34 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



adamant wrote: After Saturday 2/16/2013 games :

RPI #22
Sagarin #26
Pomeroy #43

None of those rating systems liked our OT win over a bottom feeder Vatech!

GO PACK!!! BEAT FSU!!!!
RPI would have been exactly the same even if we had won by 40.  Margin of victory isn't factored in at all.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 9:36 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


True for RPI - but Pomeroy definitely takes into account MOV - and that is why we slipped to the 40's on that chart.

GO PACK!!!! BEAT FSU!!!!
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Posted: 2/18/2013 9:45 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



adamant wrote: True for RPI - but Pomeroy definitely takes into account MOV - and that is why we slipped to the 40's on that chart.

GO PACK!!!! BEAT FSU!!!!

.....and the selection committe puts the least amount of weight on the Pomeroy.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 9:46 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



WOLFDAC wrote:
adamant wrote: True for RPI - but Pomeroy definitely takes into account MOV - and that is why we slipped to the 40's on that chart.

GO PACK!!!! BEAT FSU!!!!

.....and the selection committe puts the least amount of weight on the Pomeroy.

I've never even heard the Pomeroy ratings mentioned by the selection committee.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 9:49 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



grantwolf wrote:
WOLFDAC wrote:
adamant wrote: True for RPI - but Pomeroy definitely takes into account MOV - and that is why we slipped to the 40's on that chart.

GO PACK!!!! BEAT FSU!!!!

.....and the selection committe puts the least amount of weight on the Pomeroy.

I've never even heard the Pomeroy ratings mentioned by the selection committee.
It could be "zilch".
Life long Wolfpack Fan....Alumni Class of 1989

The Wolves are on The Road.

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Posted: 2/18/2013 9:57 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


On the CBS college basketball podcast last week, they had onJerry Palm (their brackets guy) who has done one of the mock selection things that the NCAA does with the press. He said that officially look only at rpi and not kenpom or sagar in, or bpi or whatever. They are allowed to look at whatever they want but the only official number is rpi.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 10:15 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


This is a travesty considering that the kenpom ratings have substantially better predictive value than the RPI. Additionally, margin of victory is known to be not only incredibly important but an exceptional predictor of future victories. 
boomerwolf wrote: On the CBS college basketball podcast last week, they had onJerry Palm (their brackets guy) who has done one of the mock selection things that the NCAA does with the press. He said that officially look only at rpi and not kenpom or sagar in, or bpi or whatever. They are allowed to look at whatever they want but the only official number is rpi.
http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/k en-pomeroy-college-basketball-statistics-guru-make s-sense-of-unpredictable-world-020513

How dependable is his system? In 2008, before the NCAA tournament began, he calculated that eventual champion Kansas was the top team in the country and eventual runner-up Memphis was second-best. In 2010, eventual national champion Duke sat atop Pomeroy’s rankings much of the season.

Last edited 2/18/2013 1:08 PM by fortheloveofsports

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Posted: 2/18/2013 10:32 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


He didn't say people couldn't bring other stuff to the table like pomeroy but the rpi is the only number that is officially given to the committee.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 10:13 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Looking at the Massey Ratings site, a compilation/analysis of different ranking system models . . . Pomeroy's model did really well early in the season, but the last couple weeks has been middling.

Be interesting to see if it predicts any better down the stretch.
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Posted: 2/18/2013 11:52 PM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Re: Massey's ratings compilation, through Feb 17, our Mean rating of all the organizations was 30.76. A week ago we were 27.8.  Median is now 29 and was 26 last week.   Notably, last week 6 of the rating services has us ranked better than 20th.  This week only one, and they have us as 20 rated.

Source:    www.masseyratings.com
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Posted: 2/19/2013 9:28 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


dancecard now updated through Sunday's games (2-17-2013) :

ACC teams IN (top 50) :

#1 Duke
#6 Miami
#26 NCSU
#39 UNC-CHeat
#48 UVA

teams OUT :

#52 MD (note #54 is ASU :))
#61 FSU (they really need a top 50 win - we need to deny them that - twice - in the next few games)
#102 GaTech
#107 Clemson (soooo glad we swept them - if barely)
#141 Wake Forest (our worst loss - and hopefully will stay our worst loss)
#146 BC
#158 Vatech (whewwwww!)

GO PACK!!! BEAT FSU!!!!!
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Posted: 2/19/2013 11:15 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


#20 RPI after tonight
"He pulled out too quick"
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Posted: 2/20/2013 6:16 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


After our game against FSU (HAMMMERED!) -

RPI #21 (UNC-CHeat - our next game on Sat at the Heill) #26
Pomeroy #42 - CHeats #33
Sagarin #24 - CHeats #20

Wow - The CHeats have passed us in 2 of the 3 indicators (still well behind in Danceard through Sunday's games).

We really need to beat them in CHeater Hill Saturday - I want to see the same game we had in Raleigh - minus the comeback - put them down by 19 at the half and NEVER let up!

GO PACK!!! BEAT THE CHEATS!!!
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Posted: 2/20/2013 8:41 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Does the selection committee seed more based on RPI?
I believe the children are our future Teach them well and let them lead the way
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Posted: 2/20/2013 8:43 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



SexualChocolate wrote: Does the selection committee seed more based on RPI?

Yes, RPI and SOS are the two main formulas, but they can bring up anyhting during the selection process.
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Posted: 2/20/2013 9:36 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



adamant wrote: dancecard now updated through Sunday's games (2-17-2013) :

ACC teams IN (top 50) :

#1 Duke
#6 Miami
#26 NCSU
#39 UNC-CHeat
#48 UVA

teams OUT :

#52 MD (note #54 is ASU :))
#61 FSU (they really need a top 50 win - we need to deny them that - twice - in the next few games)
#102 GaTech
#107 Clemson (soooo glad we swept them - if barely)
#141 Wake Forest (our worst loss - and hopefully will stay our worst loss)
#146 BC
#158 Vatech (whewwwww!)

GO PACK!!! BEAT FSU!!!!!
Sendek is in a day-tight bubble.

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Posted: 2/20/2013 10:04 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


UNC is good (much better than earlier in the season), and is no longer a bubble team IMHO.  UVA has work to do to make it in.
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Posted: 2/20/2013 11:12 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



grantwolf wrote: UNC is good (much better than earlier in the season), and is no longer a bubble team IMHO.  UVA has work to do to make it in.
And yet they still have only one top 50 RPI win - UNLV at home.  UNC has made a living off beating the average to bad teams on their schedule.  (Something State could learn a thing or two about.)  UNC has lost to every good team they have played and been blown out of most of those games.

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Posted: 2/20/2013 11:22 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



RedLight wrote:
grantwolf wrote: UNC is good (much better than earlier in the season), and is no longer a bubble team IMHO.  UVA has work to do to make it in.
And yet they still have only one top 50 RPI win - UNLV at home.  UNC has made a living off beating the average to bad teams on their schedule.  (Something State could learn a thing or two about.)  UNC has lost to every good team they have played and been blown out of most of those games.
That's why their game vs us is so huge. If they lose they will still have a solid RPI but an absolutely repulsive resume outside of that. I still think they get in but their lack of any signature wins (and only a pair of quality wins) will really hurt their seeding.
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Posted: 2/20/2013 11:39 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



RedLight wrote:
grantwolf wrote: UNC is good (much better than earlier in the season), and is no longer a bubble team IMHO.  UVA has work to do to make it in.
And yet they still have only one top 50 RPI win - UNLV at home.  UNC has made a living off beating the average to bad teams on their schedule.  (Something State could learn a thing or two about.)  UNC has lost to every good team they have played and been blown out of most of those games.
Exactly. They have 4 wins against RPI top 100.

They may get in, but if we beat them Saturday, they need to win out to be sure of getting a bid. They still have games at clemson and maryland along with fsu and dook in hell.

They're a bubble team until they prove otherwise. They almost have to beat us, or dook to get an at-large.

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Posted: 2/20/2013 11:41 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



wulfpackbaseball9 wrote:
RedLight wrote:
grantwolf wrote: UNC is good (much better than earlier in the season), and is no longer a bubble team IMHO.  UVA has work to do to make it in.
And yet they still have only one top 50 RPI win - UNLV at home.  UNC has made a living off beating the average to bad teams on their schedule.  (Something State could learn a thing or two about.)  UNC has lost to every good team they have played and been blown out of most of those games.
Exactly. They have 4 wins against RPI top 100.

They may get in, but if we beat them Saturday, they need to win out to be sure of getting a bid. They still have games at clemson and maryland along with fsu and dook in hell.

They're a bubble team until they prove otherwise. They almost have to beat us, or dook to get an at-large.
They'll probably win both
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Posted: 2/20/2013 11:53 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


^Maybe they beat us, maybe they don't.

They're a weak team, and if we come to play we'll stomp them.

If we don't, we'll get an L, and possibly a bad one.

They are as one-dimensional as it gets. If they nail 37%> 3s they can beat a lot of teams, if they jack up a bunch and flail like last night, the only thing that saves them is they play GT, or a team that masquerades as GT.

"Every single day, in every walk of life, ordinary people do extraordinary things.!!"

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Posted: 2/20/2013 12:03 PM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



wulfpackbaseball9 wrote: ^Maybe they beat us, maybe they don't.

They're a weak team, and if we come to play we'll stomp them.

If we don't, we'll get an L, and possibly a bad one.

They are as one-dimensional as it gets. If they nail 37%> 3s they can beat a lot of teams, if they jack up a bunch and flail like last night, the only thing that saves them is they play GT, or a team that masquerades as GT.
The Cheat are pretty damn good on their homecourt. I think they've lost once at home and that was to the 2nd ranked team in the country. Contrary to the belief, the deandome is very loud and intimidating.I would bet they're favored over both us and Duke at home
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Posted: 2/21/2013 9:29 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Through Wed 2-20-2013 games :

RPI #23
Sagarin #23
Pomeroy #40

GO PACK!!!! BEAT THE CHEATS!!!!
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Posted: 2/21/2013 11:30 AM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


No ACC team with an above .500 record in the league, coupled with an RPI of 40 or better has ever been left out of the Tourney, and UNC certainly isn't going to be the first.  With an RPI of 25, and an 8-5 ACC record, it's foolish to think that they are a bubble team.
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Last edited 2/21/2013 11:38 AM by grantwolf

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Posted: 2/21/2013 10:40 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Checked realtime rpi tonight and we moved up to #20
"He pulled out too quick"
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Posted: 2/21/2013 10:57 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


But we're a bubble team according to Duke-VT announcer
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Posted: 2/22/2013 6:00 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Through Sunday's games (last time Dancecard updated) 2-17-2013 we are #26 - far far far from the bubble - UNC-CHeat was at 39 - 11 away from the cutoff of 50.

We are listed as 99.85% IN (if the season ended on Sunday 2-17) and the CHeats at 85.98% so neither of us has anything to do with any bubble right now.

GO PACK!!! BEAT THE CHEATS!!!!!!!!!!
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Posted: 2/24/2013 8:59 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


After the game in Cheater Hell :

RPI #26
Pomeroy #44
Sagarin #26
Dancecard (updated through Thursday 2-21-2013 games ) : #24 - should not drop much from one loss.


We are in good position still to finish strong (4 games against 4 of the worst teams in the conference - and both away games are against the 2 teams we beat by double digits at home).

Win out to 12-6 and I think we might still avoid ACCT Thursday - if we finish 4th seed we have as good a shot as anyone to win the ACCT.

GO PACK!!! BEAT BC!!!!!!!

I liked our rebounding - our hustle - we just cannot turn the ball over like that and expect to win - plus ft's fell off again. Fix the ft's - stop turning the ball over (more of Lewis/Brown at the same time might help) and keep fighting - we will be a tough out in the postseason.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 1:55 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



adamant wrote:  Fix the ft's - stop turning the ball over (more of Lewis/Brown at the same time might help) and keep fighting - we will be a tough out in the postseason.
That's been the rally cry all season. What makes you think it will happen when 27 games in it hasn't?
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Posted: 2/24/2013 3:08 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



48wolfpacker wrote:
adamant wrote:  Fix the ft's - stop turning the ball over (more of Lewis/Brown at the same time might help) and keep fighting - we will be a tough out in the postseason.
That's been the rally cry all season. What makes you think it will happen when 27 games in it hasn't?

hmm - let's see - we are 8-6 in the ACC (not a losing record and 4 winnable games left) - we have not generally turned the ball over that much  - some games yes - other games we have not.

We have shot well from the floor most of the season - but still hit cold spells - we have played well in terms of getting to the free throw line - some games we hit them - some we don't (at least 2 or 3 losses JUST from missing free throws at a rate that is below our average for the season).

In short (too late!) we have not done "one wrong thing" all season - we have had good games in every aspect - and bad games in all aspects - mostly we have some good things and some bad things and mostly we have won or come very close (only a few double digit losses).

We don't have to fix everything all at once - just emphasize the things we have done well most of the season while working on things we have had trouble with (but even free throws and turnovers have been good in some games - not bad all year long).

We are not so far away from exactly where we need to be - gelling and coming together just in time for a big NCAA run (and hopefully for a late season surge to get 4th or better seeding in the ACCT and a run in that as well).

GO PACK!!! BEAT BC!!!!

All of our important goals are still in reach - winning the ACC and making it deep into the NCAA's.



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Posted: 2/24/2013 3:11 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



adamant wrote:
48wolfpacker wrote:
adamant wrote:  Fix the ft's - stop turning the ball over (more of Lewis/Brown at the same time might help) and keep fighting - we will be a tough out in the postseason.
That's been the rally cry all season. What makes you think it will happen when 27 games in it hasn't?

hmm - let's see - we are 8-6 in the ACC (not a losing record and 4 winnable games left) - we have not generally turned the ball over that much  - some games yes - other games we have not.

We have shot well from the floor most of the season - but still hit cold spells - we have played well in terms of getting to the free throw line - some games we hit them - some we don't (at least 2 or 3 losses JUST from missing free throws at a rate that is below our average for the season).

In short (too late!) we have not done "one wrong thing" all season - we have had good games in every aspect - and bad games in all aspects - mostly we have some good things and some bad things and mostly we have won or come very close (only a few double digit losses).

We don't have to fix everything all at once - just emphasize the things we have done well most of the season while working on things we have had trouble with (but even free throws and turnovers have been good in some games - not bad all year long).

We are not so far away from exactly where we need to be - gelling and coming together just in time for a big NCAA run (and hopefully for a late season surge to get 4th or better seeding in the ACCT and a run in that as well).

GO PACK!!! BEAT BC!!!!

All of our important goals are still in reach - winning the ACC and making it deep into the NCAA's.



Everyone's goal is still within reach until they lose in the ACCT.
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Posted: 2/24/2013 3:18 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 



48wolfpacker wrote:
adamant wrote:
48wolfpacker wrote:
adamant wrote:  Fix the ft's - stop turning the ball over (more of Lewis/Brown at the same time might help) and keep fighting - we will be a tough out in the postseason.
That's been the rally cry all season. What makes you think it will happen when 27 games in it hasn't?

hmm - let's see - we are 8-6 in the ACC (not a losing record and 4 winnable games left) - we have not generally turned the ball over that much  - some games yes - other games we have not.

We have shot well from the floor most of the season - but still hit cold spells - we have played well in terms of getting to the free throw line - some games we hit them - some we don't (at least 2 or 3 losses JUST from missing free throws at a rate that is below our average for the season).

In short (too late!) we have not done "one wrong thing" all season - we have had good games in every aspect - and bad games in all aspects - mostly we have some good things and some bad things and mostly we have won or come very close (only a few double digit losses).

We don't have to fix everything all at once - just emphasize the things we have done well most of the season while working on things we have had trouble with (but even free throws and turnovers have been good in some games - not bad all year long).

We are not so far away from exactly where we need to be - gelling and coming together just in time for a big NCAA run (and hopefully for a late season surge to get 4th or better seeding in the ACCT and a run in that as well).

GO PACK!!! BEAT BC!!!!

All of our important goals are still in reach - winning the ACC and making it deep into the NCAA's.



Everyone's goal is still within reach until they lose in the ACCT.

That's correct. However the reach of any team that has to start the ACCT on Thursday is not going to be very long. We have come closest to doing that 4 games in 4 days deal - and both times came up tired in the final.

We really need to get into the top 4 if we have a good shot at winning the ACC this year.

And we can still do it. Starting with BC at home.

GO PACK!!!

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Posted: 2/25/2013 12:20 PM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


The 11:30PM Sun, Feb 23 CBS bracket has Pack a 9 seed and Carolina a 10 seed.

Today's Massey page of 35 rating services has the Pack as 35 and Carolina as a 34.  Those rankings would make the 9 and 10 seed accurate.

However everyone says the NCAA uses the RPI exclusively at the 25 and 20 levels which would suggest 6 and 7 seeds.
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Posted: 2/25/2013 12:47 PM

Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


CBS also says 5 MWC teams and 7 A10 teams will make it.  THat seems rediculous to me, especially SEVEN Atlantic 10 teams.
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Posted: 2/25/2013 2:08 PM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


New Dancecard ratings out through Sunday's games 2/24/2013 :

ACC members IN :

#2 Duke
#11 Miami
#31 NCSU (still 3rd for Dancecard)
#34 UNC-CHeat
#49 UVA (50 is last in)

----------------------OUT------------------------- ------------------

#60 MD (need to beat the CHeats to have any chance)
#82 FSU (loss to Hokies really hurt) (should win for us even away)
#114 Wake (beating Miami moved them a bit) (must win for us)
#115 Clemson
#123 Gtech (must win for us)
#142 BC (must win for us)
#158 Vatech

Note also that out in the dessert the Herbble is imploding - down to #61 now at ASU.
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Posted: 2/27/2013 8:36 AM

RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread 


Through Tuesday 2-26-2013 games :

RPI #25 (still projecting us to finish 11-7 ACC)
Pomeroy #45 (wow - usually by this time of year our Sagarin and Pomeroy are converging with each other - not this year)
Sagarin #25

GO PACK!!! BEAT BC!!!!!
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