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Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
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Posted: 1/13/2013 12:23 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
If you "freeze" the Jeff Sagarin rankings right now, he has us:
losing home or away to Duke
losing away to Miami
winning every other game, home or away.
Which means Sagarin predicts that Duke finishes 17-1, and State finishes 17-1, since we don't play @Miami this year. We'd be 1-1 head to head and undefeated otherwise, so the #1 seed tiebreaker is a coin flip.
Of course, the odds that State finishes the ACC conference with one lose to Duke and that Duke goes undefeated for the rest of the regular season is really, really small.
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Posted: 1/13/2013 1:25 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
After our win against Duke!!!! :
RPI #11 (Duke still #1) (projected ACC record now 13-5)
Pomeroy #29 - still does not like us :)
Sagarin #17
GO PACK!!! BEAT MD!!!
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Posted: 1/13/2013 1:38 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
stomv wrote: If you "freeze" the Jeff Sagarin rankings right now, he has us:
losing home or away to Duke
losing away to Miami
winning every other game, home or away.
Which means Sagarin predicts that Duke finishes 17-1, and State finishes 17-1, since we don't play @Miami this year. We'd be 1-1 head to head and undefeated otherwise, so the #1 seed tiebreaker is a coin flip.
Of course, the odds that State finishes the ACC conference with one lose to Duke and that Duke goes undefeated for the rest of the regular season is really, really small. Until I don't see a wtf loss, I will expect one. That being said, I think Md, UNC, Miami and Duke could all lay a loss on us if we have foul trouble. I like the athletic type.
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Posted: 1/13/2013 1:40 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Contrary to our fans' belief, the numbers indicate we have a pretty damn good team.
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Posted: 1/13/2013 11:13 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
In the Massey Ratings, the W over Duke moved State up 10 spots to #12 today. His predicted scores show State favored in all games but the one in Cameron. CBS's Top 25 (and one) moves State up to 15th this week.
"I think myself that we have more machinery of government than is necessary, too many parasites living on the labor of the industrious."
--Thomas Jefferson, 1824
Last edited 1/14/2013 12:05 PM by mwp99
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Posted: 1/14/2013 2:10 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
adamant wrote: After our win against Duke!!!! :
RPI #11 (Duke still #1) (projected ACC record now 13-5)
Pomeroy #29 - still does not like us :)
Sagarin #17
GO PACK!!! BEAT MD!!! I think his rankings are indicative of our lack of defensive intensity in games outside of yesterday's game. If we played every game with the same intensity as we did that Duke game, we'd be a lot higher on KenPom. I think a lot of it has to do with our 6 man rotation, but I'd still love to see that intensity in every game.
Verbal Commits"A great resource for those into tracking tomorrow's players today." - Adam Biggers, Yahoo! Sports
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Posted: 1/14/2013 7:33 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
As of games through Sunday Jan 13th :
RPI #12
Sagarin #18
Pomeroy #28
Funny - Sunday's games (we did not play) pushed us down one in Sagarin and RPI but up one in Pomeroy.
GO PACK!!! BEAT MD!!!!!!
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Posted: 1/14/2013 10:09 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Man, I want a number two seed in the tourney!
The truth is you're the weak. And I'm the tyranny of evil men. But I'm tryin', Ringo. I'm tryin' real hard to be a shepherd.
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Posted: 1/14/2013 12:43 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
PackCaddy wrote: Man, I want a number two seed in the tourney! Why shoot so low? I want a #1 seed. |
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Posted: 1/14/2013 12:47 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Louisville @ UConn tonight.
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Posted: 1/14/2013 1:08 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
dpanther wrote: Louisville @ UConn tonight. Go Huskies!!!!!!!! |
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- DubPack
- Bench Warmer
- 1898 posts this site
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Posted: 1/15/2013 12:48 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
I know RPI is based on the formula, but it's amazing to be Miami can have RPI #5 with losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State
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Posted: 1/15/2013 12:55 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
DubPack wrote: I know RPI is based on the formula, but it's amazing to be Miami can have RPI #5 with losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State Their RPI would be exactly the same if they had lost to Michigan State and Maryland instead. _____________________
Did I just blow your mind?
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- DubPack
- Bench Warmer
- 1898 posts this site
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Posted: 1/15/2013 1:21 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
chargerbomb wrote:
DubPack wrote: I know RPI is based on the formula, but it's amazing to be Miami can have RPI #5 with losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State Their RPI would be exactly the same if they had lost to Michigan State and Maryland instead. That's kinda my point |
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Posted: 1/15/2013 2:04 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
the formula: The current and commonly used formula for determining the RPI of a college basketball team at any given time is as follows. RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25) where WP is Winning Percentage, OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage and OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage. The WP is calculated by taking a team's wins divided by the number of games it has played (i.e. wins plus losses). For Division 1 NCAA Men's basketball, the WP factor of the RPI was updated in 2004 to account for differences in home, away, and neutral games. A home win now counts as 0.6 win, while a road win counts as 1.4 wins. Inversely, a home loss equals 1.4 losses, while a road loss counts as 0.6 loss. A neutral game counts as 1 win or 1 loss.
So the fact that Mich State and Maryland have better winning percentage than FGC and Ind State does seem like it would be a factor. Or am I reading the formula wrong? DubPack wrote:
chargerbomb wrote:
DubPack wrote: I know RPI is based on the formula, but it's amazing to be Miami can have RPI #5 with losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Indiana State Their RPI would be exactly the same if they had lost to Michigan State and Maryland instead. That's kinda my point |
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Posted: 1/15/2013 2:15 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Miami has a record of 12-3 while accomplishing the following:
win vs Maryland (13-3)
win @ North Carolina (RPI 44)
win vs Lasalle (RPI 42)
win vs Charlotte (14-2)
win vs Massachusetts (RPI 49)
win vs Michigan State (RPI 19)
That list only includes one marquee victory, but it's a very solid collection of pretty good ones. Besides which, two of their losses aren't as bad as they look. None are out of the Top 100 and Indiana State is actually Top 50. What's more, the loss to FGCU was a true road game which means it counts only as six-tenths of a loss.
Plug it all into the formula and Miami comes out better than all but four teams in the country. It's a sound formula, if you don't allow yourself to get hung up on the name recognition of a team that might be a little better than you realize (FGCU - RPI 93), and if you remember to consider their numerous good wins against the one questionable loss.
Miami's got three testers coming up though. On the road against an improving BC team, and at home against FSU and Duke. The next two weeks will reveal a lot about just how good Miami really is.
In case you're wondering, it works like this:
RPI = 0.25(winning percentage)* + 0.50(opponents' winning percentage) + 0.25(opponents' opponents' winning percentage)
* Team winning percentage is compiled by derating home wins and road losses by a factor of 0.6 and inflating road wins and home losses by a factor of 1.4. Neutral court games are counted at whole value.
Last edited 1/15/2013 9:13 PM by Whitechapel
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Posted: 1/16/2013 9:36 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html
Keeping this link on the last page. |
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Posted: 1/17/2013 7:51 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Well -after our loss in Alaska! :
RPI #11 (didn't hurt RPI much!) (projected finish of 13-5 ACC)
Pomeroy #26
Sagarin #20
Looking good at 14-3 (3-1 ACC).
We need to get another 10 game win streak started Sunday at home against Clemson (plus keep our undefeated at home streak going!)
GO PACK!!! HOLD THOSE TIGERS!!!!!
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Posted: 1/21/2013 7:46 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Through games of Sunday Jan 20th :
Pomeroy #29
Sagarin #22
RPI #13 (projected record of 12-6 ACC - though only 3 games predicted as losses - at UVA, At Duke, At UNC-CHeat)
GO PACK!!! BEAT WAKE!!!!
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Posted: 1/21/2013 8:05 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Must also expect us to lose at home to Miami.......Don't know the other loss they are predicting.
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Posted: 1/22/2013 6:38 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
They look at each game as a percentage - thus the 3 games with a lower than 50 % chance to win - but they also look at the rest of the season - ie if we have 4 games left and 60% chance to win all 3 they will say 2-1 or some thing like that.
GO PACK!!! BEAT WAKE!!!! Then - BEAT THE CHEATS!!!
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Posted: 1/23/2013 11:18 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Well - after our horrible loss last night :
RPI #16 (predicting 11-7 ACC record)
Sagarin #29
Pomeroy #37
The sky is still up!
GO PACK!!! BEAT THE CHeats!!!
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Posted: 1/23/2013 11:23 AM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
16 isn't too bad. lets jus get over yesterday and beat the Heels!
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Posted: 1/23/2013 12:14 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
XxPack18xX wrote: 16 isn't too bad. lets jus get over yesterday and beat the Heels!
Indeed -if we beat the CHeats we will stay ranked - if we beat them by 10 (I'm dreaming I know) then we might stay about where we are now - in the pollster's minds beating UNC-CHeat and Duke in the same 2 weeks will outweigh the hiccups on the road.
We are a few made ft's from being 6-0 ACC.
GO PACK!!! BEAT THE CHeats!
Lots of things working for us - night game, home game, rivalry game, extra day to prepare - and coming of a close loss. WE WILL WIN!!! |
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Posted: 1/23/2013 12:37 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Dave Robertson was "the greatest southpaw (pitcher) the game ever knew" - John J. McGraw, The Milwaukee Sentinel, May 21, 1916
Last edited 1/23/2013 12:38 PM by OldNorthStatesman
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Posted: 1/23/2013 12:55 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
as far as ranking, i wish we would be unranked to get that fire back. However, we beat UNC, we will likely drop in the lower 20's if not right at 25
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Posted: 1/23/2013 1:51 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
XxPack18xX wrote: as far as ranking, i wish we would be unranked to get that fire back. However, we beat UNC, we will likely drop in the lower 20's if not right at 25 
Last edited 1/23/2013 1:52 PM by Whitechapel
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Posted: 1/24/2013 9:11 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
After last nights(1/23/13) games -
RPI #17 (Duke still #1 RPI and Miami at #4)
Pomeroy #39 (Duke #5 Miami #15)
Sagarin #30 (Duke #4 Miami #11)
GO PACK!!! BEAT the CHeats!!!
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Posted: 1/27/2013 8:04 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
After our win over the CHeaters!!! :)
RPI #16
Pomeroy #39
Sagarin #19
GO PACK!!! BEAT THE HOOS up in Hooville!! Make them all cry BOO HOO HOO!
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:41 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
What's up with Pomeroy?
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Posted: 1/27/2013 1:47 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
veeps wrote: What's up with Pomeroy? I think we kicked his dog or something :)
Actually - it takes away points for lack of defense - which is why back in the "old" days under Herb - we would usually be better in Pomeroy than in the other 2 ratings systems.
As long as we keep winning - it will take care of itself.
GO PACK!!! BEAT UVA!!!!
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- WOLFDAC
 - "Prue Gold"
- 1934 posts this site
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Posted: 1/27/2013 2:20 PM
Re: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
I beleive it's viewed as the least important indicator via Selection Sunday, could be wrong about that, but I think that's the case.
Life long Wolfpack Fan....Alumni Class of 1989
The Wolves are on The Road.
It was here first-"ANYA FACE!" 11/16/2012
Last edited 1/27/2013 2:20 PM by WOLFDAC
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Posted: 1/27/2013 2:41 PM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Thanks. I was thinking these things usually start aligning this time of year but Pomeroy seemed to be an outlier.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 7:27 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
Yeah - its kind of different - most years we had a really bad RPI - but Sagarin and Pomeroy would be about the same level and show us as better - this year our RPI has been the highest with Sagarin lower but still good and Pomeroy even lower.
Just one of those things - and shows why no formula can be taken as THE formula.
The ratings I like best are the ones from dancecard (they have not put out any yet for this year) as they get the NCAA tourney teams nearly all correct each year - they had us in at the end of last year and I was not worried on selection Sunday even when they left us as the last one up on the board :)
GO PACK!!! BEAT THE HOOS!!!
after Sunday's games (1/27/13) :
RPI #15
Pomeroy #38
Sagarin #19
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- BSPack
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Posted: 1/28/2013 7:38 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
7 loss Iowa ranked ahead of us --------------------------------------------- --- adamant wrote: veeps wrote: What's up with Pomeroy? I think we kicked his dog or something :) Actually - it takes away points for lack of defense - which is why back in the "old" days under Herb - we would usually be better in Pomeroy than in the other 2 ratings systems. As long as we keep winning - it will take care of itself. GO PACK!!! BEAT UVA!!!! --------------------------------------------- |
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Posted: 1/28/2013 8:09 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
RPI predictor now has us finishing the year 7-4 and ending up 12-6 in the ACC (23-8 overall).
That would not be too bad - it might even be tied for 1st place by the end of it all.
We really need to beat UVA and then Miami this week - we only play Miami once so we would have the tiebreaker over them - and at worst we split with the blues - so that would likely make us the #1 seed if there is a multiple team tie up at the end of the season (and Miami is one of them along with us).
GO PACK!!! BEAT THE HOOS!!!!
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Posted: 1/28/2013 8:24 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
adamant wrote: RPI predictor now has us finishing the year 7-4 and ending up 12-6 in the ACC (23-8 overall).
That would not be too bad - it might even be tied for 1st place by the end of it all.
We really need to beat UVA and then Miami this week - we only play Miami once so we would have the tiebreaker over them - and at worst we split with the blues - so that would likely make us the #1 seed if there is a multiple team tie up at the end of the season (and Miami is one of them along with us).
GO PACK!!! BEAT THE HOOS!!!! I dont think 12-6 is going to get first place. I don't see Miami losing six games with their schedule. I also dont think Duke is going to lose four more times in the league. |
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Posted: 1/28/2013 8:38 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
^^^Yep Miami's toughest games left on their schedule are @ NCSU and @ Duke. That is it. Maybe @ FSU could be a loss, but last night they beat them easily. Unc @ miami could be a loss, but unc has already lost to miami at chapel hill. Who do they play that could seriously challenge them? They get to play va tech, ga tech, & wake a ton. Personally, I don't see Miami with more than 3 losses, if that. NCSU & Duke will probably need to focus on the real tourney.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 8:39 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
johnpackfan7 wrote: ^^^Yep Miami's toughest games left on their schedule are @ NCSU and @ Duke. That is it. Maybe @ FSU could be a loss, but last night they beat them easily. Unc @ miami could be a loss, but unc has already lost to miami at chapel hill. Who do they play that could seriously challenge them? They get to play va tech, ga tech, & wake a ton. Personally, I don't see Miami with more than 3 losses, if that. NCSU & Duke will probably need to focus on the real tourney. Miami beat BC by 1. They are likely going to have a WTF game or two. It happens to all teams.
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Posted: 1/28/2013 9:03 AM
RE: Yearly RPI Sagarin Pomeroy Ratings Thread
adamant wrote: Yeah - its kind of different - most years we had a really bad RPI - but Sagarin and Pomeroy would be about the same level and show us as better - this year our RPI has been the highest with Sagarin lower but still good and Pomeroy even lower.
Just one of those things - and shows why no formula can be taken as THE formula.
The ratings I like best are the ones from dancecard (they have not put out any yet for this year) as they get the NCAA tourney teams nearly all correct each year - they had us in at the end of last year and I was not worried on selection Sunday even when they left us as the last one up on the board :)
GO PACK!!! BEAT THE HOOS!!!
after Sunday's games (1/27/13) :
RPI #15
Pomeroy #38
Sagarin #19 My understanding of Pomeroy is that it is pace independent it looks a points per possession on offense vs points per possession on defense. For an up tempo team like us Sagarin is usually going to be better because his pure "predictor" only looks at margin of victory but does not adjust for pace. In Pomeroy a two point win in a 52-50 game is more important than a two point win in an 82-80 game. Also Pomeroy does not care who actually won the game (at least not much) a one point win is not that different than a one point loss in Pomeroy's system. The same is true of Sagarin's "Predictor" but not his Elo-Chess rating the Elo rating only looks at who won not how close the game was. His headline rating is the average of the Elo and the Predictor. We get a boost in the ELO because we generally have played to the level of our opponent so we generally have won low margin of victory games no matter who the team is. To Elo that looks good to Predictor and Pomeroy close games look like games that you could have just as easily lost. Oh and RPI is garbage and just a stupid way to rank teams. I never had any large respect for good spelling. ---Mark Twain |
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