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A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl!

Posted: 12/25/2012 9:02 PM

A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


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Posted: 12/25/2012 9:58 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


It looks like Oregon is putting a lot of stock in the Kansas State v. Baylor game.

I know these will be labeled as excuses. However, you have to take them into consideration due to the differences in Baylor and Oregon games.

Baylor was a road game against a very good offense for a defense on the heels of playing @ Iowa State, @ West Virginia, v. Texas Tech, v. Oklahoma State, and @ TCU. In the bowl game K-State will have a month to get physically and schematically ready and not a week.

K-State suffered season ending injuries to Tre Walker, and Tyler Zimmerman in the week(s) before game @ Baylor. Baylor was the first start for Zimmerman's replacement, which put K-State in schematic disadvantages throughout the game with both Safeties often playing deep to avoid the big pass play, but consistently getting gashed on run plays. Defense looked much better 2 weeks later v. Texas, and will have had an additional month to get players prepared much better than they were for the Baylor game.

I would be disappointed if K-State played a similar bad game in the Fiesta Bowl. I expect the team to play well on both sides of the ball.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 12:09 AM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


^^^^^
It's a long season. Probably gotta throw out a teams best and worst performance to get an
idea of the average's.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 9:14 AM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


Funny you bring up the excuses for Baylor, but discount our struggles with Stanford.  We lost our All-American and three year starter, John Boyett in game one, and his backup Avery Patterson in the Cal game (the week before Stanford).  We played Stanford with 6 of our 8 defensive linemen from the opening two deep injured, and lost our most experienced o-lineman (another 3 year stater) Carson York . . . injuries happen, and we had our share . . . heck, even Kenjon Barner was hurt in the Cal game, and played injured vs. Stanford.



buckeyemark wrote: It looks like Oregon is putting a lot of stock in the Kansas State v. Baylor game.

I know these will be labeled as excuses. However, you have to take them into consideration due to the differences in Baylor and Oregon games.

Baylor was a road game against a very good offense for a defense on the heels of playing @ Iowa State, @ West Virginia, v. Texas Tech, v. Oklahoma State, and @ TCU. In the bowl game K-State will have a month to get physically and schematically ready and not a week.

K-State suffered season ending injuries to Tre Walker, and Tyler Zimmerman in the week(s) before game @ Baylor. Baylor was the first start for Zimmerman's replacement, which put K-State in schematic disadvantages throughout the game with both Safeties often playing deep to avoid the big pass play, but consistently getting gashed on run plays. Defense looked much better 2 weeks later v. Texas, and will have had an additional month to get players prepared much better than they were for the Baylor game.

I would be disappointed if K-State played a similar bad game in the Fiesta Bowl. I expect the team to play well on both sides of the ball.
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  • cats75
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Posted: 12/26/2012 9:41 AM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


Show me where in this thread that the DUCKS struggles with STANFORD has been discounted.  All that is being said is that a lot of the analysis of KSU's performance is based on the Baylor game, but remember the Cats played and WON 11 other games this year, why isn't how KSU handled WVU's spread offense and GENO SMITH ever discussed?  The artlce refers to POROUS BIG XII defense's but I guess I have not seen enough PAC 12 games to see all of thier great defenses!
charlestonduck wrote: Funny you bring up the excuses for Baylor, but discount our struggles with Stanford.  We lost our All-American and three year starter, John Boyett in game one, and his backup Avery Patterson in the Cal game (the week before Stanford).  We played Stanford with 6 of our 8 defensive linemen from the opening two deep injured, and lost our most experienced o-lineman (another 3 year stater) Carson York . . . injuries happen, and we had our share . . . heck, even Kenjon Barner was hurt in the Cal game, and played injured vs. Stanford.


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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:27 AM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


Show me where I mentioned Oregon v. Stanford! I see Stanford more in the mold of a good SEC, Big 10 / Notre Dame team. I don't think how Stanford played has any baring on K-State because, while K-State is probably more in the Stanford mold than most Big 12 teams, they still aren't in the Stanford mold.

The only thing I ever bring up is how Oregon puts up huge offensive numbers and looks unbeatable, BUT every year one-two teams slow them down and at the end of the season Oregon has little to show for all of their offensive output. 2009 3 losses including Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. 2010 loss in National Championship game. 2011 2 losses and a win in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. 2012 1 loss with Fiesta Bowl to play. So, far only a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin to show for all of it!

Oregon played @ Arizona State (7-5) after having 12 days off after Washington game, v. Colorado (1-11) after having 9 days off after Arizona State game, @ USC (7-5), @ Cal (3-9) before playing Stanford at home. Thus they had more time off, and weaker competition, and were playing at home compared to K-State playing @ Iowa State (6-6), @ West Virginia (7-5), v. Texas Tech (7-5), v. Oklahoma State (7-5), and @ TCU (7-5) before playing @ Baylor (7-5).

The best teams Oregon played in 2012 were Stanford (Loss 17-14), and @ Oregon State (Win 48-24). The best teams K-State played in 2012 were @ Oklahoma (Win 24-19), and v. Texas (Win 42-24).

I don't think Baylor or Stanford will have a great baring on the game.
charlestonduck wrote: Funny you bring up the excuses for Baylor, but discount our struggles with Stanford.  We lost our All-American and three year starter, John Boyett in game one, and his backup Avery Patterson in the Cal game (the week before Stanford).  We played Stanford with 6 of our 8 defensive linemen from the opening two deep injured, and lost our most experienced o-lineman (another 3 year stater) Carson York . . . injuries happen, and we had our share . . . heck, even Kenjon Barner was hurt in the Cal game, and played injured vs. Stanford.



buckeyemark wrote: It looks like Oregon is putting a lot of stock in the Kansas State v. Baylor game.

I know these will be labeled as excuses. However, you have to take them into consideration due to the differences in Baylor and Oregon games.

Baylor was a road game against a very good offense for a defense on the heels of playing @ Iowa State, @ West Virginia, v. Texas Tech, v. Oklahoma State, and @ TCU. In the bowl game K-State will have a month to get physically and schematically ready and not a week.

K-State suffered season ending injuries to Tre Walker, and Tyler Zimmerman in the week(s) before game @ Baylor. Baylor was the first start for Zimmerman's replacement, which put K-State in schematic disadvantages throughout the game with both Safeties often playing deep to avoid the big pass play, but consistently getting gashed on run plays. Defense looked much better 2 weeks later v. Texas, and will have had an additional month to get players prepared much better than they were for the Baylor game.

I would be disappointed if K-State played a similar bad game in the Fiesta Bowl. I expect the team to play well on both sides of the ball.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 11:55 AM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


Ok, so Oregon was down a lot of defensive starters. I'll take that. But, why didn't they light Stanford.up on the scoreboard? It was still a low scoring affair for both teams. I've heard that you're 4 deep at RB, so K.B. beng nicked shouldn't have slowed offensive production. I'm not.trolling. I just would like clarification. If It's because Stanford has a stout running D, expect the same from K States front 7.
PURPLE Get ready to roll!!!!!!

"K-State Quarterbacks never slide. We will hit you to get that extra yard” -Ell Roberson

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Posted: 12/26/2012 12:52 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 



---------------------------------------------
--- EIGHTLUG wrote:

Ok, so Oregon was down a lot of defensive starters. I'll take that. But, why didn't they light Stanford.up on the scoreboard? It was still a low scoring affair for both teams. I've heard that you're 4 deep at RB, so K.B. beng nicked shouldn't have slowed offensive production. I'm not.trolling. I just would like clarification. If It's because Stanford has a stout running D, expect the same from K States front 7.

---------------------------------------------

I was surprised Stanford shut down Oregon. The last two years, Oregon hung 50+ points on the Cardinal. To Stanford's credit, they do have the nations #1 ranked run defense. Some argue that Stanford has one the top 3 defensive front sevens in all of college football.

During the Chip Kelley era, Oregon has played one stinker game a year every November. Personally, I think the pace of play wears on the guy's in the trenches over the course of the season a little.

Anyway, Stanford played great and won. They are a legit top 5 team.

From watching KSU, I'm not seeing the K-state front 7 as good as the Stanford front 7. Thats going by both the eyeball test and stats. Now KSU has a good front 7, but it's not an elite front 7. Also gotta factor in the Big12 doesn't run the ball as well as the Pac10.

Last edited 12/26/2012 1:16 PM by BubbaDuck007

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Posted: 12/26/2012 1:06 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 



EIGHTLUG wrote: Ok, so Oregon was down a lot of defensive starters. I'll take that. But, why didn't they light Stanford.up on the scoreboard? It was still a low scoring affair for both teams. I've heard that you're 4 deep at RB, so K.B. beng nicked shouldn't have slowed offensive production. I'm not.trolling. I just would like clarification. If It's because Stanford has a stout running D, expect the same from K States front 7.
Stanford has a stout run D ... #3 in the nation.

The best rushing offense K-state played in the Big12 averages 225 yards per game.

Oregon averages 323 yards per game.

Stanford was giving up about 75 yards per game before facing Oregon ... Stanford gave up 198 yards rushing to Oregon.

Given the rushing performances of the last two games played by K-state I am not sure how you expect K-State to defend the run better than Stanford.

Oregon followed their "poor" rushing performance against Stanford with 430 yards rushing versus Oregon State.  Prior to playing Oregon, the OSU defense was in the top 15 in rushing yards per game.

As has been mentioned before, both teams will have to have an outstanding effort on defense to slow down the other team.  In addition, both offenses will face well-prepared defenses.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 1:13 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 



buckeyemark wrote: 

The only thing I ever bring up is how Oregon puts up huge offensive numbers and looks unbeatable, BUT every year one-two teams slow them down and at the end of the season Oregon has little to show for all of their offensive output. 2009 3 losses including Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. 2010 loss in National Championship game. 2011 2 losses and a win in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. 2012 1 loss with Fiesta Bowl to play. So, far only a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin to show for all of it!

This is 2012.  What do past losses have to do with anything . . . you don't see us naming all the teams that beat K-State since 2009 (or Ohio State).  We lost to Stanford in overtime--they are a really good team, going to a third straight BCS bowl practice and they (by their own accounts) have ended every practice since spring with "beat Oregon."  We are the power in the Pac-12 right now, we get everyone's A game--and sometimes good teams beat us.  K-State is a good team, if they bring it more than we do--they will probably beat us too.

Oregon played @ Arizona State (7-5) after having 12 days off after Washington game, v. Colorado (1-11) after having 9 days off after Arizona State game, @ USC (7-5), @ Cal (3-9) before playing Stanford at home. Thus they had more time off, and weaker competition, and were playing at home compared to K-State playing @ Iowa State (6-6), @ West Virginia (7-5), v. Texas Tech (7-5), v. Oklahoma State (7-5), and @ TCU (7-5) before playing @ Baylor (7-5).

Comparing schedules?  Who says these teams are better?  Iowa State?  Really.  You put down Cal--don't you watch Buckeye games any more?  They pushed you guys to the wire in Columbus and we beat them 59-17 in Berkeley (and once again, which game do you think they wanted more?) . . . Arizona whooped Okie Lite, and we beat UA 49-0 . . . WVU, TCU, TTU, Okie Lite and TCU is now murders row?  C'mon.

The best teams Oregon played in 2012 were Stanford (Loss 17-14), and @ Oregon State (Win 48-24). The best teams K-State played in 2012 were @ Oklahoma (Win 24-19), and v. Texas (Win 42-24).

I don't think Baylor or Stanford will have a great baring on the game.

I will agree with you there . . . the keys to the game are can K-State handle our speed, and can we handle K-State's physical style of play . . . the boys in the desert like us by 9--what is your prediction Buckeye? 
 
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  • cats75
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Posted: 12/26/2012 1:52 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


Although I am too lazy to look it up and they likely had been exposed in the game before they played KSU; what had WVU been averaging through the air before they played the boys in purple.  We do know that the eastern media was ready to give Geno Smith the Heisman after he threw for 8 TD's two games before playing the Cats.  How many meaningful TD's did he have against KSU?-0, while he had 2 interceptions. So at this point I think I would throw past statistics out the door or at least not rely on them.

Also, I would not rely on the "the boys in the desert" as they had the Cats as double digit DOGS in both the OU and WVU games this year and we all know how those games ended up!! Plus, they had the CATS as underdogs in 8 of the 10 games they won in 2011 and KSU was picked to finish in the bottom half of the BIG XII by them and other so called EXPERTS in 2012.biggrin
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Posted: 12/26/2012 2:14 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


People on here seem to hate Ohio State more than Oregon? So, I will keep this about K-State and Oregon.

I believe football games are won in many different ways - offense: passing and rushing, defense: passing and rushing, special teams: returns, punting, and kicking, time of possession, turnover margin, etc...

I keep bringing up Oregon's past because there is a track record of them losing 1-3 games a year and not having much to show for all of their offensive output. IE offense is not the only thing that matters in football games. If it was Oregon would have more than 1 Rose Bowl win to show for the last 4 years.

Oregon was supposed to be slip up proof in 2012 with all of their offensive weapons and increased ability and depth on defense, AND still the Ducks slipped up at home to a two loss team.

The way you look at comparative scores I can tell you think football is like some video game. Arizona beat Oklahoma State 59-38, but Oklahoma State out-gained Arizona 636-501. 4 turnovers by Oklahoma State had an enormous impact on the game. 

Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor is not murderers row. However, Iowa State beat Tulsa, TCU, and Baylor; West Virginia beat Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State; Texas Tech beat Iowa State, West Virginia, and TCU; Oklahoma State beat Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia, and Texas Tech; TCU beat Baylor, West Virgina, and Texas; and Baylor beat Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. So, all of these teams are capable of beating good teams on any given Saturday.

Cal beat UCLA, Colorado beat no one of note, Arizona State beat Arizona, and USC beat Washington and Arizona State. Stanford with wins over USC, Arizona, Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA, and UCLA was clearly the class of Oregon's schedule and the Ducks didn't get the job done.

As far as a prediction I predict a close game played in the 20s to mid 30s. My gut won't let me definitively say that K-State WILL win. However, when Ohio State played Oregon in 2009 I felt the same way that it could go either way and it would be played in the 20s.


charlestonduck wrote:
buckeyemark wrote: 

The only thing I ever bring up is how Oregon puts up huge offensive numbers and looks unbeatable, BUT every year one-two teams slow them down and at the end of the season Oregon has little to show for all of their offensive output. 2009 3 losses including Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. 2010 loss in National Championship game. 2011 2 losses and a win in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. 2012 1 loss with Fiesta Bowl to play. So, far only a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin to show for all of it!

This is 2012.  What do past losses have to do with anything . . . you don't see us naming all the teams that beat K-State since 2009 (or Ohio State).  We lost to Stanford in overtime--they are a really good team, going to a third straight BCS bowl practice and they (by their own accounts) have ended every practice since spring with "beat Oregon."  We are the power in the Pac-12 right now, we get everyone's A game--and sometimes good teams beat us.  K-State is a good team, if they bring it more than we do--they will probably beat us too.

Oregon played @ Arizona State (7-5) after having 12 days off after Washington game, v. Colorado (1-11) after having 9 days off after Arizona State game, @ USC (7-5), @ Cal (3-9) before playing Stanford at home. Thus they had more time off, and weaker competition, and were playing at home compared to K-State playing @ Iowa State (6-6), @ West Virginia (7-5), v. Texas Tech (7-5), v. Oklahoma State (7-5), and @ TCU (7-5) before playing @ Baylor (7-5).

Comparing schedules?  Who says these teams are better?  Iowa State?  Really.  You put down Cal--don't you watch Buckeye games any more?  They pushed you guys to the wire in Columbus and we beat them 59-17 in Berkeley (and once again, which game do you think they wanted more?) . . . Arizona whooped Okie Lite, and we beat UA 49-0 . . . WVU, TCU, TTU, Okie Lite and TCU is now murders row?  C'mon.

The best teams Oregon played in 2012 were Stanford (Loss 17-14), and @ Oregon State (Win 48-24). The best teams K-State played in 2012 were @ Oklahoma (Win 24-19), and v. Texas (Win 42-24).

I don't think Baylor or Stanford will have a great baring on the game.

I will agree with you there . . . the keys to the game are can K-State handle our speed, and can we handle K-State's physical style of play . . . the boys in the desert like us by 9--what is your prediction Buckeye? 
 
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Posted: 12/26/2012 2:46 PM

RE: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


One interesting point about this game that I dont think has been brought up in any of the threads so far as it relates to Oregon's past as well as against KSU. Local radio host in PDX former all american/NFL O-lineman was all over the Ducks beating the Buckeyes until he saw the two teams get off the bus in Pasadena. He swapped his prediction and said the Buckeyes would win it based on the O and D line. He said a similar thing about Auburn. Wisconsin was still favored but it was a lot closer, and it was the x-factor in speed of that game (DeAnthony Thomas) that really made the difference.

Oregon vs KSU is probably the first BCS bowl game they've played in where Oregon is going to be favored from a size strenght speed and athleticism standpoint on the O and D lines compared to KSU.
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Posted: 12/26/2012 3:11 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 



buckeyemark wrote: People on here seem to hate Ohio State more than Oregon? So, I will keep this about K-State and Oregon.

I believe football games are won in many different ways - offense: passing and rushing, defense: passing and rushing, special teams: returns, punting, and kicking, time of possession, turnover margin, etc...

I agree and we are solid in all aspects of the game.  When tOSU beat us in the Rose Bowl in 2009, we had Jeremiah Masoli at QB.  He was a great runner, but was 5-10 and struggled when forced to pass.  We now have a 6-4 QB with one of the best passer ratings in the nation.  Our wide receiving corp more talented--Huff has blazing speed and has developed into a great 'go-to' receiver (like Harper started at another position) . . . DAT is a threat in many different ways from the slot.  Lowe, Addison, Stanford were all US Army All-Americans and have lived up to their billing.  Lyerla is the best tight-end K-State will see all year.  Our running game numbers speak for themselves.  Our defense is full of athletes that will play on Sundays (Jordan, Remington, Hart, Keliikipi, Heimuli, Armstead, Buckner, Clay, Alonzo, Lokombo, Mitchell, Ekrpe-Olomu WILL all make NFL rosters in the next few seasons . . . other youngsters still have potential).  Our defense lead the nation in interceptions and was one of the best in turnover margins . . .our punter was a Ray Guy finalist, kicker could be an Achilles heal . . .time of possession is a meaningless stat to our team--K-State will win the time of possession battle (if they don't their losing by 40+).

I keep bringing up Oregon's past because there is a track record of them losing 1-3 games a year and not having much to show for all of their offensive output. IE offense is not the only thing that matters in football games. If it was Oregon would have more than 1 Rose Bowl win to show for the last 4 years.

On the flip side, just as I used to argue for Ohio State and Oklahoma when hit with similar complaints--who is going to more BCS bowl games over that period?  No one!  No one has our track record over the past 4 years (aside from Alabama).  We held Cam Newton to 22 points and lost on a last second field goal (set up by a fluke run, when everyone--including Michael Dyer--thought he was down) . . . are we supposed to be embarrassed by that 22-19 loss?  We have a lot more talent than we did in 2009 (or probably even the 2010 BCS National Championship team).  We lost to Stanford in overtime--it sucks and is the reason we aren't playing Notre Dame for the National Championship . . . you should know--it is hard to go undefeated . . . but when we do lose--it is a close game, that change a play here or there and it could go the other way--when we win, it is usually a blow out.  Agree?

Oregon was supposed to be slip up proof in 2012 with all of their offensive weapons and increased ability and depth on defense, AND still the Ducks slipped up at home to a two loss team.

Stanford beat us that day, we dropped 50 on them the previous two years . . . the ball just didn't bounce our way that night.  K-State can beat us, they are one of the few teams that has enough talent to do so . . . finishing the job is not so easy--ask ANY of our opponents.  

 
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Posted: 12/26/2012 3:24 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


---------------------------------------------
--- buckeyemark wrote:


I keep bringing up Oregon's past because there is a track record of them losing 1-3 games a year and not having much to show for all of their offensive output. IE offense is not the only thing that matters in football games. If it was Oregon would have more than 1 Rose Bowl win to show for the last 4 years.

Oregon was supposed to be slip up proof in 2012 with all of their offensive weapons and increased ability and depth on defense, AND still the Ducks slipped up at home to a two loss team.

---------------------------------------------

C'mon now Buckeye Mark, you give the impression that 6 or 7 teams a year go defeated! Losing 1-3 games a year ain't exactly stinking up the joint. Lotta programs would like to be in Oregon's shoes.

Stanford is a pretty darn good team. And....if stanford had gotten a win they quite probably deserve at ND, maybe it's Alabama vs Stanford in the title game? I know coulda, woulda, shoulda.....

Anyway, sorry about your Buckeyes having a bowl ban. I don't like USC having been on bowl game restriction either. Who knows, it might be Oregon's turn next!

Last edited 12/26/2012 5:23 PM by BubbaDuck007

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Posted: 12/26/2012 3:44 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 



buckeyemark wrote: People on here seem to hate Ohio State more than Oregon? So, I will keep this about K-State and Oregon.

I believe football games are won in many different ways - offense: passing and rushing, defense: passing and rushing, special teams: returns, punting, and kicking, time of possession, turnover margin, etc...

I keep bringing up Oregon's past because there is a track record of them losing 1-3 games a year and not having much to show for all of their offensive output. IE offense is not the only thing that matters in football games. If it was Oregon would have more than 1 Rose Bowl win to show for the last 4 years.

>>  You have made this statement for a second timein this thread
"not having much to show for all of their offensive output."
Oregon was the 3 time undisputed Pac12 Champion, has ended the season ranked in the top 10, and is on the cusp of their 3rd 12 win season in a row.  That IS something.

>>  Oregon played and lost to the #4 team in the country in one bowl game.
>>  Oregon played and lost to the #1 team in the country in one bowl game.
>>  Oregon played and beat the a top ten team in the last bowl game.

>>  The LEVEL of COMPETITION for Oregon has been outstanding in their bowl games.  Even the best teams lose games against highly ranked opponents.

lipped up at home to a two loss team.
>> That 2-loss team is currently ranked inthe top 10 of the BCS standings and is the Pac12 Conference Champion in 2012.  That is also a team that is gonig to their 3rd BCS bowl game in the last 3 years.  The 2012 loss to Stanford was in overtime.  Using that loss by Oregon (or using losses to Ohio State, Auburn, LSU in previous season) to make a case for a Kansas State advantage in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl is silly on its face.  The overtime loss to Stanford demonstrates more about why Oregon will win than it does about some trend that favors K-State.


The way you look at comparative scores I can tell you think football is like some video game. Arizona beat Oklahoma State 59-38, but Oklahoma State out-gained Arizona 636-501. 4 turnovers by Oklahoma State had an enormous impact on the game. 

Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor is not murderers row. However, Iowa State beat Tulsa, TCU, and Baylor; West Virginia beat Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State; Texas Tech beat Iowa State, West Virginia, and TCU; Oklahoma State beat Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia, and Texas Tech; TCU beat Baylor, West Virgina, and Texas; and Baylor beat Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. So, all of these teams are capable of beating good teams on any given Saturday.

Cal beat UCLA, Colorado beat no one of note, Arizona State beat Arizona, and USC beat Washington and Arizona State. Stanford with wins over USC, Arizona, Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA, and UCLA was clearly the class of Oregon's schedule and the Ducks didn't get the job done.

>>  Just like K-state did not get the job done against an inferior 7-5 Baylor team.  Again, this make absolutely no point about how K-State matches up with Oregon, only about how Big12 teams are inconsistent in performance week to week.  Which is what happened in the Pac12 as well.  Oregon won ALL of their games by double digits, and the close game was an 11 point win over USC where the Trojans had to score in the last 5 seconds of the game to close the gap from 17 points. 

As far as a prediction I predict a close game played in the 20s to mid 30s. My gut won't let me definitively say that K-State WILL win. However, when Ohio State played Oregon in 2009 I felt the same way that it could go either way and it would be played in the 20s.

>>  Oregon will score more than 30 points easily.  PERIOD.  Marcus Mariota is 4 times the passer that Masoli ever dreamed of being (which was a HUGE factor in the Ohio State win in the Rose Bowl ... the fact that Masoli could not hit several open receivers against the Buckeyes).  You could probably make that distinction if you actually looked at the first team Pac12 Quarterback in 2012 compared to where Masoli was listed on the Pac10 team in 2009.



charlestonduck wrote:
buckeyemark wrote: 

The only thing I ever bring up is how Oregon puts up huge offensive numbers and looks unbeatable, BUT every year one-two teams slow them down and at the end of the season Oregon has little to show for all of their offensive output. 2009 3 losses including Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. 2010 loss in National Championship game. 2011 2 losses and a win in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. 2012 1 loss with Fiesta Bowl to play. So, far only a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin to show for all of it!

This is 2012.  What do past losses have to do with anything . . . you don't see us naming all the teams that beat K-State since 2009 (or Ohio State).  We lost to Stanford in overtime--they are a really good team, going to a third straight BCS bowl practice and they (by their own accounts) have ended every practice since spring with "beat Oregon."  We are the power in the Pac-12 right now, we get everyone's A game--and sometimes good teams beat us.  K-State is a good team, if they bring it more than we do--they will probably beat us too.

Oregon played @ Arizona State (7-5) after having 12 days off after Washington game, v. Colorado (1-11) after having 9 days off after Arizona State game, @ USC (7-5), @ Cal (3-9) before playing Stanford at home. Thus they had more time off, and weaker competition, and were playing at home compared to K-State playing @ Iowa State (6-6), @ West Virginia (7-5), v. Texas Tech (7-5), v. Oklahoma State (7-5), and @ TCU (7-5) before playing @ Baylor (7-5).

Comparing schedules?  Who says these teams are better?  Iowa State?  Really.  You put down Cal--don't you watch Buckeye games any more?  They pushed you guys to the wire in Columbus and we beat them 59-17 in Berkeley (and once again, which game do you think they wanted more?) . . . Arizona whooped Okie Lite, and we beat UA 49-0 . . . WVU, TCU, TTU, Okie Lite and TCU is now murders row?  C'mon.

The best teams Oregon played in 2012 were Stanford (Loss 17-14), and @ Oregon State (Win 48-24). The best teams K-State played in 2012 were @ Oklahoma (Win 24-19), and v. Texas (Win 42-24).

I don't think Baylor or Stanford will have a great baring on the game.

I will agree with you there . . . the keys to the game are can K-State handle our speed, and can we handle K-State's physical style of play . . . the boys in the desert like us by 9--what is your prediction Buckeye? 
 
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Posted: 12/26/2012 10:06 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


The bowl ban wasn't too bad.

12-0 and a win over Michigan to end the season. Unless there was going to be a National Championship game, which with 12-1 Alabama of the SEC lurking around there is no guarantee of that, then 12-0 was a pretty good season.

My point on Oregon losing 1-3 games a year, is simply that they aren't unbeatable. Thus K-State has a chance. And as long as you have a chance anything can happen.

Again, see a close game in the 20s to mid 30s. Hopefully, K-State wins. However, if Oregon wins I am sure they will have earned it as K-State generally plays 60 minutes and doesn't beat themselves. The Baylor loss was obviously to the contrary, however a lot of things conspired together that evening to produce that result.
BubbaDuck007 wrote: ---------------------------------------------
--- buckeyemark wrote:


I keep bringing up Oregon's past because there is a track record of them losing 1-3 games a year and not having much to show for all of their offensive output. IE offense is not the only thing that matters in football games. If it was Oregon would have more than 1 Rose Bowl win to show for the last 4 years.

Oregon was supposed to be slip up proof in 2012 with all of their offensive weapons and increased ability and depth on defense, AND still the Ducks slipped up at home to a two loss team.

---------------------------------------------

C'mon now Buckeye Mark, you give the impression that 6 or 7 teams a year go defeated! Losing 1-3 games a year ain't exactly stinking up the joint. Lotta programs would like to be in Oregon's shoes.

Stanford is a pretty darn good team. And....if stanford had gotten a win they quite probably deserve at ND, maybe it's Alabama vs Stanford in the title game? I know coulda, woulda, shoulda.....

Anyway, sorry about your Buckeyes having a bowl ban. I don't like USC having been on bowl game restriction either. Who knows, it might be Oregon's turn next!
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Posted: 12/26/2012 10:16 PM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 


Green: The only thing I will say is that like Ohio State, Auburn, Wisconsin, Stanford, etc... KANSAS STATE is a top 10 team.

They went 8-1 v. bowl eligible teams and won @ Oklahoma.

I know everybody likes to encapsulate K-State based on one game @ Baylor. Baylor ended the season at 7-5 and that included an 8 point loss @ Oklahoma, 7 point loss @ West Virginia, and a 6 point loss @ Texas. Baylor is not a consistent team based on their win over K-State and losses to TCU and Iowa State. However, Baylor played very well in the 2nd half of the season losing only @ Oklahoma by 8 points to finish the season hot.

We will get to see how Baylor matches up against a top 3-4 Pac 12 team in UCLA tomorrow night.
Green85 wrote:
buckeyemark wrote: People on here seem to hate Ohio State more than Oregon? So, I will keep this about K-State and Oregon.

I believe football games are won in many different ways - offense: passing and rushing, defense: passing and rushing, special teams: returns, punting, and kicking, time of possession, turnover margin, etc...

I keep bringing up Oregon's past because there is a track record of them losing 1-3 games a year and not having much to show for all of their offensive output. IE offense is not the only thing that matters in football games. If it was Oregon would have more than 1 Rose Bowl win to show for the last 4 years.

>>  You have made this statement for a second timein this thread
"not having much to show for all of their offensive output."
Oregon was the 3 time undisputed Pac12 Champion, has ended the season ranked in the top 10, and is on the cusp of their 3rd 12 win season in a row.  That IS something.

>>  Oregon played and lost to the #4 team in the country in one bowl game.
>>  Oregon played and lost to the #1 team in the country in one bowl game.
>>  Oregon played and beat the a top ten team in the last bowl game.

>>  The LEVEL of COMPETITION for Oregon has been outstanding in their bowl games.  Even the best teams lose games against highly ranked opponents.

lipped up at home to a two loss team.
>> That 2-loss team is currently ranked inthe top 10 of the BCS standings and is the Pac12 Conference Champion in 2012.  That is also a team that is gonig to their 3rd BCS bowl game in the last 3 years.  The 2012 loss to Stanford was in overtime.  Using that loss by Oregon (or using losses to Ohio State, Auburn, LSU in previous season) to make a case for a Kansas State advantage in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl is silly on its face.  The overtime loss to Stanford demonstrates more about why Oregon will win than it does about some trend that favors K-State.


The way you look at comparative scores I can tell you think football is like some video game. Arizona beat Oklahoma State 59-38, but Oklahoma State out-gained Arizona 636-501. 4 turnovers by Oklahoma State had an enormous impact on the game. 

Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor is not murderers row. However, Iowa State beat Tulsa, TCU, and Baylor; West Virginia beat Baylor, Texas, and Iowa State; Texas Tech beat Iowa State, West Virginia, and TCU; Oklahoma State beat Iowa State, TCU, West Virginia, and Texas Tech; TCU beat Baylor, West Virgina, and Texas; and Baylor beat Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State. So, all of these teams are capable of beating good teams on any given Saturday.

Cal beat UCLA, Colorado beat no one of note, Arizona State beat Arizona, and USC beat Washington and Arizona State. Stanford with wins over USC, Arizona, Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA, and UCLA was clearly the class of Oregon's schedule and the Ducks didn't get the job done.

>>  Just like K-state did not get the job done against an inferior 7-5 Baylor team.  Again, this make absolutely no point about how K-State matches up with Oregon, only about how Big12 teams are inconsistent in performance week to week.  Which is what happened in the Pac12 as well.  Oregon won ALL of their games by double digits, and the close game was an 11 point win over USC where the Trojans had to score in the last 5 seconds of the game to close the gap from 17 points. 

As far as a prediction I predict a close game played in the 20s to mid 30s. My gut won't let me definitively say that K-State WILL win. However, when Ohio State played Oregon in 2009 I felt the same way that it could go either way and it would be played in the 20s.

>>  Oregon will score more than 30 points easily.  PERIOD.  Marcus Mariota is 4 times the passer that Masoli ever dreamed of being (which was a HUGE factor in the Ohio State win in the Rose Bowl ... the fact that Masoli could not hit several open receivers against the Buckeyes).  You could probably make that distinction if you actually looked at the first team Pac12 Quarterback in 2012 compared to where Masoli was listed on the Pac10 team in 2009.



charlestonduck wrote:
buckeyemark wrote: 

The only thing I ever bring up is how Oregon puts up huge offensive numbers and looks unbeatable, BUT every year one-two teams slow them down and at the end of the season Oregon has little to show for all of their offensive output. 2009 3 losses including Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. 2010 loss in National Championship game. 2011 2 losses and a win in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. 2012 1 loss with Fiesta Bowl to play. So, far only a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin to show for all of it!

This is 2012.  What do past losses have to do with anything . . . you don't see us naming all the teams that beat K-State since 2009 (or Ohio State).  We lost to Stanford in overtime--they are a really good team, going to a third straight BCS bowl practice and they (by their own accounts) have ended every practice since spring with "beat Oregon."  We are the power in the Pac-12 right now, we get everyone's A game--and sometimes good teams beat us.  K-State is a good team, if they bring it more than we do--they will probably beat us too.

Oregon played @ Arizona State (7-5) after having 12 days off after Washington game, v. Colorado (1-11) after having 9 days off after Arizona State game, @ USC (7-5), @ Cal (3-9) before playing Stanford at home. Thus they had more time off, and weaker competition, and were playing at home compared to K-State playing @ Iowa State (6-6), @ West Virginia (7-5), v. Texas Tech (7-5), v. Oklahoma State (7-5), and @ TCU (7-5) before playing @ Baylor (7-5).

Comparing schedules?  Who says these teams are better?  Iowa State?  Really.  You put down Cal--don't you watch Buckeye games any more?  They pushed you guys to the wire in Columbus and we beat them 59-17 in Berkeley (and once again, which game do you think they wanted more?) . . . Arizona whooped Okie Lite, and we beat UA 49-0 . . . WVU, TCU, TTU, Okie Lite and TCU is now murders row?  C'mon.

The best teams Oregon played in 2012 were Stanford (Loss 17-14), and @ Oregon State (Win 48-24). The best teams K-State played in 2012 were @ Oklahoma (Win 24-19), and v. Texas (Win 42-24).

I don't think Baylor or Stanford will have a great baring on the game.

I will agree with you there . . . the keys to the game are can K-State handle our speed, and can we handle K-State's physical style of play . . . the boys in the desert like us by 9--what is your prediction Buckeye? 
 
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Posted: 12/27/2012 12:14 AM

Re: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 



charlestonduck wrote:
buckeyemark wrote: 

The only thing I ever bring up is how Oregon puts up huge offensive numbers and looks unbeatable, BUT every year one-two teams slow them down and at the end of the season Oregon has little to show for all of their offensive output. 2009 3 losses including Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State. 2010 loss in National Championship game. 2011 2 losses and a win in the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin. 2012 1 loss with Fiesta Bowl to play. So, far only a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin to show for all of it!

This is 2012.  What do past losses have to do with anything . . . you don't see us naming all the teams that beat K-State since 2009 (or Ohio State).  We lost to Stanford in overtime--they are a really good team, going to a third straight BCS bowl practice and they (by their own accounts) have ended every practice since spring with "beat Oregon."  We are the power in the Pac-12 right now, we get everyone's A game--and sometimes good teams beat us.  K-State is a good team, if they bring it more than we do--they will probably beat us too.

Oregon played @ Arizona State (7-5) after having 12 days off after Washington game, v. Colorado (1-11) after having 9 days off after Arizona State game, @ USC (7-5), @ Cal (3-9) before playing Stanford at home. Thus they had more time off, and weaker competition, and were playing at home compared to K-State playing @ Iowa State (6-6), @ West Virginia (7-5), v. Texas Tech (7-5), v. Oklahoma State (7-5), and @ TCU (7-5) before playing @ Baylor (7-5).

Comparing schedules?  Who says these teams are better?  Iowa State?  Really.  You put down Cal--don't you watch Buckeye games any more?  They pushed you guys to the wire in Columbus and we beat them 59-17 in Berkeley (and once again, which game do you think they wanted more?) . . . Arizona whooped Okie Lite, and we beat UA 49-0 . . . WVU, TCU, TTU, Okie Lite and TCU is now murders row?  C'mon.

The best teams Oregon played in 2012 were Stanford (Loss 17-14), and @ Oregon State (Win 48-24). The best teams K-State played in 2012 were @ Oklahoma (Win 24-19), and v. Texas (Win 42-24).

I don't think Baylor or Stanford will have a great baring on the game.

I will agree with you there . . . the keys to the game are can K-State handle our speed, and can we handle K-State's physical style of play . . . the boys in the desert like us by 9--what is your prediction Buckeye? 
 
What buckeyemark dismissed was KSU played FOUR road games (@ OU first) before playing @ Baylor.  Had we had been scheduled differently K-State could have reached the NCG IMO.  FIVE conference ROAD games is brutal in the Big 12 & it took it's toll.  
Ask yourself how many teams in the U.S. had to overcome that?  

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Last edited 12/27/2012 10:15 AM by TexasCat1

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Posted: 12/27/2012 12:34 AM

RE: A Numbers game in Fiesta Bowl! 



ode2luke wrote: One interesting point about this game that I dont think has been brought up in any of the threads so far as it relates to Oregon's past as well as against KSU. Local radio host in PDX former all american/NFL O-lineman was all over the Ducks beating the Buckeyes until he saw the two teams get off the bus in Pasadena. He swapped his prediction and said the Buckeyes would win it based on the O and D line. He said a similar thing about Auburn. Wisconsin was still favored but it was a lot closer, and it was the x-factor in speed of that game (DeAnthony Thomas) that really made the difference.

Oregon vs KSU is probably the first BCS bowl game they've played in where Oregon is going to be favored from a size strenght speed and athleticism standpoint on the O and D lines compared to KSU.
Size? No idea. Speed? Probably not. Our DL are faaaaaaast. Athleticism? Probably. Strength? Son, don't kid yourself.
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