FestivusRules wrote:
TheShank wrote:
FestivusRules wrote: Some scientists believe that there is about a 1 in 500 chance of an asteroid big enough to cause catastrophic damage hitting the earth in the next 100 years. And there's no way that we could calculate the collision early enough to do anything about it.
I've also heard the number 1 in 400, etc. Those odds aren't that likely. Just think that the Browns were something like 1 in 100 of winning the SB last year. I could have told you that wasn't going to happen.
But given enough 100 year timespans, it will eventually happen. The Browns winning it all and the asteroid hitting the earth. Let's hope that the former happens first.
I'm not so sure of that. If there is one thing man is pretty good at , its blowing things up.
Usually they can project the trajectory and path of an asteroid or meteor flight pretty far in advance. No ?
Wasn't project Deep Impact done successfully sometime this past decade ? They didn't blow it up but escavated samples from a comet.
The astronomer that I saw noted that it would extremely difficult to accurately project an impact years in advance. Think of the size of the galaxy, even the solar system when compared to earth.
He didn't elaborate as to why they couldn't deflect it enough if they discovered it too late. I had assumed that it would be travelling with such velocity that anything we threw at it wouldn't have an effect on it.
But I'm with you in that I would have liked to have heard some details. One would think that a massive nuke aimed right at the thing before it hits the atmosphere would be able to deflect it or break it apart.
I guess currently there really isn't a system to provide a warning for smaller asteroids or meteors. But there are a few alarm systems (space sentry satelites and telescopes) in the works . This Russian episode apparently brought about a greater urgency for such a system. Apparently the Russian event was actually a small Asteroid, not a meteor.
Detecting Asteroids and Meteors Takes On New Urgency.The Near Earth Object Program said the event in Russia was not related to the large asteroid that flew by on the 15th, 2012 DA14. Not sure if that has been confirmed or not.
They also put out this data about the asteroid that disentergrated over Russia.
Size of asteroid prior to entering Earths atmosphere, 55 feet.
Mass 10,000 tons.
Estimated energy released during the event. 500 kilotons
Duration of event. From entry to disintegration. 32.5 seconds.
Likelyhood of similar event. Once every 100 years.
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