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Re: apologies to tire changers
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Posted: 5/2/2012 2:06 PM
Re: apologies to tire changers
"Point blank, this was a good move."
-- It may be or it may not be. The people who are really set up to know are the people actually doing the draft. So, we'll see.
Saying that other teams don't set your value is avoiding the fact that there are 32 teams in the draft, that the draft is flexible, that the draft is timed and that you sometimes have to take certain factors in to "analysis" when deciding how to trade or parcel out your picks. You set a value perhaps, but what other teams may do is a fact you have to consider among many others. A value- like many things- has to be flexible and married to all other factors.
A pre-set value of a player is one thing, but a decision to take or not take a guy at a certain time is dependent on many factors. Vaue is one of those, but not the only one. Unless you're doing everything as a distant, ephemeral theory rather than trying to build a team with real people in real time.
None of which leaves a FO free from criticism or other "analysis". Just a reality check of how things actually get done.
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Posted: 5/2/2012 2:48 PM
Re: apologies to tire changers
I agree with how you put things here.
These are the things I know.
The film shows a kid that looks like he'll be a good DT in the NFL. The Browns need a kid that can play DT well to go into a Rotation to improve the Defense. The Saints feel this kid can play DT and were willing to spend the #89 on him. The Browns report they would have been content spending the #68 on him, gambled to add another pick.
The conclusion I draw from these things is this: The Browns made a good trade down. It was good because they still got the guy they wanted right in an area where other teams were interested in him (maximized the value of the pick) while netting another pick. So the actual trade down was a success.
Not only did they add another pick, they gained almost (I guess #88 would have been maxed) maximum value for their player. This is usually impossible to confirm because we only know 'teams had interest', not which teams or that they would have used a specific pick. Here, we know Hughes was gone by the #89 so we can affix an actual value. While this was luck, as the Saints could easily have traded up (they were hand-cuffed by losing picks earlier and such so it was more difficult for them than other teams) a few slots to achieve this, it now seems apparent that they did not have us pegged to go DT at #86... most had us going WR to include us fans. They probably thought Hughes was safe and would be there for him, so while there was a chance some team would move up over our new position or some team we dropped below on the deal might take him... we won the bet.
The big thing for me is the thing that takes this away from being Chaun Thompson, or any number of Al Davis picks. Usually the rest of the NFL and Draftnits are confused. Here, a legit team with a good track record at finding guys that are good at this position also had their eye on this kid. Had this report not leaked and they took the Regina kid... I might be wondering why we didn't take the Regina kid instead and studying tape on him. The fact that they still took DT is what I like, it means they were certain they wanted a DT as long as a reasonably level of talent was still there. I don't know how closely they grade the Regina kid to Hughes, but I do know this means they went really hard with the DT Scouting and probably know as much if not more about the DT crop this year than any NFL team. So if they wanted Hughes MORE... I'm glad we got him.
If we were whistling in the wind here and no other team had confirmed they thought this kid could play, I'd be worried. CT2. The Tennessee film and the New Orleans commitment (along with calls from Pittsburgh and others, as reported from Hughes himself) goes a long way to telling me that while not only did we fill a strategic need... that we may have got the BPA at this pick without 26+ NFL teams knowing it.
Now, if I'm viewing this right (and I know there are some variables out there) then that makes this one hell of a great pick. That's War Room at it's best. And huge credit needs to go to (1) the Scouts that found this kid and fought for his placement on the board and (2) Heckert for not only Drafting him but getting the Trade Down to work. Only Hughes production on the field, and the impact that has on Taylor and Rubin as well, will determine if this was a good pick or not. I maintain that Rotational DT (if he pulls his Weight and hits the field like a solid Rotational should) is equally important to certain starters, because of how the Defense regresses when a Starting DT is off the field if your Depth is lacking.
Now I could be wrong, and I admit that. Fact is, the people on the other side of this argument could be wrong too. Most of them aren't being nearly as intelligent about it as you, they are using the 'Who is this kid' argument or the 'Should have been a Position X' argument. While you mention these at some level it is because you bring an entire argument.
I have painted an argument for, and really do see, a very strategic and smart move that happened to work for the Browns.
If Hughes had went to the Saints, or heaven help had we not picked him at #86 and suddenly Pittsburgh traded up and grabbed him at #87... and he went on to be a Pro Bowl DT over the next 3 years, we would all be complaining about how we are always unlucky in the Drafts and other teams like (especially) the Stellers are finding these gems in the mid to low rounds. Now we go and do just that and people are furious about it.
How many no-names has Baltimore and Pittsburgh turned into really good if not Pro Bowl level Defenders? Sure, they've been hitting on those 1's and 2's as well, but we know for sure (especially at OL, DL and Blitz LB) that they get guys later and make them work in the system. We got Rubin in the 6th, we just added Hughes in the 3rd... we may find that he is as good if not better than Taylor. Taylor was a 1st. We'll have a 6th and 3rd that BOTH could be better than our 1st at the same position. Go figure. (To be fair, Rubin was rated Mid-3rd before some weird drop occurred, bad Shrine game or something).
See, we start Drafting effectively, we start Drafting the way the guys that have been beating the crap out of us have been doing it... and suddenly fans don't like that.
Smart, calculated moves all over this Draft. Moves with meaning and purpose. They probably all won't work, most Drafts don't have any team where all their moves in a Draft work, that's just insane. But we are looking really good on paper right name (namely due to a large number of holes, some weak talent at the lower levels at the positions we picked, and some quality picking overall).
We will see how this works out. I just refuse to call a pick a reach when other teams had interest and we wouldn't have had another chance to take him. We got him right where value dictated.
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Posted: 5/2/2012 3:05 PM
Re: apologies to tire changers
"We will see how this works out. I just refuse to call a pick a reach when other teams had interest and we wouldn't have had another chance to take him. We got him right where value dictated."
-- You might be a good person to have in a "war" room during a draft. (As if I knew...)
Doing evaluations well is one thing. Reacting well to a situation and keeping your head when the clock is ticking is another. Putting the 2 things together and coming out with a good answer is perhaps the goal.
I'm sure I would curl up in a fetal position under a desk and kick anyone who came near.
You might actually perform a useful service to someone.
Gold star for you. I'm sure it means alot...
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Posted: 5/3/2012 10:55 AM
Re: apologies to tire changers
I've read a lot of posts on here over the last 6 or so years. I've posted quiet a few to. Some have been quality, though early on I was accused on quantity and long windedness (and making up words, which I still seem to do).
You've posted well for as long as I can remember, kept emotion out of most of your postings, and used things like logic and reason to make your points. I am a firm believe that logic and reason are non-renewable resources and soon the world will do without. So I have appreciated you (and a few others here) for that.
Point is, a compliment is always a good thing. When it comes from some one who means it and is intelligent (as I believe both to be the case here) then it is treasured. I appreciate the kind words, though I do think you give me to much credit.
We beat the guys in charge up around here. They deserve it, I know well the record over the last 3 seasons. Still, we pick every little move apart. I would love to be in the War Rooms, and I feel in time I would be good at it. As I've stated, Heckert had me confused with this one... that's why I researched it. Completely out of left field, none of us saw it coming. Of course, I didn't have his resources... none of us did. IF his Scouts are right (and the film looks good so I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt) and Tom did his due diligence when we had this kid in (which was the best kept secret in the NFL, not only did we not know who this kid was we didn't even know he was in Berea Day One for the Interview) then we got a Solid Evaluation. That only leads to step 2... reacting to a situation and keeping your head when the clock is ticking. He dropped 20 spots, added a pick and grabbed his man at his last opportunity to do so.
Maybe it's nothing, really. But I can see a thing of beauty here. I can see layers of complexity, a bit of a gamble, hard work and trusting those you pay to do a job for you (your scouts)... all sorts of things coming together. A see a great play here. The kind of play that winning teams make. It's just one (though I really feel I saw 3 in this Draft, for another discussion), but it's been a LONG time since we've had a win in the Draft. Those always seem to go to the Ravens and Steelers.
So thank you for the compliment, I really do appreciate it. Just know, all I did was try to see what Heckert did. He's really the one the compliment goes to (again, if the kid can really play.) Maybe we can get more of these moving forward, and start opening up that FA Market as we get less holes to fill to close out this Team for Contention.
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Posted: 5/3/2012 1:57 PM
Re: apologies to tire changers
"So thank you for the compliment, I really do appreciate it."
-- Dang, I feel like I should insult you now. To keep what I laughing call my Pure Football cred, you know. Whatever cred I may have.
Simply stated, there are 2 worlds. (Well, there may be lots of worlds, but in this instance there are 2 worlds).
There is the world of geniuses behind keyboards who opine on stuff. Like you and me at times. And there's the world of guys who evaluate stuff and then really do stuff with those evaluations. Which is in a world that also contains 31 other evaluating and doing stuff teams.
And then the sedentary geniuses get to opine on how the other guys did stuff after the fact! What a wonderful world, if you're silly enough to read them or put much weight behind them. (Teddy Roosevelt- I think- had a famous and often used speech about this. Seems like the smart guys have been around for always).
So anyway, that's sports. And that's what keeps boards like this interesting. Frustrating, amusing, insightful, dumb, interesting. I like people who are more in love with the Browns than in their own writing.
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Posted: 5/3/2012 4:09 PM
Re: apologies to tire changers
"Whatever cred I may have."
You're good for 4.4 beers.
"I like people who are more in love with the Browns than in their own writing."
I'd certainly rather watch the Browns win than write about them winning. I'm fairly certain this whole website full of people, including the paid writers, feel the same.
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Posted: 5/3/2012 4:43 PM
Re: apologies to tire changers
Or as someone once said, there are two kinds of people in this world: those who think there are two kinds of people, and those who don't.
In certain ways, this board is like a version of Yelp.
You know you'll be traveling to Flotsam's Mistake, New Jersey, for your wife's second cousin's wedding, and you need to know a good play to stay, a good place for dinner, and a good place for breakfast the next morning.
And you see what's close to where you need to be, and you check the reviews. And everybody's a critic. That's the point. And some help to paint a pretty good picture for you as to what sounds good and is versus what sounds like a disappointment or what sounds iffy at first glance, but people say it's much better than it looks. (classic example is the Diamond Grill in Akron. Who would have thought from the crack bar exterior was a great old steakhouse? Visitors simply wouldn't know unless tipped off).
And on Yelp, you can generally separate those useful reviews from others whose balloon never lands and who seemingly gush over every place ("Burger King's breakfast is just awesome!!!"), while others have the perennial axe to grind and pan everything with malice (they somehow manage to stay in all the motels where the clerks are rude and bed bugs infest the mattresses).
If, say, you're a Falcons fan and you wanted to get a different perspective on last year's big trade, you'd do well to come to PFF to get a good handle on what Browns fans thought of it. You may only stop by again once a year, but you know it's a good resource on that particular subject.
And you know, without having to be reminded, that it's fans who have an opinion and don't pretend to be experts.
Not to be a homer about it, but I can't say I've seen a comparable fan page for another NFL team that had the quantity and quality of posts found here. You'd think the major markets would have 'em based on sheer numbers. Maybe they do, but I haven't seen them.
So why is it that when there is disagreement, people get their shorts in a twist and pretend that this place is something other than what it has always been?
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Posted: 5/3/2012 5:23 PM
Re: apologies to tire changers
"You're good for 4.4 beers."
-- As long as it gives me that little "click", how can I complain? Does this mean you're buying?
"I'd certainly rather watch the Browns win than write about them winning. I'm fairly certain this whole website full of people, including the paid writers, feel the same."
-- Of course the best thing is for the Browns to win and then write about them winning.
When you take a sick delight in "evaluating" them after a loss, you may have problems. Or you may be a Browns fan. Or both.
It would be nice to be a Browns fan and get paid real money for it. Randy? Are you reading this, Randy?
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