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RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder

Posted: 3/28/2012 10:59 AM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


PROS:

I agree that TR and Blackmon may have gone 8-12 last year. But that's irrelevent.

AA:

It's entirely relevant.

Doesn't matter where they would have gone last year.  Doesn't matter if there are 2 or 20 wr's worthy of the first round in any given year.  Doesn't matter who's "considered" to be top six picks.  That's the draftniks and conventional wisdom doing the consideration, and they don't make the picks and spend the money.

What's relevant is the value a team places on a particular prospect, iow what slot they think he's worth it to them in terms of a contract and resources expended.

No one considered Locker and Ponder to go where they did last year... except the Titans and Vikings.  Time will prove out whether they were right or wrong.  But their picks were certainly relevant to them.

Besides, when anyone plays a position of dire need for the Browns, the team may see better values further down.  A first rounder can upgrade rt,  but so can a third rounder. 

The best example of this is at wr.  Why spend the fourth pick on Blackmon when the 22nd pick can be spent on a Floyd or Wright or Hill?    Why spend the fourth pick on Richardson when the 22nd pick can be spent on a David Wilson or Lamar Miller? 

And don't tell me those guys aren't "considered" to be that good because we don't know that the Browns see it that way.

PROS:

They're both considered top six picks this year. And they play positions of dire need for the Browns, who averaged 13.6 ppg last year. The offense was ineffective and practically unwatchable. I really can't see them taking Claiborne or Coples. Heckert even admitted they probably won't take a defensive player at #4.

AA:

"Probably" is the operative word.  At any rate, I'd agree that the Browns would likely go offense with their first pick.  But it also looks like they'd love to trade down because they really don't see anyone being worth a 4th pick in the draft.  If they stay at #4 and pick TR or JB, it may be because everyone thought the same and didn't see the point in trading up.

PROS:

Heckert mentioned he has a buddy on the Oklahoma State staff who "raved" about Weeden. Kiper says Weeden would go 10-15 if not for his age. Heckert flat out stated he (Heckert) might not be here in five years so what does he care if Weeden is only going to have an 8-10 year career?

AA:

I guess legacy doesn't mean much to Heckert.  But hey, when you have an owner who states that the club really needs to resolve the qb situation... and it doesn't appear as if much has been resolved...

PROS:

If the Browns also see Weeden as a legit top half of the first round talent, they'll take him at #37 and go RB/WR with the first two picks. That makes more sense to me than reaching for Tannehill at #4. But in the end they'll probably do something none of us is expecting.

AA:

If the Browns truely see Weeden as a legit top half of the first round talent, they'll take him at #22.

Again, think Locker and Ponder. 

I really think that if a team values a prospect higher than other teams, it doesn't want to screw around too much and let that prospect fall too far to them.

There is something to be said for pairing Weeden with Blackmon, but once you make that commitment to Blackmon, you don't want to blow it by having another club slipping in to grab the old fart.
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Posted: 3/28/2012 3:03 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


AA - "Why spend the fourth pick on Richardson when the 22nd pick can be spent on a David Wilson or Lamar Miller? 

Because everybody I've heard/read thinks TR is that much better than rest of the RB field.
Would you agree that 95% of draft evaluators, talent evaluators have pegged TR as
THE RB of this draft? Mayock, who wasn't into drafting RBs that high, nearly passed out praising TR and how special a back he is.
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Posted: 3/29/2012 9:35 AM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


The best example of this is at wr.  Why spend the fourth pick on Blackmon when the 22nd pick can be spent on a Floyd or Wright or Hill?    Why spend the fourth pick on Richardson when the 22nd pick can be spent on a David Wilson or Lamar Miller?

That's the argument for taking Tannehill at #4 and getting the RB and WR later. I don't think the Browns will do that, but if they like the RBs and WRs that will be available later but aren't sold on Weeden or Cousins, they might bite the bullet and get the potential franchise QB when they have the chance rather than keep putting it off until next year when they might be 6-10 or 7-9 and in no positon to draft a blue chip QB. 

At any rate, I'd agree that the Browns would likely go offense with their first pick.  But it also looks like they'd love to trade down because they really don't see anyone being worth a 4th pick in the draft.  If they stay at #4 and pick TR or JB, it may be because everyone thought the same and didn't see the point in trading up.

Agree with this. Heckert even said they would like to trade down as far as #8. He's offering up the #4 pick. 

If the Browns truely see Weeden as a legit top half of the first round talent, they'll take him at #22.

Again, think Locker and Ponder.

I don't see anybody taking Weeden between #23 and #36, do you? All of them are set at QB for several years and Weeden only makes sense for a team that needs a QB now. 
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Posted: 3/29/2012 11:28 AM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


AA - "Why spend the fourth pick on Richardson when the 22nd pick can be spent on a David Wilson or Lamar Miller? 

GAD:

Because everybody I've heard/read thinks TR is that much better than rest of the RB field.

AA:

No one's disputing that, but it isn't the point.

The point is whether Richardson is as good a value at #4 as Wilson or Miller is at #22.

The point is what value the Browns place on these prospects. 

Everybody you've heard and read also think Coples is the best de out there.

And yet teams may see him as not nearly as good a value at #4 as a Nick Perry at #22.

GAD:

Would you agree that 95% of draft evaluators, talent evaluators have pegged TR as
THE RB of this draft?

AA:

Yea, just as they pegged Ingram as THE RB in last year's draft.  Problem was last year's crop wasn't all that great, and Ingram went far lower in the first round, and had far less impact.

And we don't know what value the Browns place on Richardson.  If they valued him as much as the draftniks, they'd stay put and take him.  And they may very well do that.

But the hint is that Heckert is willing to trade down as far as #8.  That may tell you what he thinks of who will be available, be it Richardson, Blackmon, Claiborne, etc.

GAD:

Mayock, who wasn't into drafting RBs that high, nearly passed out praising TR and how special a back he is.

AA:

But Mayock isn't Heckert.  And from Heckert's comments about trading down, it sounds like Heckert hasn't experienced any lightheadedness.
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Posted: 3/29/2012 12:02 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


Why spend the fourth pick on Blackmon when the 22nd pick can be spent on a Floyd or Wright or Hill?    Why spend the fourth pick on Richardson when the 22nd pick can be spent on a David Wilson or Lamar Miller?

PROS:

That's the argument for taking Tannehill at #4 and getting the RB and WR later. I don't think the Browns will do that, but if they like the RBs and WRs that will be available later but aren't sold on Weeden or Cousins, they might bite the bullet and get the potential franchise QB when they have the chance rather than keep putting it off until next year when they might be 6-10 or 7-9 and in no positon to draft a blue chip QB.

AA:

I hope you're right because if the Browns take Tannehill at #4, then the fo lost all credibility with me.  There are instances where I can say "welllll, I hope they know what they're doing," but this would be beyond the pale for me.


If the Browns truely see Weeden as a legit top half of the first round talent, they'll take him at #22.

Again, think Locker and Ponder.


PROS:

I don't see anybody taking Weeden between #23 and #36, do you? All of them are set at QB for several years and Weeden only makes sense for a team that needs a QB now.

AA:

You're STILL not thinking Locker and Ponder.

Teams can let certain players come to them in the draft, but qb's who have the means to start sooner than later is not among them.  That's what the Titans and Vikings thought, and they didn't care what the rest of the league would think-- they raised many an eyebrow by taking them so early.  Doesn't make 'em right, but they did show the courage of their convictions.

If they value someone that much, they have to take him in the range where they value him.  They can't get cute and figure no one between here and there doesn't need him... because somebody else who DOES need him will trade up for him.
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Posted: 3/29/2012 1:42 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


AA - "The point is whether Richardson is as good a value at #4 as Wilson or Miller is at #22."

You know AA, I think I dispute this logic you are using, because at some point, who is actually better matters more than who is best value.

I can obtain a Lexus @#4 (but an Audi8 Quattro is what I would normally expect @ #4)
or I can obtain a VW Lux Passat @ #22 (which is what I normally expect @ #22) - do I obtain the Passat because it fits my value criteria or do I obtain the Lexus which is a better car than the Passat, but doesn't quite fit my value chart?


*** please don't get hung up on the cars.....used to to make a point
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Posted: 3/29/2012 1:52 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


I hope you're right because if the Browns take Tannehill at #4, then the fo lost all credibility with me.  There are instances where I can say "welllll, I hope they know what they're doing," but this would be beyond the pale for me.

So you're fine with sticking with Colt and hoping he either develops into a QB that can win an AFC Championship game with a strong enough supporting cast or if not, hope they're bad enough to get the blue chip QB next year? 

If the FO thought Colt could beat the Steelers, Ravens, Patriots, and Broncos and get us to the Super Bowl in the next 3-4 years, why would they offer up three 1st round picks for a QB? 

ESPN was on this morning and McShay said he thinks Tannehill is a top 10 pick. Will need some time but has loads of talent. His receivers dropped 65 passes last year or his stats would have been off the charts. Perfect skill set for the WCO. He sold me, especially knowing we can get a Wilson or Martin at #37 and a Wright or Hill or Randle at #22. 

Ideally we trade down to #6 and take Tanny there while picking up another high 2nd rounder, but if we're stuck at #4 my pick would be the QB. 

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Posted: 3/29/2012 2:22 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


GAD:

You know AA, I think I dispute this logic you are using, because at some point, who is actually better matters more than who is best value.

AA:

Interesting you write this since you were against using multiple picks on arguably one of the two best players in the draft (Griffin), but instead wanted the Browns to get value from all their picks.

And the analogy to cars is flawed because these are machines that can be broken down and analyzed for what they are.  The draft does not produce uniform results every year where the best players are automatically at the top, and their quality diminishes  with each round.   Lexus U. can still produce a dud while the kid from Chrysler A & M can break out as a star.

The other problem is that a team doesn't draft just one guy, but several.  The draft has to be taken in its totality of good picks filling positions of need. 

So we again have the oft/asked question:

do the Browns use their first pick on the best rb, THEN their next pick on the best wr still on the board?

Or the reverse?

They can have who is considered the best wr OR rb, but they can't have both.

Or, to name names...

Trent Richardson & Kendall Wright... or Justin Blackmon & David Wilson?

What happens if the Browns feel that the best player on the board when it's their turn is Claiborne?

Yea, they know they're in desperate need of offensive skill players, but as someone once said "at some point, who is actually better matters more than who is best value."
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Posted: 3/29/2012 2:45 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


PROS:

So you're fine with sticking with Colt...

AA:

No, I'm not.  The day after he was drafted, I said he'd make a very good backup qb in this league.  I've probably posted that same sentiment two dozen times since then.

I don't think he is anyone's answer as a franchise qb.

But the ONE guy the Browns went after to fit that bill was Griffin.  And failing that option, it doesn't mean the Browns must steer themselves to any port in the storm.  They didn't make an effort to grab Flynn (whether Flynn wanted to entertain Cleveland or not), and they may feel that while Tannehill and Weeden are possibilities, those guys may need a year or two to see if they're even competent.  

No, they're sticking with McCoy FOR THE MOMENT.  I'd just as soon the club doesn't play the jilted lover and lunge after someone, ANYONE as an alternative. 

PROS:

ESPN was on this morning and McShay said he thinks Tannehill is a top 10 pick.

AA:

Yep, and through draft season, the drum beats for everyone eventually.  It's like Browns fans are soooo devastated from not getting Griffin that they'll eat up any latest great news about another prospect.  A guy who has been projected at around their 22nd pick is now being rationalized as good enough to warrant 4th.

Ya know, the Vikings and Titans fell into that trap last year, and they weren't even in the top 5.

PROS:

Will need some time but has loads of talent. His receivers dropped 65 passes last year or his stats would have been off the charts.

AA:

Hmmm, that's the same thing the Colt syncophants were telling us.

PROS:

... but if we're stuck at #4 my pick would be the QB.

AA:

And then the Browns would be the ones stuck with a QB for the next four years.

Yes, Nikki said she loved New York and is never coming back.  The love of my life is gone!

But ya know, that Zelda is a pretty good cook, and she's always very considerate.   And everyone says she has a great personality.  

I COULD be referring to Colt.... or maybe Ryan.
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Posted: 3/29/2012 2:58 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 



Aardvark wrote: PROS:

So you're fine with sticking with Colt...

AA:

No, I'm not.  The day after he was drafted, I said he'd make a very good backup qb in this league.  I've probably posted that same sentiment two dozen times since then.

I don't think he is anyone's answer as a franchise qb.

But the ONE guy the Browns went after to fit that bill was Griffin.  And failing that option, it doesn't mean the Browns must steer themselves to any port in the storm.  They didn't make an effort to grab Flynn (whether Flynn wanted to entertain Cleveland or not), and they may feel that while Tannehill and Weeden are possibilities, those guys may need a year or two to see if they're even competent.  

No, they're sticking with McCoy FOR THE MOMENT.  I'd just as soon the club doesn't play the jilted lover and lunge after someone, ANYONE as an alternative. 

PROS:

ESPN was on this morning and McShay said he thinks Tannehill is a top 10 pick.

AA:

Yep, and through draft season, the drum beats for everyone eventually.  It's like Browns fans are soooo devastated from not getting Griffin that they'll eat up any latest great news about another prospect.  A guy who has been projected at around their 22nd pick is now being rationalized as good enough to warrant 4th.

Ya know, the Vikings and Titans fell into that trap last year, and they weren't even in the top 5.

PROS:

Will need some time but has loads of talent. His receivers dropped 65 passes last year or his stats would have been off the charts.

AA:

Hmmm, that's the same thing the Colt syncophants were telling us.

PROS:

... but if we're stuck at #4 my pick would be the QB.

AA:

And then the Browns would be the ones stuck with a QB for the next four years.

Yes, Nikki said she loved New York and is never coming back.  The love of my life is gone!

But ya know, that Zelda is a pretty good cook, and she's always very considerate.   And everyone says she has a great personality.  

I COULD be referring to Colt.... or maybe Ryan.
SD:

This isn't RG3 rebound , and I didn't fall down and bump my head ,  but view Tanneyhill as if Luck and RG3 weren't in this draft  and view his years of expereince vs his upside .

Big athletic white QB's are as rare as white  cornerbacks .

This kid ran a 4'6 forty  but is raw as hell  in experience .

That can be gained ,  but you can't coach physical athleticism and an arm .

There is nothing out there on the horizon next year  by virtue of what we missed on these last two drafts ,  so stretch a little and project what a kid like this value would be returning next year to College ,  and  you could project a Cam newton type season  as he would be the best athlete on the field ..

It is a reach no argument there ,, but  we're too stuppid to pick em when their sitting there  see Snachez  Rottenberger and Aron Rodgers ,, two inept to trade up vs competition see RG3   and the guys we picked as perfect turned into shyte see Couch Quinn .

So reach for all they're worth  all else has failed ..

Actually get a kid with talent and groom him  while we expend this cannon fodder all around him .

We have QB gurus up the ying yang , let em earn their keep and teach somebody something .


SoulDawg
WAR : OUR TIME HAS COME
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Posted: 3/29/2012 5:16 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


SD:

This isn't RG3 rebound , and I didn't fall down and bump my head

AA:

I'll prefer to see the X-rays, please.

SD:

but view Tanneyhill as if Luck and RG3 weren't in this draft  and view his years of expereince vs his upside .

AA:

No question that Luck and Griffin are extraordinary talents in virtually any draft year.

But what you're saying is that in many other years, Tannehill might project as the first qb taken.

Nope.  I see him as the same reach as what the Jags, Titans and Vikes did last year. 

I see Tannehill as on par with guys who went in the high teens and 20's.  Some have been good (Freeman, Flacco, Rogers), others  not so good (Boller, Quinn, Losman, Grossman). 

Tannehill would have needed another year where he had 25 td's and 6 int's, to show that much improvement over all the picks he coughed up before that transformative season.

It isn't like we discovered hidden abilities in this guy to drive up his value.  It isn't like he was a stunning revelation at the Combine or at A&M's Pro Day where so many came away with "I had concerns about.... but he sure answered those and won me over!"

No, Tannehill's stock shot up because they announced that last call is in ten minutes, you've had enough shots to create your own special shot glass pyramid, and you've convinced yourself that there's something pretty steamy about the way Zelda wears those Birkenstocks. 

The doctor just put your xrays up against the light, took all of 3/4's of a second to look and gave a slightly unprofessional "Whoa, Nellie!"

SD:

Big athletic white QB's are as rare as white  cornerbacks .

AA:

Big, athletic white QB's are rare.

White cornerbacks live in the same fairy land with unicorns.

SD:

This kid ran a 4'6 forty  but is raw as hell  in experience .

That can be gained ,  but you can't coach physical athleticism and an arm .

AA:

And if the Browns had a fine 32 year old qb and were thinking about replacing him in three years, Tannehill would make sense... with a second pick in the first round.

Not the fourth pick in the draft.

SD:

It is a reach no argument there

AA:

Thank you, Ozzie, and I know you'll be happy with Kyle.

And that was in the high teens.
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Posted: 3/29/2012 8:36 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 


All the mocks are saying Tannehill is a top 10 pick because that's most likely where he's gonna go.  Almost to a man they had him graded as a 2nd or even 3rd round pick by his play. 

He hasn't been rushed into the top 10 because everybody suddenly found out a few lost tapes of him demonstrating more ability that the 19 games they already had.  He's being rushed up the boards because some fool team is gonna grab him this year like somebody was stupid enough to take Ponder and Locker in the top half of last years first round.
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Posted: 3/29/2012 9:03 PM

RE: Pollyanna drops by, gets capped by DC Danny Snyder 



lbsouth1 wrote: All the mocks are saying Tannehill is a top 10 pick because that's most likely where he's gonna go.  Almost to a man they had him graded as a 2nd or even 3rd round pick by his play. 

He hasn't been rushed into the top 10 because everybody suddenly found out a few lost tapes of him demonstrating more ability that the 19 games they already had.  He's being rushed up the boards because some fool team is gonna grab him this year like somebody was stupid enough to take Ponder and Locker in the top half of last years first round.
SD:

Don't kid yourself , the frenzy will reach a pitch that either the browns or Miami will make him the third player off the board.


SoulDawg
WAR : OUR TIME HAS COME
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