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Looking at different senarios

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Posted: 12/20/2012 10:33 AM

Looking at different senarios 


I know many people are out there trying to figure out what time the sun needs to go down for the Saints to remain in the playoff hunt.  I still think it is a long shot, so I will think outside the box.

If you are like me you cannot root for the Saints to lose, so how do you maximize value for the rest of the season.

Yes I am bored.

Assuming the Saints win the final two games they will finish with an 8-8 record. 

At the present time 13 teams are pretty much guaranteed to pick ahead of the Saints and 12 teams will pick after the Saints.  So the Saints will pick somewhere between 14-20. 

So what would be the best senario.

Giants win one or two of their final 2 games. 9-7 or 10-6
Dallas loses to the Saints and beats the Redskins. 9-7
Redskins wins against the Eagles and loses to the Cowboys. 9-7
---------------One of these three teams will win the East--------------------------

Rams win their final 2 games (won't happen) 8-7-1
Chicago wins one of their final games. 9-7
Minnesota wins one of their final games. 9-7
---------------One of these teams will win a Wildcard------------------------------

Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh, beats Baltimore 9-7
Pittsburgh wins final two games. 9-7
------------------One goes to the Playoffs------------------------------------------

8 Senarios-3 Playoff Spots means the difference in 5 Spots in the Draft.  So each senario that happens move the Saints one spot closer to the Top 15. 

My prediction is that we will pick 16th or 17th.

We will finish 2nd in the South which means @ Chicago and probably Skins at home in 2013.

Saint Tiger

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Posted: 12/20/2012 4:29 PM

Re: Looking at different senarios 


The difference between the 14th pick and the 20th pick in the first round is a mid-round third round pick.

So say the Saints were picking 14th and another team sitting at 19th or 20th wanted to trade up.  The Saints could trade down take the 19th or 20th pick and also pick up the 83rd pick.

So under that senario the Saints would have:

Pick 19
Pick 46
Pick 78
Pick 83

4 picks in the top 83 picks.  If they kept the pick they would have 3 picks in the top 78.

Saint Tiger

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Posted: 12/20/2012 5:09 PM

RE: Looking at different senarios 


www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000...ayton-in-dallas

This guy is saying he thinks the Saints better lose to have more of a chance to keep Payton; they would be less likely to ditch Garrett.
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Posted: 12/21/2012 6:03 AM

RE: Looking at different senarios 


This is a little bit of a thread jack, but I think of it like this. 

I am not too concerned about Payton wanting to leave.  The truth is if he does then he does.  He had a fair contract in New Orleans and contract that was thrown out because of a technicality. 

I understand the spirit of the clause was to insure that Loomis was not fired and that Payton was still allowed to work with a GM that he was on the same page with. 

"Payton didn't want to be sitting there lobbying to keep a Colston and have another GM say lets find a cheaper option".

Brees indicated the other day that he felt like that Payton would be back and I think that he will.  If he chooses not to come back it is not the end of the world.  I think that a lot of people will look at this year and say that we need Payton at the helm to drive the ship. 

I look at a couple of different things going forward.  2012 will never happen again.  Going into 2013 if Payton is not back I had the reigns to Vitt he has the experience with this team and they really have not played that bad except for the Giants game.  They made mistakes which can be corrected.  Vitt will be there from Day One and that will be a difference.

The main key from where I sit is that Drew has missed his relationship with Payton, but even that will get better going into next year.  Even he needed time to adjust.  This too would be different in 2013.  He would know Payton is gone.  There will not be this feeling of I wish I could call my friend.  Almost like the grieving process after a death.

The thing Payton will have to realize is that in Dallas he will not have Drew.  So it works both ways and may be at the Heart of what drives this situation with Payton. 

If Payton feels like he has something to prove them maybe he does leave and tries to prove that it is his system that made Drew successful and that he can insert Romo in the same system and get similar results.

If Payton feels like Brees and himself still have unfinished business and that they have something to prove to the league together that 2012 was a fluke then I could see that senario.

This is more about Payton as a man.  He has an agreement with Benson.  So this cannot be about asking for more money although he could feel like he fell on the sword and wants to recoup some of the money lost during the 2012 season.  This decision will ultimately speak to the character of Payton and if he fails the test then I would not want him around.

Saint Tiger

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Posted: 12/23/2012 5:16 PM

Re: Looking at different senarios 



tigerterrace wrote: I know many people are out there trying to figure out what time the sun needs to go down for the Saints to remain in the playoff hunt.  I still think it is a long shot, so I will think outside the box.

If you are like me you cannot root for the Saints to lose, so how do you maximize value for the rest of the season.

Yes I am bored.

Assuming the Saints win the final two games they will finish with an 8-8 record. 

At the present time 13 teams are pretty much guaranteed to pick ahead of the Saints and 12 teams will pick after the Saints.  So the Saints will pick somewhere between 14-20. 

So what would be the best senario.

Giants win one or two of their final 2 games. 9-7 or 10-6
Dallas loses to the Saints and beats the Redskins. 9-7
Redskins wins against the Eagles and loses to the Cowboys. 9-7
---------------One of these three teams will win the East--------------------------

Rams win their final 2 games (won't happen) 8-7-1
Chicago wins one of their final games. 9-7
Minnesota wins one of their final games. 9-7
---------------One of these teams will win a Wildcard------------------------------

Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh, beats Baltimore 9-7
Pittsburgh wins final two games. 9-7
------------------One goes to the Playoffs------------------------------------------

8 Senarios-3 Playoff Spots means the difference in 5 Spots in the Draft.  So each senario that happens move the Saints one spot closer to the Top 15. 

My prediction is that we will pick 16th or 17th.

We will finish 2nd in the South which means @ Chicago and probably Skins at home in 2013.
Minnesota won at least 9-7.
Washington won 9-7.

Saint Tiger

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Posted: 12/24/2012 7:41 AM

Re: Looking at different senarios 


After the week 16 results we have moved into the draft position of between 12th and 18th.

Wins by the following helps our draft position:

Giants
Cowboys
St Louis

A win would have all 3 of those teams finish ahead of the Saints in the Overall standings.

A win by the following teams would draw them to 8 wins.  It would force a tiebreaker which would probably be a coin toss.

Miami
Pittsburgh

A loss by the Saints would have the Saints firmly behind the:

Giants
Cowboys
St Louis
 
Could put them behind

Miami
Pittsburgh

And could draw them even with

Carolina
NY Jets
San Diego
Tampa Bay

Saint Tiger

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