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A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks

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Posted: 5/27/2014 6:48 PM

A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


First of all, and this applies to everybody, everywhere and at all times: You are never paid what you're worth, but what you negotiate.  Alex Smith has been on both extreme ends of the spectrum in his career this far. He was undoubtedly the most overpaid QB in the league from 2005 - 2008, getting all of his $24M rookie-contract guaranteed money, $24.9M total, posting a terrible 11-19 record in games he started and missing an entire season to injury. Coach killer, etc. This all came from the negotiating as the #1 overall pick in 2005. 

Smith had absolutely no negotiating power and was facing a cut without a deal re-structure starting in 2009. His rookie contract was restructured for the final two years to $4M per year for 2009 & 2010. He got another year with Harbaugh in 2011, for $5M. From his performance in 2011, he got another deal but it was still modest, @ $24M/3 years for 2012 - 2014, which he's been playing under and expires after this season.

The Niners and Chiefs have benefited a lot during the last 3 years, with much better performance than Alex Smith's pay, arising from his limited negotiating power in 2009 and 2011.  In this period, Smith has been the lowest paid starting QB on a veteran contract. For the 5 seasons between 2009-2013, Smith has more wins than all but 10 QBs in the NFL and has the 9th best winning percentage of games started. This ranking INCLUDES the dumpster-fire Singletary years. 

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Reasoning about pay by starting with current top QBs in the final productive years of their careers (i.e.: Brady and Manning) is an exercise in futility and gets you nowhere. Just stop comparing Brady's (38 in 2015), Manning's (39), and Brees' (36) contracts with A. Smith's (31 in 2015) contract prospects as you will look naive and foolish if you do. A big part of these contract negotiations is solidifying the position for long period of time.

A QB that performs well on the field and has a lot of gas left in the tank simply gets paid in the NFL when his contract is up for negotiation. Just look at the contract avg. of veteran QBs in a similar age / experience level with contracts negotiated recently: Stafford (27) - $17.7M, Cutler (32) - $18.5M, Flacco (30) $20.1M , and Ryan(30) - $20.75M

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Instead of doing meaningless stats of pay/performance based on a lot of different circumstances, let's group the recently successful QBs into a few "buckets" based on their current age and status:

Old Legends - 35+ for 2015 season, will likely retire soon(ish) with current team
Brady (38), P. Manning (39), Brees (36)

Proven Veterans - 5+ years on current deals

Rodgers (32), Flacco (30), Ryan (30), Cutler (32), Romo (35), Stafford (28)

Proven Veterans - looking for 5+ year deals 1-2 years out
A. Smith (31), Roethlisberger (33), Rivers (34)
 
Proven Young Guns - Currently on Rookie contracts with franchise commitment
RG III (25), Tannehill (27),  Foles (26), Kaepernick (28), Wilson (27), Luck (26), Newton (26)

Cap Casualties - Veterans/Rookies who got a "hair cut" or will get one
E. Manning (35), Schaub (34), Palmer (36), Cassel (34), Bradford (28), Stafford (

Rookie Contract players without franchise commitment
G. Smith (25), Andy Dalton (28)

In a nutshell, 6 of the 32 teams in the NFL have a QB under contract for 5+ years with a track record and are "paying the money". About 7 teams have a pretty obvious franchise commitment to sign long-term deals with players currently on their Rookie contracts at the market rate. The remaining 19 teams have either a short term solution at QB or no solution at QB and need one.  The list of available guys in my view:

First Tier guys who'll get market rate deals
Roethlisberger
A. Smith
Rivers
E. Manning

Second Tier guys who won't be negotiating from strength
Bradford
Palmer
Schaub
Cassel
Dalton
G. Smith

There's going to be about 4 guys available that have proven they can win. This leaves about half the NFL with a strategy requiring trial & error in the meantime with either continuing internal development of guys who are currently unproven, signing a "Second Tier" FA, or winning the QB lottery. 

The Chiefs have had terrible luck in committing to long-term QB deals. I understand the trepidation and anxiety.

However, Alex, Condon, Dorsey and Co., along with Reid understand the market realities above. The negotiations are obviously in good faith at this point for the best compromise of guaranteed money, bonus and salary cap for both parties. A deal will happen and these parties will be happy about it, but fans won't be because 2014-2020 Alex Smith $$$ will be a LOT higher than 2009-2013 Alex Smith $$$.
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Posted: 5/28/2014 3:15 AM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


Smith isn't a 1st tier guy. He's not even a 2nd tier as these terms generally refer to QBs that lead a team to win. In most cases rallying the troops in comebacks, etc... He's the type of QB that excels with the right tools around him, making him basically a system QB. For that system to work he needs to have certain type of players around him, which costs money. Otherwise Smith is worthless. He needs to remember that during contract talks. I hope he stays in town but he doesn't deserve to be paid like an elite QB. He's a solid system QB, that may be a franchise guy but not the expensive kind.

Last edited 5/28/2014 3:18 AM by sithlord13

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Posted: 5/28/2014 7:42 AM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


That is perfectly stated!


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--- sithlord13 wrote:

Smith isn't a 1st tier guy. He's not even a 2nd tier as these terms generally refer to QBs that lead a team to win. In most cases rallying the troops in comebacks, etc... He's the type of QB that excels with the right tools around him, making him basically a system QB. For that system to work he needs to have certain type of players around him, which costs money. Otherwise Smith is worthless. He needs to remember that during contract talks. I hope he stays in town but he doesn't deserve to be paid like an elite QB. He's a solid system QB, that may be a franchise guy but not the expensive kind.

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 5/28/2014 8:13 AM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


Exactly.


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--- sithlord13 wrote:

Smith isn't a 1st tier guy. He's not even a 2nd tier as these terms generally refer to QBs that lead a team to win. In most cases rallying the troops in comebacks, etc... He's the type of QB that excels with the right tools around him, making him basically a system QB. For that system to work he needs to have certain type of players around him, which costs money. Otherwise Smith is worthless. He needs to remember that during contract talks. I hope he stays in town but he doesn't deserve to be paid like an elite QB. He's a solid system QB, that may be a franchise guy but not the expensive kind.

---------------------------------------------



“Romantic movies give unrealistic expectations to women about men and ruin relationships...  Porn has the same affect on men.”  - OchoCinco

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Posted: 5/28/2014 10:46 AM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


sithlord13 wrote: Smith isn't a 1st tier guy. He's not even a 2nd tier as these terms generally refer to QBs that lead a team to win. In most cases rallying the troops in comebacks, etc... He's the type of QB that excels with the right tools around him, making him basically a system QB. For that system to work he needs to have certain type of players around him, which costs money. Otherwise Smith is worthless. He needs to remember that during contract talks. I hope he stays in town but he doesn't deserve to be paid like an elite QB. He's a solid system QB, that may be a franchise guy but not the expensive kind.
Smith needs a pass first offensive minded coach. He hasn't had that in his career until this point. When he had Harbaugh, it was run-first. Before that, it was defensive minded coaches. If someone wants him to be producing numbers, he needs a pass first system. He has one now and in the second year of the system, he will do well, despite not the best WR corp.

I'm tired of people saying he needs everyone around him in order for him to excel when he had very little around him before and when he had some around him, he improved. People are either exaggerating how good his support was or regurgitating what other "experts" say or are guessing because they don't know how he'd do with this coaching staff and worse support. His play helped the defense, too. It kept them out of short field positions, it gave them rest, and it often led to points, albeit in 2011 they were field goals.

When it came down to the final quarter, Smith had the second most comebacks in 2011. Here, his play picked up when the defense slowed. When Charles got injured, he performed well. Where was his support there? It was when the team got so injured that it wasn't a standard team that we lost, with a big help from a defense that, too, was injured.

Second, the article wasn't putting Smith in the first tier of all QBs, it specifically removed those who are on bigger, longer contracts. That takes out those elite QBs that you are saying he is not. No one said he is/was elite, so it is tiring when someone says that we should extend him below elite level only to be countered with, "he's not elite!"
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Posted: 5/28/2014 1:19 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


Smith led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks in 2011. He led the NFL in 3rd down passing per attempt last season. His last 3 playoff games have resulted in 850 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs and 100 yards rushing. He has five straight seasons with more TDs than INTs. His team was one muffed fumble from the Super Bowl in SF. One defensive collapse from breaking a 20 year old playoff losing streak here. There are no limitations to what we can accomplish with Smith. He is not elite, but he certainly belongs in the second tier of QBs in the 8-12 type range. And thats where he should be paid.

System QB...agree this system is the best fit for him and he should remember that when talking to his agent. Alex deserves a big contract, but should still give us a hometown discount of sorts because of it. 15 mil per season would be the 11th highest for NFL QBs....thats my number.


---------------------------------------------
--- sithlord13 wrote:

Smith isn't a 1st tier guy. He's not even a 2nd tier as these terms generally refer to QBs that lead a team to win. In most cases rallying the troops in comebacks, etc... He's the type of QB that excels with the right tools around him, making him basically a system QB. For that system to work he needs to have certain type of players around him, which costs money. Otherwise Smith is worthless. He needs to remember that during contract talks. I hope he stays in town but he doesn't deserve to be paid like an elite QB. He's a solid system QB, that may be a franchise guy but not the expensive kind.

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 5/28/2014 1:41 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


He's around the 14th-16th best QB and deserves to get paid as one. And with Andy Reid as the coach, no way in hell do you overpay Alex Smith.

I wouldn't pay him more than 14-15 mil per, with an out in 3 years.
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Posted: 5/28/2014 2:45 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


I like Smith and think that we can win with him in town. Could even win a SB. However Smith isn't the reason we won 11 games. He was a factor but not as big of a factor as elite QBs. He wasn't an elite QB in 2011 when SF was coming back for wins, they weren't throwing for TDs. He wasn't making the big throws we needed in clutch comeback situations. I think Daniel showed us the importance of the system in KC. 1st or 2nd tier QBs need to win games in the air, and Smith didn't do that for us last year or for SF in 2011. I think his best game was our playoff loss and it showed that we need pay a RB like Charles, receivers that can hold the ball in tough situations, OL that gets him some time, and more importantly a defense that doesn't put him in tough clutch situations.

Without Reid and Charles, Smith could be looking for a solid veteran backup job in 2015. The primary thing going for him is that he fits what we need very well, he puts up the QB play that can get us to the win and protects the ball to help the defense, not to mention his mobility giving our OL some breathing room. However he's not good enough of a QB to warrant an elite contract. His current contract reflects his value IMO, Reid thinks Smith can do more so he could put up some more money on top but I wouldn't get close to what 1st or 2nd tier QBs make.  wouldn't go higher than 10-12 million for Smith.
mloe68 wrote: Smith led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks in 2011. He led the NFL in 3rd down passing per attempt last season. His last 3 playoff games have resulted in 850 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs and 100 yards rushing. He has five straight seasons with more TDs than INTs. His team was one muffed fumble from the Super Bowl in SF. One defensive collapse from breaking a 20 year old playoff losing streak here. There are no limitations to what we can accomplish with Smith. He is not elite, but he certainly belongs in the second tier of QBs in the 8-12 type range. And thats where he should be paid.

System QB...agree this system is the best fit for him and he should remember that when talking to his agent. Alex deserves a big contract, but should still give us a hometown discount of sorts because of it. 15 mil per season would be the 11th highest for NFL QBs....thats my number.


---------------------------------------------
--- sithlord13 wrote:

Smith isn't a 1st tier guy. He's not even a 2nd tier as these terms generally refer to QBs that lead a team to win. In most cases rallying the troops in comebacks, etc... He's the type of QB that excels with the right tools around him, making him basically a system QB. For that system to work he needs to have certain type of players around him, which costs money. Otherwise Smith is worthless. He needs to remember that during contract talks. I hope he stays in town but he doesn't deserve to be paid like an elite QB. He's a solid system QB, that may be a franchise guy but not the expensive kind.

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 5/28/2014 2:53 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


Alex wont be agreeing with anything less than $16 million.

No matter what, contract or tag, Alex will be a Chiefs next season making $16m

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Posted: 5/28/2014 3:14 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


Actually he had 6 comebacks, to include the NO playoff game in 2011. He did throw in getting them down to be able to score in each of those games. In 2 of them he threw the go ahead 4th quarter TD. In the other ones he completed passes setting up the easy run TD. You can click on the game links from this link and scroll to them in 2011.

http://www.pro-football-refere...player=SmitAl03

Remembering too that SF was and still is a run first offense. Funny how everyone thought Kaep would out perform Smith easily now that he was the QB allowing them to get rid of Smith. Yet that team still runs first etc. I still think 16 mil gets it done. 5 for 80 million, option 6th year with 52 million guaranteed. I would not go higher and as Balto alluded to in another thread, we can have him play for 8 mil this year, 16 next and 17.6 the year after that with tags. He will then be 34 and good look getting a long or big time contract at 34. We could see him play out this year too just to be sure where we are with him and the outlook of him being our QB. If after 3 years, we will have developed (hopefully) Murray, Bray or a pick to be able to take over if we do have to tag him for 2 years straight.
sithlord13 wrote: I like Smith and think that we can win with him in town. Could even win a SB. However Smith isn't the reason we won 11 games. He was a factor but not as big of a factor as elite QBs. He wasn't an elite QB in 2011 when SF was coming back for wins, they weren't throwing for TDs. He wasn't making the big throws we needed in clutch comeback situations. I think Daniel showed us the importance of the system in KC. 1st or 2nd tier QBs need to win games in the air, and Smith didn't do that for us last year or for SF in 2011. I think his best game was our playoff loss and it showed that we need pay a RB like Charles, receivers that can hold the ball in tough situations, OL that gets him some time, and more importantly a defense that doesn't put him in tough clutch situations.

Without Reid and Charles, Smith could be looking for a solid veteran backup job in 2015. The primary thing going for him is that he fits what we need very well, he puts up the QB play that can get us to the win and protects the ball to help the defense, not to mention his mobility giving our OL some breathing room. However he's not good enough of a QB to warrant an elite contract. His current contract reflects his value IMO, Reid thinks Smith can do more so he could put up some more money on top but I wouldn't get close to what 1st or 2nd tier QBs make.  wouldn't go higher than 10-12 million for Smith.
mloe68 wrote: Smith led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks in 2011. He led the NFL in 3rd down passing per attempt last season. His last 3 playoff games have resulted in 850 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs and 100 yards rushing. He has five straight seasons with more TDs than INTs. His team was one muffed fumble from the Super Bowl in SF. One defensive collapse from breaking a 20 year old playoff losing streak here. There are no limitations to what we can accomplish with Smith. He is not elite, but he certainly belongs in the second tier of QBs in the 8-12 type range. And thats where he should be paid.

System QB...agree this system is the best fit for him and he should remember that when talking to his agent. Alex deserves a big contract, but should still give us a hometown discount of sorts because of it. 15 mil per season would be the 11th highest for NFL QBs....thats my number.


---------------------------------------------
--- sithlord13 wrote:

Smith isn't a 1st tier guy. He's not even a 2nd tier as these terms generally refer to QBs that lead a team to win. In most cases rallying the troops in comebacks, etc... He's the type of QB that excels with the right tools around him, making him basically a system QB. For that system to work he needs to have certain type of players around him, which costs money. Otherwise Smith is worthless. He needs to remember that during contract talks. I hope he stays in town but he doesn't deserve to be paid like an elite QB. He's a solid system QB, that may be a franchise guy but not the expensive kind.

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 5/28/2014 3:24 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


Let me also say that if he does get signed for 12-15 million, I would be very happy. I would take that as a sign he wants to win but not break the bank in doing so. This allows the Chiefs to get after other players in FA, to extend etc.  I just think it will be around 16 million with a higher guranteed money then to compensate for the lower yearly average the Chiefs want.
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Posted: 5/28/2014 3:38 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


His comeback performances aren't worth the money he's asking for. I doubt there's anyone on this board who thinks Smith should be sent away. The problem is signing him for the right amount. No team has to pay more than Smith's current contract for those comebacks. It was the 2011 season that got him his current deal, the same 2011 season shouldn't be enough to get him double that contract. 

Reid is pass oriented but not really QB oriented, he likes to use his backs in passing game a lot which doesn't really require an 8 figure salary for the guy throwing the ball. I don't mind waiting this year to see what Smith can do with a year under his belt with Reid. Right now I don't think he's worth the numbers mentioned, may be he'll be worth it next year.
kkuenn wrote: Actually he had 6 comebacks, to include the NO playoff game in 2011. He did throw in getting them down to be able to score in each of those games. In 2 of them he threw the go ahead 4th quarter TD. In the other ones he completed passes setting up the easy run TD. You can click on the game links from this link and scroll to them in 2011.

http://www.pro-football-refere...player=SmitAl03

Remembering too that SF was and still is a run first offense. Funny how everyone thought Kaep would out perform Smith easily now that he was the QB allowing them to get rid of Smith. Yet that team still runs first etc. I still think 16 mil gets it done. 5 for 80 million, option 6th year with 52 million guaranteed. I would not go higher and as Balto alluded to in another thread, we can have him play for 8 mil this year, 16 next and 17.6 the year after that with tags. He will then be 34 and good look getting a long or big time contract at 34. We could see him play out this year too just to be sure where we are with him and the outlook of him being our QB. If after 3 years, we will have developed (hopefully) Murray, Bray or a pick to be able to take over if we do have to tag him for 2 years straight.
sithlord13 wrote: I like Smith and think that we can win with him in town. Could even win a SB. However Smith isn't the reason we won 11 games. He was a factor but not as big of a factor as elite QBs. He wasn't an elite QB in 2011 when SF was coming back for wins, they weren't throwing for TDs. He wasn't making the big throws we needed in clutch comeback situations. I think Daniel showed us the importance of the system in KC. 1st or 2nd tier QBs need to win games in the air, and Smith didn't do that for us last year or for SF in 2011. I think his best game was our playoff loss and it showed that we need pay a RB like Charles, receivers that can hold the ball in tough situations, OL that gets him some time, and more importantly a defense that doesn't put him in tough clutch situations.

Without Reid and Charles, Smith could be looking for a solid veteran backup job in 2015. The primary thing going for him is that he fits what we need very well, he puts up the QB play that can get us to the win and protects the ball to help the defense, not to mention his mobility giving our OL some breathing room. However he's not good enough of a QB to warrant an elite contract. His current contract reflects his value IMO, Reid thinks Smith can do more so he could put up some more money on top but I wouldn't get close to what 1st or 2nd tier QBs make.  wouldn't go higher than 10-12 million for Smith.
mloe68 wrote: Smith led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks in 2011. He led the NFL in 3rd down passing per attempt last season. His last 3 playoff games have resulted in 850 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs and 100 yards rushing. He has five straight seasons with more TDs than INTs. His team was one muffed fumble from the Super Bowl in SF. One defensive collapse from breaking a 20 year old playoff losing streak here. There are no limitations to what we can accomplish with Smith. He is not elite, but he certainly belongs in the second tier of QBs in the 8-12 type range. And thats where he should be paid.

System QB...agree this system is the best fit for him and he should remember that when talking to his agent. Alex deserves a big contract, but should still give us a hometown discount of sorts because of it. 15 mil per season would be the 11th highest for NFL QBs....thats my number.


---------------------------------------------
--- sithlord13 wrote:

Smith isn't a 1st tier guy. He's not even a 2nd tier as these terms generally refer to QBs that lead a team to win. In most cases rallying the troops in comebacks, etc... He's the type of QB that excels with the right tools around him, making him basically a system QB. For that system to work he needs to have certain type of players around him, which costs money. Otherwise Smith is worthless. He needs to remember that during contract talks. I hope he stays in town but he doesn't deserve to be paid like an elite QB. He's a solid system QB, that may be a franchise guy but not the expensive kind.

---------------------------------------------
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Posted: 5/28/2014 3:49 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


People need to stop lying to themselves about smith. He's a game manager!! That's not to say that we can't win with him but we're not gonna win because of him either. At least not consistently.
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Posted: 5/28/2014 6:24 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


Chiefs do have the option of the tag, which is what the did with Albert. They will do the same here. All could argue about worth it, but the Finance office will say accept this REASONABLE offer, or we rent you for more.
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Posted: 5/28/2014 7:29 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


I can agree with this.


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--- jaa1025 wrote:

I wouldn't pay him more than 14-15 mil per, with an out in 3 years.

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Posted: 5/28/2014 7:33 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 



The play off game in Indy says otherwise. No Charles and Smith had a franchise record game.

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--- jmo58 wrote:

People need to stop lying to themselves about smith. He's a game manager!! That's not to say that we can't win with him but we're not gonna win because of him either. At least not consistently.

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Posted: 6/2/2014 3:21 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 



kkuenn wrote: Let me also say that if he does get signed for 12-15 million, I would be very happy. I would take that as a sign he wants to win but not break the bank in doing so. This allows the Chiefs to get after other players in FA, to extend etc.  I just think it will be around 16 million with a higher guranteed money then to compensate for the lower yearly average the Chiefs want.
You are clearly in the "roll-the-dice" camp, or think the Chiefs are "rolling-the-dice" with Smith as it is, because there is no way he signs for that on his "money" contract.

I have yet to see evidence that Chiefs' brass, coaches, Smith, Condon or other NFL organizations share your view, but we'll find out.

Chiefs have to either pay the man or roll the dice at QB for the foreseeable future.
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Posted: 6/2/2014 4:29 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 


That we still lost.  noidea

ChiefsFan79 wrote:
The play off game in Indy says otherwise. No Charles and Smith had a franchise record game.

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--- jmo58 wrote:

People need to stop lying to themselves about smith. He's a game manager!! That's not to say that we can't win with him but we're not gonna win because of him either. At least not consistently.

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“Romantic movies give unrealistic expectations to women about men and ruin relationships...  Porn has the same affect on men.”  - OchoCinco

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Posted: 6/2/2014 11:05 PM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 



Its a great point and why we need to invest in the players that helped get us an unbelievable 44 road playoff points and let go of the major culprits in giving up 45 points. Demps, Lewis and Robinson were the worst three players on the field and now all gone. Jackson could not even get on the field and now gone. Its a start.

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--- Snupey wrote:

That we still lost.  noidea

ChiefsFan79 wrote:
The play off game in Indy says otherwise. No Charles and Smith had a franchise record game.

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--- jmo58 wrote:

People need to stop lying to themselves about smith. He's a game manager!! That's not to say that we can't win with him but we're not gonna win because of him either. At least not consistently.

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Posted: 6/3/2014 10:14 AM

Re: A few things to consider during Smith #11 contract talks 



sithlord13 wrote: I think his best game was our playoff loss and it showed that we need pay a RB like Charles, receivers that can hold the ball in tough situations, OL that gets him some time, and more importantly a defense that doesn't put him in tough clutch situations.

But Charles didn't play that game.
So what does he have to do with Smith's performance in the Playoffs?

Our receivers and line weren't exactly stellar either.

The Defense collapsed, that's not putting him in tough clutch situations, that's pulling the rug out from under him.
A tough clutch situation that a "several inches to the left step" by Bowe would have given us a shot at a FG and the win.
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