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Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes...

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Posted: 07/05/2014 12:22 AM

Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


How will the other teams in our division fair this year....

Oakland -  I got them at 6-10.  The roster is filled with noteworthy names, but it has been built through free agency meaning they are now the 8th oldest team in the league, and extremely questionable at QB to boot.  I have a sneaking suspicion MJD has a comeback year and does very well for them, but ultimately they don't have a #1 receiver or a TE to worry about, so like in Jacksonville I think it's much to do about nothing. Their defense could be pretty good if Mack has a DROY type season and Woodley plays about 10x better than he has the last 2 years, which is doubtful considering he's moving out of the 3-4 OLB spot for the first time in his pro career.  DJ Hayden is perpetually injured, Charles Woodson is an old man, Charles Rogers is going to be exposed the same way Jammer was at age 33.  I could see them starting fast with some cupcake teams early on, but ultimately there is no way you can call them legitimate contenders for this division....at this point.

Kansas City - Playing it safe at 8-8.  A very tough one to gauge. Offensively they've added pretty much nothing, in fact the defense that carried them hand and foot along their fast start last year is going to have to re-double it's efforts.  It's basically Bowe and nobody else as far as receivers, I do like Travis Kelce some but he's coming off an ACL and has done nothing to warrant more than a glance.  They lost McCluster, they lost Albert, they lost Asamoah....yuck.  Defensively they are just as intimidating in the front 7, with 2 of the best pass rushers in the game, one of the best ILBs in the game, and a top 3 NT (yes I will eat crow on that one).  But their secondary is now a huge question mark, their attempts to copy the Seahawks strategy has put them in a position where they have no real talent back there, and the one guy that has some talent (Smith) got a DUI in June and could be looking at a little time off.   It's also worth mentioning that despite winning 11 games last year, they only had 1 win against a playoff team.  

Denver - Hell with it, 13-3.  I will never bet against Peyton Manning in the regular season again.  They get Clady back too which is something nobody is talking about. Only real weaknesses I see are ILB which is a horrid situation, potentially the CBs with Harris coming off an ACL, Roby being as raw as rookies get, and Talib being a prime candidate to go full Gaither after getting his pay day.

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Posted: 07/05/2014 6:07 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


Oakland is Oakland, until they can get some consistancy at QB and HC, they're not going anywhere, and the old man movement in the offseason would of made sense if they were a contender.

KC beat up on 2nd string QBs the first half of last year, got an over inflated record, and nose dived later, your 8-8
is valid
 
Denver will be tough, they are beatable, we have shown that, the Thomas boys are Awesome, need to do a better job on them

IMO the Chargers will be the most improved team in the division Because of
1: 2nd year under McCoy
2: Getting alot of key people back from (I)
3: Drafted players of need
4: The additions of D. Brown and Flowers will prove to be huge


To be a Contender, the Luxury of carrying Dead Weight is not an Option
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Posted: 07/05/2014 8:11 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


Denver should have the best record, followed by the Chargers.  I think we'll see an improved Charger team, but the schedule is really difficult.  Oakland is a bottom dweller and KC is okay, but not feeling that they will beat out the Chargers.
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Posted: 07/05/2014 9:55 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


Great analysis Syx! Thanks! I agree with your assessment!

I have Denver winning the division with the Chargers getting a Wild Card.

Chargers get nine wins for the regular season. If King Dunlap can stay healthy, which we all know probably isn't going to happen, but if they can at least protect Rivers' blindside, and give him time, the Chargers can make some waves this season. Our secondary is the best it's been in a long time. Should be fun! Can't wait!

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Posted: 07/05/2014 10:55 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


The schedule is brutal, but it's brutal for everyone in the AFCW. Good call 'Honk. I think the Bolts are 2nd in the division with 9 wins, but I don' t see a WC coming out of the West. 2 AFCW wild cards last year, 2 from the same division this year in Cincinnati and Baltimore this year with Pittsburgh winning  the division.
Chargerhonk wrote: Great analysis Syx! Thanks! I agree with your assessment!

I have Denver winning the division with the Chargers getting a Wild Card.

Chargers get nine wins for the regular season. If King Dunlap can stay healthy, which we all know probably isn't going to happen, but if they can at least protect Rivers' blindside, and give him time, the Chargers can make some waves this season. Our secondary is the best it's been in a long time. Should be fun! Can't wait!

Last edited 07/05/2014 11:03 AM by WesChandler

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Posted: 07/05/2014 12:19 PM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 



Bolt4ever wrote: Denver should have the best record, followed by the Chargers.  I think we'll see an improved Charger team, but the schedule is really difficult.  Oakland is a bottom dweller and KC is okay, but not feeling that they will beat out the Chargers.
I gave KC 8-8, mostly because of Andy Reid just finding ways to win.   But really I would not be surprised at all if they ended up in the cellar. 

Last year their defense draaaagged them to that flukish start, and it was well assisted by playing backup QBs like JEFF TUEL, Jason Campbell, Case Keenum, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in games they won by as little as 1 point.  And their offense is actually WORSE this year, their O-line got hit in FA, they lost McCluster who used to kill us, they have a handful of mediocre TEs and I think they're actually expecting Jenkins to start at WR week 1....this is a guy I truly doubt could even make our 53 man roster.

The strategy is simple, stack the box with 8 guys against Charles.  Double team Bowe If you must, any team with a good #1 CB should be able to handle him at this point in his career.  And dare the thoroughly mediocre Alex Smith to beat you "left handed" as they say.  

With this schedule, 4-12 is not outside the realm of possibility for KC.  Especially if they sustain any key injuries on defense.

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Posted: 07/05/2014 9:12 PM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


I pretty much agree overall with you Vise, good post.

I think that two factors will play into Oakland's record.  And like you I think QB play will be key for them.  But not the only key factor. IMO the coaching must improve as well.  Both HC Allen and OC Olson IMO have been inconsistent in their game management and play calling (i.e. game planning).

Schaub will start the season but IMO Carr will finish it.  That said I think they could easily be looking at a 4-12 type season given the strength of their schedule.  Long term wise I think Carr has everything you want in a franchise QB, but he doesn't have a whole lot around him in terms of a team.

I don't see either Allen or Olson coaching the team next year and McKenzie is also on thin ice as well.

KC is the enigma of the division.  They have enough talent to play with anyone.  But clearly the strength of their team is very much what Syx says, it's in their front 7.  This year their secondary does look like the weak point in their team, but that said they have some talent in the secondary.  

Last year Cooper was a rookie starter and as such he made several key rookie mistakes that cost them.  He's got size, good speed and athleticism.  The question will be how good will he play?  Will he take that next step up the development ladder that rookies tend to make in their second year?  If he does he could be very good.

They drafted Phillip Gaines who IMO could eventually be a real steal in this last draft.  He's looked very good in OTAs and IMO will be contending for a start next year.  But I also feel he can contribute this year as well.

The question mark in the secondary is at safety.  They have Berry who is a bit of a streaky player but, I think they need help there. 

They also signed Brandon Jones off of waivers from the Chargers and he had a very strong OTA with the Chargers at LCB and slot.  He can contribute as a possible nickel or dime DB this year.

IMO Denver looks like a 11-5 maybe even a 10-6 team to me.  Their defense will again depend upon how good their pass rush is.  But IMO the weakness last year was at LB and still is.  Particularly at ILB.  I still see them vulnerable to the run.  It all depends upon how well Wolfe and Knighton both return from injury on their dline.

I see the Chargers as a legitimate contender for the division crown.  I expect the Chargers to go 11-5 or 10-6 this year if they can stay relatively healthy.

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Posted: 07/06/2014 9:51 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 



beachbolt wrote: IMO Denver looks like a 11-5 maybe even a 10-6 team to me.  Their defense will again depend upon how good their pass rush is.  But IMO the weakness last year was at LB and still is.  Particularly at ILB.  I still see them vulnerable to the run.  It all depends upon how well Wolfe and Knighton both return from injury on their dline.


I see the Chargers as a legitimate contender for the division crown.  I expect the Chargers to go 11-5 or 10-6 this year if they can stay relatively healthy.

Denver runs a ton of nickel, so MLB isnt as big as it is for most teams.

It's a concern, yes, but nothing massive, the run defense was great pretty much all year despite being decimated with injuries. Run-defense isnt something to be worried about especially with Ward whose great vs the run.

Knighton isnt coming off injury, Vickerson is who will be lucky to start, if he even makes the team for that matter.

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Posted: 07/06/2014 11:22 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 



Heyward4MVP wrote:

 

Denver runs a ton of nickel, so MLB isnt as big as it is for most teams.

It's a concern, yes, but nothing massive, the run defense was great pretty much all year despite being decimated with injuries. Run-defense isnt something to be worried about especially with Ward whose great vs the run.

Knighton isnt coming off injury, Vickerson is who will be lucky to start, if he even makes the team for that matter.
Well that depends on the type of nickel, if you're running a 4-2-5 you need 2 LBs on the field with good  range and coverage skills.  Or you could sub one of those 2 ILBs for a safety in which case your making yourself very vulnerable against the run. 

 photo nickel_1_zps5c3d745d.png

I know when we run nickel or dime typically Butler stays on the field no matter what, and that's part of the reason we drafted Te'o so high as well, his coverage skills as a 3rd down LB in sub packages.

Last edited 07/06/2014 11:27 AM by syxwunine

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Posted: 07/07/2014 9:04 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


The biggest question there is to find out as far as the matchups between San Diego and Denver goes is whether or not Denver has added enough defensively to prevent San Diego from being "multiple" on offense, like they were able to do successfully last year when Mathews and the offensive line were not injured.  If the Bolts are at full strength offensively when they face Denver, Denver is going to have to do something differently, and much better, than they were able to do last year in trying to take enough away from San Diego's variety on offense.  Heck, even when the Bolts were severely injured offensively in Denver's playoff win, by the 4th quarter, the Bolts had figured out how to attack Denver successfully while severely hampered, and they quite literally carved up Denver's defense that quarter.  They were just too far behind at that late stage for it to end up being enough.

For whatever reasons (and I would LOVE to one day hear all the people involved tell us the details of it), the Paganos know how to limit Manning on offense.  Now, nobody can flat out stop him.  But the Paganos seem to know what few to nobody else knows about how to limit his effectiveness and production.  Which is why being able to be multiple on offense was key to San Diego having the success they had against Denver last year, including the win in Denver.  Because Manning wasn't able to drive his team to scores on virtually every one of their possessions (like they could do against most other opponents), San Diego's ball control style offensively, both on the ground and through the air, was able to give them control of the game.

So while the rest of the world focuses on just what happens when Manning is on the field, if Denver hasn't found ways to limit San Diego's versatility on offense, they're going to be hard pressed to come away with wins in those matchups.

---
"I've never been around a 24-year-old 12-year vet."

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Posted: 07/10/2014 3:33 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


John Pagano has had consistent success against Manning because he is one of the more creative defensive minds in the game.  He took a lot of what he learned from Wade Phillips and has expanded upon it adding his own "hybrid" wrinkles.

You can't just line up and play Peyton.  He's just too good.  He's made a HOF career off of being able to diagnose defenses before the snap.  Everything he does has a purpose to help him to that end.  Even his famous "Omaha" is designed to create a rhythm to lull the defense into before changing it up at a key moment.  

Accordingly how Pagano beats Peyton is via disguise and confusion.  Pagano himself lulls Manning with "looks" before springing a variation on him.  It creates doubt in Peyton as he can never be really sure if he is reading it right.  You beat Peyton by making him hold the ball that extra second to give your pass rush time to get to him.  Manning's QB rating drops significantly when he gets moved off his spot, or is forced to hesitate because the play wasn't unfolding as he expected.  Most of all He hates pressure up the middle.  

People think I'm nuts for saying Luiget is going to see more time inside, especially on passing downs.  But IMO this will be a calculated move by Pagano designed specifically for Manning.  You put both Luiget and Reyes inside and that pocket is going to get pushed.  Denver's strength used to be their oline.  They still have a pretty good one, but it's not as good as it once was, especially inside. Now couple that with speed on the outside with Attaochu and Ingram or Law and you have the kind of pass rush that gives Manning problems.

In addition to a strong and consistent pass rush you need good secondary play from the snap to force Manning to chose between holding the ball or forcing it.  Seattle didn't disguise anything.  But they have something most defenses don't.  They have outstanding pass coverage with an exceptional pass rush.  It's why I could see before the Super Bowl that Denver had no chance.  Denver's receivers, as fast as they are aren't overly physical in their play and I knew Manning would have to hold on to the ball or force it.  Both bad options.

Pagano is going to try to do something similar without the dominating physical defense like the Sea Hawks have.  Play tight coverage from the snap, get good quick inside push with the pass rush, and make Manning hesitate because he didn't read the defense correctly.  Pagano will bank on the speed outside with Law or Ingram combined with the speed and power of Attaochu to be fast enough to take advantage of that hesitation.

So it comes down to 3 elements:

1.  Pre-snap deception.  Make Peyton read something you aren't giving him, or make him unsure of what he sees.

2. Strong inside push with Luiget and Reyes to collapse the pocket and move Manning off his spot.  Peyton is even less mobile than Rivers and is far less accurate when he has been flushed from the pocket.

3. Outside speed to take advantage of the inside push and any hesitation by Manning due to Pagano's deception.

IMO they are building a defense specifically to beat Denver, knowing that if they can, it will also work against most other teams as well.  This is my problem with Flowers in this scheme.  He showed last year that if he gets beaten early he lacks the long speed to make it up.  Denver took advantage of that repeatedly.  He plays best when he has over the top safety help.  Denver schemed to isolate him and then beat him with a bad matchup.  The Chargers did exactly the same thing when they beat him with Green for that long TD.

The Charger defense also could have a very favorable LB situation if Freeney can provide a credible outside rush or if Law can be the pass rusher he was in Canada.   This will allow them to play Butler and Ingram as their 2 LBs in their nickel defense.  Both are very good when they drop.  That is the unsaid part of the Seattle defense that has been overlooked by the media but was very key in their ability to defend the pass.  Seattle's LBs are very good in their zone defense.

Last year with Teo un-able to play on passing downs, and Freeney injured the Chargers were forced to use Ingram as their primary outside rusher.  That left Butler as their best pass defending LB.  With the addition of Law, Attaochu and hopefully Freeney it will free up Ingram to play in coverage where he has shown he can play very well.

As long as they stay relatively healthy this can be a very good defense and one that can compete with Denver's offense.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 5:03 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


Peyton is a 'Perfect' example of our little forum pressure vs sack debate, we rarely sack his ass, but when we pressure him and get him off his game, (which we do better than anyone), he can be beaten!
I like your take Beach, but Pressure's are HUGE and Peyton is the poster Boy!


To be a Contender, the Luxury of carrying Dead Weight is not an Option
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Posted: 07/10/2014 9:21 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


It's psychotic to me that a guy who can talk that smartly about football, doesn't believe in QB pressure.

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Posted: 07/10/2014 10:30 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


I suppose he thinks that pressure means that Freeney makes Manning step up in the pocket who then throws a TD. According to PFF that is NOT pressure.  A "hurry" is defined as pressure that causes the play to fail, usually resulting in an incompletion or INT, and if completed is usually for little or no gain.  Pressure, if avoided and which allows the play to be completed is NOT counted as pressure by PFF.  Similarly, if a QB is hit right after he throws a completion, that is NOT counted as a "hit" because it did NOT affect the play.  So all of Freeney's pressures affected the outcome of the play in a negative (for the offense) way.  How hard is that to see for a guy who can talk smartly about football?  Psychotic, neurotic, maybe even a few more otics I can think of.
syxwunine wrote: It's psychotic to me that a guy who can talk that smartly about football, doesn't believe in QB pressure.
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Posted: 07/10/2014 10:39 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


It still goes back to I'm right your wrong even if it's 1,000,000 to 1!


To be a Contender, the Luxury of carrying Dead Weight is not an Option
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Posted: 07/11/2014 1:38 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


You guys must have been watching some other games because Freeney had zero impact last year.  He didn't play as well as people keep saying, he was basically a non-factor.  A huge $3.5M non-factor.  He wasn't an impact player in the games he played in which was the first 4.  

He played in the Houston, Philly, TN, and Dallas games and had a total of 1 tackle and 1 assist over the entirety of those games.  LMFAO   He didn't scare anyone.   So they are paying him $3.8M this year to scare QB's?

My point is that both Reyes, and Luiget had 10 sacks between them last year as 3-4 dlinemen.  That is pretty good for dline.  They have proved they can be disruptive and can penetrate to get both pressures and sacks.

People point to Ingram as saying he hasn't played up to expectations and IMO that is correct.  But that said he got as many or more "pressures" than Freeney IMO and still doesn't get a pass, nor should he.

All I'm doing is being fair and applying the same standards to everyone.  By the standards that the Freeney supporters use if applied to English he played well last year.  In fact by those standards he outplayed Freeney.  But people still want him gone.  I'm simply saying things are what they are and trying to have it both ways just skews the perspective.
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Posted: 07/11/2014 11:36 AM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 



beachbolt wrote: You guys must have been watching some other games because Freeney had zero impact last year.  He didn't play as well as people keep saying, he was basically a non-factor.  A huge $3.5M non-factor.  He wasn't an impact player in the games he played in which was the first 4.  

He played in the Houston, Philly, TN, and Dallas games and had a total of 1 tackle and 1 assist over the entirety of those games.  LMFAO   He didn't scare anyone.   So they are paying him $3.8M this year to scare QB's?

My point is that both Reyes, and Luiget had 10 sacks between them last year as 3-4 dlinemen.  That is pretty good for dline.  They have proved they can be disruptive and can penetrate to get both pressures and sacks.

People point to Ingram as saying he hasn't played up to expectations and IMO that is correct.  But that said he got as many or more "pressures" than Freeney IMO and still doesn't get a pass, nor should he.

All I'm doing is being fair and applying the same standards to everyone.  By the standards that the Freeney supporters use if applied to English he played well last year.  In fact by those standards he outplayed Freeney.  But people still want him gone.  I'm simply saying things are what they are and trying to have it both ways just skews the perspective.

1.  BS.   Freeney was the only player doing anything worthwhile the first 3.5 games, that was the entire problem.  JJ is not a pass rusher, Ingram was out, Liuget was playing hurt, Wright was playing hurt (heel injury), Gilchrist was struggling, and lets not forget how badly Derek Cox was getting his ass kicked that we signed Crez Butler off the street and plugged him in to start!

Once again, you are blaming the wrong player for the failure of the whole unit.

2.  Nobody cares about the money, you need to get over it.  It's not like there is a better/cheaper option sitting around in FA right now.

3. Reyes' career is on the line this year, he is such a huge liability against the run that it is now overwhelming the benefit of his (inconsistent) pass rush ability.  He needs to play a lot better or DE is going to be a high priority in the '15 draft.


4. No he did not. 
Ingram: 241 snaps (inc playoffs),2 sacks, 2 QB hits, and 9 hurries.  
Freeney: 173 snaps, 1 sack, 3 QB hits, 15 hurries.

Albeit Ingram was coming off an ACL (I am a big Ingram supporter going forward), Freeney as an indivudal was better in his short time last year....even if the defense as a whole was not.


5.  No you are not.  You are ignoring important stats, hurries and snaps, in order to support your argument.  And you are intentionally forgetting that our defense as a whole just started playing better as the season went along.

Last edited 07/11/2014 11:37 AM by syxwunine

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Posted: 07/11/2014 12:04 PM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


Let's not forget that Ingram really should of been out ALL of last year and Willed his way back! A lot of people on this
Forum gave him crap for coming back early, I applaud the young man, he is going to be a mainstay for years to come!


To be a Contender, the Luxury of carrying Dead Weight is not an Option
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Posted: 07/22/2014 1:08 PM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 



syxwunine wrote: How will the other teams in our division fair this year....

Oakland -  I got them at 6-10.  The roster is filled with noteworthy names, but it has been built through free agency meaning they are now the 8th oldest team in the league, and extremely questionable at QB to boot.  I have a sneaking suspicion MJD has a comeback year and does very well for them, but ultimately they don't have a #1 receiver or a TE to worry about, so like in Jacksonville I think it's much to do about nothing. Their defense could be pretty good if Mack has a DROY type season and Woodley plays about 10x better than he has the last 2 years, which is doubtful considering he's moving out of the 3-4 OLB spot for the first time in his pro career.  DJ Hayden is perpetually injured, Charles Woodson is an old man, Charles Rogers is going to be exposed the same way Jammer was at age 33.  I could see them starting fast with some cupcake teams early on, but ultimately there is no way you can call them legitimate contenders for this division....at this point.

Kansas City - Playing it safe at 8-8.  A very tough one to gauge. Offensively they've added pretty much nothing, in fact the defense that carried them hand and foot along their fast start last year is going to have to re-double it's efforts.  It's basically Bowe and nobody else as far as receivers, I do like Travis Kelce some but he's coming off an ACL and has done nothing to warrant more than a glance.  They lost McCluster, they lost Albert, they lost Asamoah....yuck.  Defensively they are just as intimidating in the front 7, with 2 of the best pass rushers in the game, one of the best ILBs in the game, and a top 3 NT (yes I will eat crow on that one).  But their secondary is now a huge question mark, their attempts to copy the Seahawks strategy has put them in a position where they have no real talent back there, and the one guy that has some talent (Smith) got a DUI in June and could be looking at a little time off.   It's also worth mentioning that despite winning 11 games last year, they only had 1 win against a playoff team.  

Denver - Hell with it, 13-3.  I will never bet against Peyton Manning in the regular season again.  They get Clady back too which is something nobody is talking about. Only real weaknesses I see are ILB which is a horrid situation, potentially the CBs with Harris coming off an ACL, Roby being as raw as rookies get, and Talib being a prime candidate to go full Gaither after getting his pay day.

I kind of like the offseason Oakland had.  I don't think they''ll be very good next year but I love what they did in the draft for the first time in recent memory.  I also think that KC will regress and San Diego will be the main competition for Denver in the division this year.  I can see both teams in double digit wins.
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Posted: 07/22/2014 3:38 PM

Re: Alright it's July, time to talk about AFCW foes... 


If I had to make a "bold" and "unexpected" prediction, it would be this - Oakland finishes ahead of KC in the division this year.

---
"I've never been around a 24-year-old 12-year vet."

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