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TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez

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Posted: 1/9/2014 7:17 AM

TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 


The rookie right-hander has all the pitches, but what role will he play for St. Louis in 2014?

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Brian Walton
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Posted: 1/9/2014 7:25 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 


Reliever - mostly in the 8th inning - to begin the season, since we probably shouldn't count on Motte being full strength until at least June or July.  Once Motte does come back to full strength (assuming he does) they have the option of sending Martinez down to Memphis to stretch him out as a starter for, say, 4 or 5 weeks, before recalling him in late August to supplement the starting rotation a-la Michael Wacha.

Of course, if Garcia bombs out, Martinez may be needed in the rotation sooner than that, although I suspect Kelly will get first crack at filling that spot because of the Motte situation.
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Posted: 1/9/2014 7:48 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



Jmodene1 wrote: Reliever - mostly in the 8th inning - to begin the season, since we probably shouldn't count on Motte being full strength until at least June or July.  Once Motte does come back to full strength (assuming he does) they have the option of sending Martinez down to Memphis to stretch him out as a starter for, say, 4 or 5 weeks, before recalling him in late August to supplement the starting rotation a-la Michael Wacha.

Of course, if Garcia bombs out, Martinez may be needed in the rotation sooner than that, although I suspect Kelly will get first crack at filling that spot because of the Motte situation.

Totally agree JMod.  However, I still question Martinez's ability a little bit.  I know he was very good the last month but his ERA for the year in 2013 was 5.08 and he gave up more hits than innings pitched.  Hopefully he has better days ahead.

Rat
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Posted: 1/9/2014 8:02 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



RatsBuddy wrote: Totally agree JMod.  However, I still question Martinez's ability a little bit.  I know he was very good the last month but his ERA for the year in 2013 was 5.08 and he gave up more hits than innings pitched.  Hopefully he has better days ahead.

Rat
That is how you assess his "ability"?
Brian Walton
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Posted: 1/9/2014 8:06 AM

RE: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 


"While Martinez is currently pitching as a starter in winter ball and slated to come into spring camp as a starter, continuing in that role out of the gate in 2014 seems unlikely."

A few days ago we had a discussion on another thread (don't remember which,or maybe it was on the blog) concerning Mo's statement that Martinez would be coming into camp as a starter. I thought that you disagreed with the notion that the quote didn't mean the plan was for him to be in the rotation opening day.

I raise the issue not to be fussy, but because the pitching competition for rotation spots will be a big factor this spring, and I'm interested in trying to understand the situation going in. Having a clearer understanding of your take would be valuable input.
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Posted: 1/9/2014 8:13 AM

RE: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 


You were throwing around the word "intent," suggesting the Cards have no intention of letting Martinez compete for a starting job. That is clearly not the case, unless you believe they are lying. Further, you tried to read into the fact that he is starting in winter ball as proof that the Cards will not let him compete for a rotation spot this spring due to workload considerations. Stacking conjecture on top of shaky conjecture to draw a firm conclusion is what I strongly disagreed with.

My simple point is that no one knows what will happen until it happens. Coming into last year's camp, I did not think Shelby would open the season in the big league rotation, but that is exactly what transpired. In Martinez' case, my view of the most likely scenario is that he begins the season in the pen, but nothing is assured. He is a starter until they say he isn't.
Brian Walton
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Last edited 1/9/2014 8:31 AM by Domeboys

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Posted: 1/9/2014 8:45 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 


I think Mo has indicated that he wants guys like Martinez, Rosenthal (last year) and Kelly coming into camp to be conditioned as starters because it's much easier (and a shorter time frame) to go from starting to relieving than it is to go from relieving to starting.

So while the plan is likely for Martinez to start the season as our 8th inning guy, they want him to come into camp conditioned as a starter.  And there's no duplicity in that.  At the very least, it'll get him a few more spring innings before the roles start settling into place by, say, the mid-point of the ST schedule.

As for Martinez' ability: the overall 2013 picture isn't really a good measure, given that he was shaky as a starter and up-and-down a few times to boot.  A better measure is to look at what he did once he became the regular setup guy (which, ironically, was immediately after his meltdown in Colorado):  5 regular season appearances (all scoreless, with one hit and no walks allowed total) and 12 postseason appearances (9 scoreless, 3 in which he allowed runs).

His numbers for those 17 games:  17 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 15 K, 3 BB.  ERA 2.65, WHIP 0.64.

Yes, he had three games out of 17 in which he allowed runs.  But even with those three games, he wasn't just good, he was dominating.
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Posted: 1/9/2014 8:48 AM

RE: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 


OK.  I accept your position as to both Martinez's situation and our previous discussion.  Thanks. 

A staff that cannot find a spot for a Martinez in the rotation would be impressive.
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Posted: 1/9/2014 8:53 AM

RE: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



blingboy wrote: OK.  I accept your position as to both Martinez's situation and our previous discussion.  Thanks. 

A staff that cannot find a spot for a Martinez in the rotation would be impressive.
No problem. Sorry I wasn't clearer before.

I agree. Great "problems" to have.
Brian Walton
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Posted: 1/9/2014 9:55 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



Jmodene1 wrote: Reliever - mostly in the 8th inning - to begin the season, since we probably shouldn't count on Motte being full strength until at least June or July.  Once Motte does come back to full strength (assuming he does) they have the option of sending Martinez down to Memphis to stretch him out as a starter for, say, 4 or 5 weeks, before recalling him in late August to supplement the starting rotation a-la Michael Wacha.

Of course, if Garcia bombs out, Martinez may be needed in the rotation sooner than that, although I suspect Kelly will get first crack at filling that spot because of the Motte situation.
Ive never been a fan of teams shuttling young pitchers back and forth from bullpen to rotation over the course of a season.
Every circumstance is different though..
Good write up Brian..
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Posted: 1/9/2014 11:22 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



Teufelshunde4 wrote:
Jmodene1 wrote: Reliever - mostly in the 8th inning - to begin the season, since we probably shouldn't count on Motte being full strength until at least June or July.  Once Motte does come back to full strength (assuming he does) they have the option of sending Martinez down to Memphis to stretch him out as a starter for, say, 4 or 5 weeks, before recalling him in late August to supplement the starting rotation a-la Michael Wacha.

Of course, if Garcia bombs out, Martinez may be needed in the rotation sooner than that, although I suspect Kelly will get first crack at filling that spot because of the Motte situation.
Ive never been a fan of teams shuttling young pitchers back and forth from bullpen to rotation over the course of a season.
Every circumstance is different though..
Good write up Brian..
With youngin's (Miller, Wacha, Kelly), injuries (Garcia) and heavy workloads (Waino, Lynn) having a solid 6th/7th starter to possibly have planned "breaks" (if right now you're thinking this is stupid for even Waino, keep in mind what happened to Chris Carpenter after the 2011 run, 98.5M reasons to protect him a bit sure would make sense) for some of the guys to keep them fresh for October I'm a big fan of it.  
Granted, CMart would be a great 8th inning arm, but that is a huge waste of his potential.  The people who don't think that need to consider an eventual 200 innings vs. 60 innings per year isn't peanuts and popcorn with extra butter..... look at FA contracts this year and reconsider please.  

If the Cards go to a modified 6 man rotation toward the end of April, aka, each pitcher skipping a start with CMart spelling that start.... why not do it?  Even if it's with Kelly instead of CMart, so be it.  Regarding the long reliever, Lyons would be a nice change of pace for that position if Kelly somehow ends up in the rotation.
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Posted: 1/9/2014 11:26 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



Teufelshunde4 wrote: Ive never been a fan of teams shuttling young pitchers back and forth from bullpen to rotation over the course of a season.
Every circumstance is different though..
Good write up Brian..
Thanks, although DTFlush234 deserves a lot of the credit. His writeups are so comprehensive that I have evolved into waiting until he is done and then try to find a way to come at the player from a different angle. DT has been a great addition to the process this year.
Brian Walton
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Posted: 1/9/2014 10:02 PM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 


Any discussion about making Martinez the #1 prospect?
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Posted: 1/10/2014 12:23 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



tknup wrote: Any discussion about making Martinez the #1 prospect?
You can go back and read the community voting discussion pinned to the top of the board for their take. I don't recall there being much debate.

For my vote, it was sort of like overturning NFL calls on the field. I did not have compelling enough evidence to take Taveras out of the #1 spot, which he held last year, also. Martinez moved up from number 5 last year to number 2 this year. That felt right.
Brian Walton
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Posted: 1/10/2014 1:15 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 


Considering the angst we all see on the boards whenever somebody blows a game in the 8th or 9th innings, I'm amazed that there are people who still think having dominating relievers in those innings (Martinez and Rosenthal, in our case) is a "waste of talent."

Yes, they are pitching fewer innings.  But they are also pitching in twice as many games, and thus have a direct impact more often.

Last edited 1/10/2014 1:16 AM by Jmodene1

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Posted: 1/10/2014 5:22 AM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



Domeboys wrote:
tknup wrote: Any discussion about making Martinez the #1 prospect?
You can go back and read the community voting discussion pinned to the top of the board for their take. I don't recall there being much debate.

For my vote, it was sort of like overturning NFL calls on the field. I did not have compelling enough evidence to take Taveras out of the #1 spot, which he held last year, also. Martinez moved up from number 5 last year to number 2 this year. That felt right.
The community vote for #1 was before Martinez's strong post season.   I'd guess he would get more consideration now than he did then.
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Posted: 1/10/2014 12:23 PM

Re: TCN 2014 Cardinals Prospect #2: Carlos Martinez 



tknup wrote: Any discussion about making Martinez the #1 prospect?
I have often wondered that IF Carlos was 6'3' 215 lbs how would he fare in the national prospect rankings?
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